'He's been aimed at this and looks overpriced at 16-1' - your Glorious Goodwood and Galway festival questions answered
There's something for all racing fans this week as Glorious Goodwood and the Galway festival take place. Looking ahead to what promises to be an unmissable few days, our resident Punting Club judges Harry Wilson, Joe Eccles and Liam Headd are on hand to discuss the hot topics and their best wagers . . .
Hi Punting Club, do you have any big-priced outsiders for Goodwood or Galway?
Rob Irving
Joe Eccles: Hi Rob, with the ground at Goodwood looking set to dry out as the week goes on, I’m very sweet on the chances of Vino Victrix in Friday’s 2m4½f handicap (1.50). Hughie Morrison’s six-year-old has form figures of 10442 at the track and has slipped to his lowest mark in over two years – there's still some 16-1 available if you shop around. I also expect King’s Gamble to outrun his odds of 20-1 in the card’s following Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes (2.25). He was positioned last of the 29 runners in the Britannia Stakes with two furlongs to run but finished with a wet sail for fifth under a big weight and still holds plenty of upside after just the four starts.
Harry Wilson: I'm hoping Richard Fahey sends Pretty Crystal to Glorious Goodwood, where she is priced up at around 25-1 for the Oak Tree (2.25) on Wednesday. She won the Nell Gwyn on her reappearance, form that has worked out well with the second and third subsequently being placed in Group 1s, and has been tried over two different trips since, finding the 1,000 Guineas too far before things happened too quickly when dropped to 6f at York next time. The return to 7f looks ideal and she could prove her price all wrong. I'd also be tempted to have a little bit on Zealandia in Friday's 2m4½f handicap (1.50). You have to forgive her a poor run last time, but I'm convinced she's an out-and-out stayer and she won on her only visit to the track.
Liam Headd: Ed Walker is operating at a healthy 24 per cent strike-rate in the last fortnight and he will have some live contenders throughout the week. One who I fancy is Crown Of India, who is around 16-1 for the 1m4f handicap (1.50) on Wednesday. The three-year-old has yet to win in four starts, but he has posted three strong efforts when third at Salisbury twice and Doncaster once. He has not been beaten by much in those three outings, while the form from his first start this term has been boosted as the second and fifth have both scored since. He should be suited by the quick ground and he looks one to improve again. I also fancy Tenerife Sunshine to again go well at the track for Charlie Johnston, whose yard loves this meeting. He didn't offer much at Newmarket or Royal Ascot, but the four-year-old won at Goodwood in June and is worth keeping an eye on at 16-1 in the 2m4½f handicap (1.50) on Friday.
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There are a few well-fancied horses at Goodwood who ran poorly last time out such as Kinross, Notable Speech and Inspiral. Which of those would you be most willing to forgive?
Billy Abey
Joe Eccles: Notable Speech. Kinross will appreciate dropping in grade and stepping back up in trip but he still looks short enough for a Lennox Stakes that includes several improvers. It also looks like the last-chance saloon for Inspiral, and the decision to supplement her stablemate Emily Upjohn for the Nassau Stakes rings alarm bells. Notable Speech failed to give his true running at Royal Ascot and would hold obvious claims in Wednesday’s Sussex Stakes if returning to his 2,000 Guineas-winning form.
Harry Wilson: I'm willing to give Kinross another go, as his record of 121 in this race is hard to ignore and he might just have lost a touch of pace in his older years, so 7f looks optimal. Inspiral has just been too bad to be true this season and although she may just be past her best, if she rediscovers any of the form that saw her dispatch subsequent two-time Group 1 winner Mqse De Sevigne in the Sun Chariot or beat Warm Heart over this trip at the Breeders' Cup, she will be a force. I wouldn't be convinced, but 7-1 looks massive.
Liam Headd: I'd also have to agree with Joe and side with Notable Speech. Although his unbeaten record ended at Royal Ascot, I feel you can put a line through that effort as he never really got going and didn't perform anywhere near to his best. He will have a big chance if he shows a performance similar to that. Kinross is dropping in grade, but the Lennox looks competitive and there are others who hold better form. As for Inspiral, she has been disappointing in both starts this season and she'd probably need a career-best effort to overcome the opposition, and I favour Emily Upjohn out of the Gosdens' two runners in the Nassau Stakes.
Could you give me an each-way double for the Galway Plate and Hurdle?
Mark Ericsson
Joe Eccles: Henry de Bromhead’s Toss Again bounced back from a couple of no-shows when fourth in the Mayo National last time and, having won the Blazers Handicap Chase at last year’s Galway festival, is likely to have been aimed at the Plate. He looks overpriced at 16-1. In the Galway Hurdle, I’m prepared to chance another at a big price in 33-1 shot Shecouldbeanything. Gordon Elliott’s mare will appreciate having a strong pace to aim at over this trip and her mark of 137 still looks workable.
Harry Wilson: I don't think we've seen the best of Zanahiyr over fences yet and he could be thrown in off a mark of 145 in the Plate. He finished third behind Constitution Hill in the Aintree Hurdle, recording an RPR of 161, but he has yet to come near that over fences, which I think is down to the fact he has raced mainly on ground described as soft or worse and his best RPRs have come on good to soft. The ground should be perfect for him at Galway and he looks to have a lovely weight. It usually pays to follow Willie Mullins in the Galway Hurdle and the unexposed Anotherway gets my vote. He was a devastating winner on his debut and looked sure to play a part in a Grade 2 next time but for coming down two out when cruising. A fast-run 2m could be right up his street and his opening mark could underestimate him.
Liam Headd: Idas Boy scored at a big price at Kilbeggan last time out and I think he'll run another big race in the Plate for Noel Meade. It took him a couple of runs to get going this season, but he again proved he has the stamina when landing the Mullingar Midlands National by three lengths. A drop back in trip will pose no issues and he should appreciate good ground. In the Hurdle, I'm really keen on the chances of Gorgeous Tom for Henry de Bromhead. The six-year-old has been a consistent performer over these obstacles, winning twice and finishing second on two other occasions, and he still looks to be well treated off a mark of 137. His most recent victory, which yielded a career-best Racing Post Rating, came at the Punchestown festival and the form has been franked with the third winning next time out.
Are there any jockeys we should follow around Goodwood or Galway?
Nathan Briggs
Joe Eccles: Tom Marquand showed his brilliance on Quickthorn in last year’s Goodwood Cup and should get plenty of good rides at the Glorious meeting, while I’ll also be keeping an eye on Danny Tudhope’s mounts. He’s an infrequent visitor to Goodwood but struck with 14-1 Lava Stream on one of only two rides there so far this year and his association with David O’Meara, whose string is in fine fettle, should lead to some solid chances this week.
Harry Wilson: I agree with Joe that Marquand is always worth a look, and I'll add Robert Havlin too. He is operating at a 22 per cent strike-rate at the track in the last five years for a level-stake profit of +15.65, which is remarkable considering he's usually on the less-fancied runner from the Gosdens. No-one has ridden more winners on the Flat at Galway in the last five years than Shane Foley and he's done so in profit, with a +27.37 to a £1 stake, while over jumps it's worth keeping an eye on the rides of Patrick Mullins, who is operating at a 33 per cent strike-rate at the track in the last five years and has +13.03 level-stake profit.
Liam Headd: I also think Robert Havlin is one rider to keep on side. He has a healthy 23 per cent strike-rate at the track this year and he has some big opportunities on the opening day, including Audience in the Lennox Stakes and Sweet William in the Group 1 Goodwood Cup. Chris Hayes registered five winners from 27 rides at Galway in 2023 and he is likely to be involved in the key battles this week. Yaxchilan and This Songisforyou are two of his rides on Tuesday worth following.
Please can you give me a Lucky 15 for Glorious Goodwood?
David Downey
Joe Eccles: Jamie Osborne’s Executive Decision caught the eye when fourth at Epsom on her penultimate run and off a 3lb lower mark looks interesting in Tuesday’s 6f fillies’ handicap (5.55). I’ve already stated my case for both Vino Victrix in the 2m4½f handicap (1.50) and King’s Gamble in the Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes (2.25) on Friday, and I’ll add Nunthorpe winner Live In The Dream in the same day’s King George Qatar Stakes (3.35). Adam West’s sprinter will appreciate getting back on a sound surface.
Harry Wilson: I fancied Take Heart for John Smith's Cup and he did nothing to harm his reputation, staying on from what proved to be too far back. If he can get a more prominent position, he still looks well handicapped in the Chesterfield Cup (1.50) on Tuesday. I've already explained my reasoning for Pretty Crystal in the Oak Tree (2.25) on Wednesday, when the aptly named Goodwood Odyssey can also go well in the opening 1m4f handicap (1.50). He was sent for home a long way out at Newmarket but stuck to his task and saw this new trip out well. He's looked much more at home on right-handed courses and could be a force if ridden a touch more patiently. Zealandia, mentioned earlier, is the last in the 2m4½f handicap (1.50) on Friday.
Liam Headd: The fillies' mile handicap (5.20) is wide open and Moonspirit looks to be a serious player for George Boughey. She's chasing a hat-trick after wins at Beverley and Hamilton, and she should appreciate the quick ground. Her trainer is operating at a 24 per cent strike-rate in the last fortnight, while the booking of William Buick is another bonus. As already mentioned, I think Crown Of India in the 1m4f handicap (1.50) on Wednesday is a big price at 16-1 and there could be some value to be made there. The Kevin Ryan-trained Midnite Storm holds two entries this week, but the 1m2f handicap (1.50) on Thursday is where I fancy him to run. He has improved with every run this season on Racing Post Ratings and he finally got the win he deserved at Redcar last time out. He is another who will relish fast conditions. I'm going to throw in New Image for David O'Meara in the Coral Golden Mile (3.00) on Friday. He's won three of his seven starts this year and his pedigree suggests a step up to a mile will not be an issue.
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