'He's the worst favourite at this year's meeting' - part two of our Cheltenham Festival Punting Club special

The 2024 Cheltenham Festival gets under way on Tuesday and our resident Punting Club judges Harry Wilson, Joe Eccles and Liam Headd return for the second part of our Punting Club special . . .

Which of the odds-on shots at this year's festival would you most want to be against?
Daniel Phillips

Joe Eccles: Lossiemouth. Barring incident I can't see State Man, Ballyburn or El Fabiolo being beaten and Sir Gino looked like a bit of a freak on Cheltenham Trials day. Fact To File is probably shorter than he should be for winning a match race at the Dublin Racing Festival and could prove vulnerable, but given her price I'll take on Lossiemouth. I think Ashroe Diamond can overturn her in the Mares' Hurdle.

Harry Wilson: Fact To File shouldn't be odds-on for the Brown Advisory. His two wins over fences have been visually impressive, but beating Zanahiyr, who didn't quite look to get home over the 2m5½f trip and isn't a natural over fences, shouldn't be anything to get excited about, while Gaelic Warrior completely capitulated last time, so I wouldn't take that form at face value. He is also unproven at three miles, unlike American Mike, who was too good for Fact To File on his chasing debut, while Stay Away Fay and Grey Dawning also bring strong form at the trip. I'm happy to eat my words, but on form Fact To File is up there as one of the worst favourites at this year's festival.

Fact To File: the worst favourite at this year's festival?Credit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

Liam Headd: I'm happy to go against Lossiemouth in the Mares' Hurdle. The fact the five-year-old has yet to race over two and a half miles leaves question marks about whether she can see out the trip, especially if the ground came up soft. Although she won on soft in the Triumph last year, I feel the extra distance could give her problems and there are others in the market I'd fancy. I'm keen on Love Envoi, even though she has a bit to find with Lossiemouth from the Unibet Hurdle. This is her ideal trip, she has strong form at the track including when second in the race last year, and she will relish the conditions.

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I'm really sweet on the chance of Crebilly in the TrustATrader Plate. Is he a good thing off a mark of 140?
Bernie Corless

Joe Eccles: He could be let in lightly off a mark of 140 but his jumping would provide a real cause for concern. Errors have put paid to his chances in two races at Cheltenham already this season and while he got off the mark at Exeter last time, he still didn't convince me that he was a natural over fences. I would much rather be a layer than a player at odds of around 4-1.

Harry Wilson: I'd have to agree with you, Bernie. Crebilly looked as though he was about to beat Ginny's Destiny when falling in a chase on the Old course here in November and although his jumping let him down in the closing stages next time, he was much better in an Exeter novice last month. That looks like strong form given the runner-up filled the same position in the Pendil on his next start, while the third had finished second in a Grade 2 the start before. If he can avoid bad luck on the way round, he should be a major threat.

Liam Headd: Crebilly has improved in his three starts over fences and has a good chance of continuing that form given that he's only gone up 1lb for his Exeter win. My concern is he didn't have to beat much that day, while his jumping at Cheltenham has let him down on his two starts here. My selection for the Plate would be Theatre Man, who finished closer to Ginny's Destiny on Trials day than Crebilly did when clashing with him in December. Theatre Man stayed on strongly at Cheltenham and he could take advantage of a mark of 137.

Does Bravemansgame represent the each-way value in the Gold Cup market?
Alan Warburton

Joe Eccles: I think he was somewhat unfairly labelled a non-stayer after he ran in the Gold Cup last year when – Galopin Des Champs aside – he'd have been a pretty convincing winner. The problem is Galopin Des Champs looks just as good this season and, when you throw the likes of Fastorslow, Shishkin and Gerri Colombe into the mix, this looks like a stronger running of the race. If the ground came right for him it wouldn't surprise me to see him snatch a place, but I think the 16-1 available provides a fairly accurate assessment of his chances.

Harry Wilson: I wouldn't say that Bravemansgame can't place in the Gold Cup, and 16-1 about a horse who finished second in the race last year is definitely a touch big, but he's just looked a bit below last season's level, even if his second in the King George was a step in the right direction, and there's better value in the race. L'Homme Presse is around the same price, but he was just 6-1 for Friday's showpiece before suffering an injury last year and he has shown that he retains all his ability. Yes, he was a bit rusty on his return from that long layoff in the Fleur de Lys Chase, but he was no stronger than at the line to beat Protektorat by more than two lengths. His run at Ascot – which was right-handed on quick enough ground over too short a trip – was just a prep for this and he should be a big player returned to his preferred conditions.

Liam Headd: Based on last year's form and what he's done this season, you'd have to fancy him to go well each-way. He obviously has a bit to find with Galopin Des Champs from 12 months ago, but he handled the trip well last season and just bumped into a superior rival on the day. Who knows, he might have even had a say in the King George last time had Shishkin not fallen and hampered him. Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden have been singing his praises in the lead-up to the festival and he never seems to run a bad race. I think he can go close again.

Hi Punting Club, could I have an each-way Lucky 15 for the festival?
Nathan Briggs

Joe Eccles: I fancy the step up in trip to unlock improvement for Facile Vega in the Turners (1.30, Thursday). Trainer Fergal O'Brien should go at least close to a breakthrough festival win with Dysart Enos in the Mares' Novices' Hurdle (4.50, Thursday) and So Scottish looks very well handicapped and should be well suited to the demands placed upon him in the County Hurdle (2.10, Friday). Later on that card, Willie Mullins' Shanbally Kid looks far too big a price for the Martin Pipe (5.30, Friday).

Harry Wilson: Soft ground will be a big help to Trelawne, who will relish the step up in trip in the Ultima (2.50, Tuesday). He's shown strong form over shorter behind the likes of Ginny’s Destiny, Grey Dawning and Colonel Harry. I think Lucky Place is well handicapped and should go well in the Coral Cup (2.50, Wednesday). Johnnywho is held in high regard, has strong form and will relish the step up to three miles in the Albert Bartlett (2.50, Friday) and I've long thought L'Homme Presse could win a Gold Cup (3.30, Friday). His price is just a bonus this year.

Liam Headd: I'm sweet on the chances of Liari in the Boodles (4.50, Tuesday) as he continues to improve for Paul Nicholls and was so impressive in a Listed contest at Musselburgh last time out. Doddiethegreat ran a cracker behind stablemate Iberico Lord in the Betfair Hurdle and he's one to watch in either the Coral Cup (2.50, Wednesday) or Martin Pipe (5.30, Friday). I think Springwell Boy could be a player in the Pertemps (2.10, Thursday), while Gidleigh Park has every opportunity in either the Gallagher (1.30, Wednesday) or Albert Bartlett (2.50, Friday).

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