'He made a mockery of his opening mark and can go in again' - your Galway and Goodwood questions answered

The Galway festival, a mixture and Flat and jumping action across seven spectacular days, and Glorious Goodwood, a much-loved summer meeting packed with five days of top-class racing, are nearly here.

Our resident Punting Club judges, Harry Wilson, Joe Eccles and Liam Headd, are on hand to discuss hot topics and festival wagers . . .

Can you see Frankie Dettori winning the Goodwood Cup on Courage Mon Ami and becoming the only jockey to have won the race six times? 

Joe: Having been keen on Coltrane for the Ascot Gold Cup, the memory of a red-capped Frankie Dettori weaving through the field to score aboard Courage Mon Ami remains painful. I do not see a 1lb swing in the weights making a dramatic difference to those placings and at this stage favour the Gold Cup winner, but I will keep a close eye on the weather as soft ground would be an unknown for Courage Mon Ami.

Liam: The John and Thady Gosden-trained gelding produced a career-best effort on Racing Post Ratings when landing the Ascot Gold Cup last month, after showing serious improvement from his Goodwood win. Having won at the track already, he will be extremely tough to beat, but I’m still keen on Coltrane reversing the form after narrowly missing out last time. He ran well in defeat and I think his experience over this two-mile trip will be crucial. He finished fourth last year, but sat behind Kyprios, Stradivarius and Trueshan, and has the ability to strike here.

Courage Mon Ami and Frankie Dettori (right) beat Coltrane to win the Ascot Gold CupCredit: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)

Harry: I was screaming for Frankie Dettori and Courage Mon Ami to pick up Coltrane at Royal Ascot and I was elated as he did after calling the Gold Cup runner-up "one of the worst favourites in the history of the meeting". I don't see any reason that the places would reverse here, especially as Coltrane was outpaced (and possibly outclassed) in this last year as the front three quickened, and given Courage Mon Ami has won all four of his starts, including a 1m6f handicap at Goodwood, he has a big chance of going 5-5. However, I'm still in the Eldar Eldarov camp as he blatantly didn't stay the trip at Ascot, had a horrible run through and probably wanted more juice in the ground, which he is likely to get here. He can reverse Yorkshire Cup form with Giavellotto and announce himself as a stayer to follow.

Can anyone stop Paddington in the Sussex Stakes?

Joe: No. Usually the Sussex gives us the opportunity to see how the leading three-year-olds fare against their elders, but Paddington has already ticked that box with victory in the Coral-Eclipse and dropping back to a mile will not convenience him. Inspiral is not going to be good enough to give him 4lb – particularly given she starts slower than England in an Ashes series.

Paddington: unbeatable in the Sussex Stakes?Credit: Mark Cranham

Liam: In short, no. He is simply the best horse in the race and the best three-year-old in training. Emily Upjohn ran him close in the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown, but Paddington stuck his head down and got the job done, just as he has done in each of his six appearances since his debut defeat at Ascot. Ryan Moore and Aidan O’Brien are the red-hot duo when it comes to racing festivals and, although Paddington will face more solid rivals in Group 1 scorers Inspiral and Modern Games, I expect him to return to the winner's enclosure once more.

Harry: I was gutted to read that Nostrum was likely to head to Friday's Thoroughbred Stakes instead of taking on Paddington in the Sussex, as he is an absolute beast and would have taken all the beating – I couldn't believe he was as big as 5-1. Nostrum will end the year being the best three-year-old miler, and possibly the best in the division full stop. Without him, Paddington's task looks very straightforward. Despite looking to stay every bit of the mile and a quarter in the Coral-Eclipse, I think dropping back to the mile will suit him better, and unless Inspiral returns to her scintillating best it could be a walk in the park.

Hewick returns to the festival in an attempt to win a second successive Galway Plate. How do you assess his chances and who do you think poses the biggest threat to him winning?

Joe: While I would love to see Hewick gain another win at Ballybrit, he only had half a length in hand over Darasso last year (albeit he suffered interference) and is now 12lb higher, so it would be some weight-carrying performance to claim a second running. Ash Tree Meadow was fourth in last year’s race, but that looked a performance worth upgrading as he was forced to check and switch when running into a loose horse turning for home and his jockey lost his whip on the run-in. He is just 1lb higher than last year and prepped for this with an excellent run on the Flat at Roscommon earlier this month.

Hewick: can he defy top weight for successive Galway Plate victories?Credit: Alan Crowhurst

Liam: It would be another tale to the story of Hewick if he was to back up last year’s Galway Plate by winning again. Purchased for €850, the eight-year-old has taken his connections on an unbelievable journey and looked as good as ever when landing the Group 2 bet365 Oaksey Chase at Sandown in April. It’s sure to be a wide-open contest and I think Hewick has every chance of getting his head in front if showing the same form as his penultimate run. However, with it being competitive, there are a few who will be a threat to him and I like the look of Easy Game, who has won his last four by a combined total of just over 97 lengths.

Harry: I can't see a scenario where Hewick isn't involved in the finish. A lot of people think because he's higher in the weights that it will be tougher, and no doubt it will be, but we're talking about a Gold Cup horse taking on inferior rivals in a handicap. He was badly hampered in this last year when giving weight away to all but two rivals and granted a smooth passage he should be involved. All that said, I think Kilcruit will be tough to beat. He made a mockery of an opening handicap mark of 148 at the Punchestown festival and will be better suited to this test than the Grade 1 hurdle he attempted in May. Royal Rendezvous followed a similar path when going down by a length in 2020 (before winning in 2021) for Willie Mullins.

In my eyes, Blue Rose Cen is the best three-year-old filly in Europe and will be difficult to beat in the Nassau on Thursday. What do the panel think? 

Joe: I can’t argue. She seems to be getting better with each start and her Prix de Diane win showed that she does not need to blast off in front to be seen at her best. The only real unknown is how she will handle the journey over to Britain, but in receipt of 8lb from Nashwa I think there is certainly a case to be made for her being odds-on.

Liam: I’m in the Blue Rose Cen camp and I just can’t see her getting beat on Thursday. I am, however, a huge fan of Nashwa and I was blown away by her performance in the Falmouth at Newmarket. Not only did she beat the field, she tore it apart, and will certainly put up a fight to attempt to land another Group 1. Al Husn and Running Lion are tough rivals to face, but Blue Rose Cen’s Prix de Diane win was special and I can still see improvement in her. I can’t see the fact she has only raced in France being a problem and she seems to go on any ground, so she’ll be tough to crack.

Blue Rose Cen remains firmly on course for the Qatar Nassau StakesCredit: Edward Whitaker

Harry: Blue Rose Cen is a real talent and not only showed she stayed further than a mile with her decisive Prix de Diane victory, but that she could do it at the highest level on ground that wasn't bottomless. The Nassau looked the logical next step and in receipt of 8lb from her main rival Nashwa, there's a lot to like with more improvement still to come. One who is being underestimated in the market is Above The Curve, whose success in the Prix Corrida has been well and truly franked. Runner-up Mqse De Sevigne landed the Group 1 Prix Rothschild on Sunday, third-placed India was first past the post in a German Group 3, while Nashwa stormed to another top-level win in the Falmouth. She could upset the principals, especially if getting her own way up front.

Is Bialystok a good each-way bet in the Galway Hurdle?

Joe: Bialystok travelled through his race at Punchestown like a dream but did need a little bit of convincing to get the job done and flashed his tail under pressure, so clearly has his own ideas about the game. I’ll be siding with Party Central, who has a couple of wins on the Flat to her name this year and on more than one piece of hurdle form looks potentially well treated off a mark of 142. She has been campaigned with the Galway Hurdle in mind.

Party Central: Joe thinks her mark looks workableCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

Liam: It’s very difficult to overlook a Willie Mullins horse, especially if they are a double-figure price going into a race. Since being gelded at the start of the year, the five-year-old has improved with every start and looked impressive at Punchestown on his last start. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bialystok shorten based on that form and I’m sure he can continue that consistency on Thursday. There are some other interesting names entered in the race and we’ll have to wait till Tuesday for confirmed runners, but I am keen on Father Of Jazz, who is 3-3 since moving from Dan Skelton to James Owen.

Harry: Willie Mullins skipped Cheltenham with Bialystock when he was obviously well handicapped, which suggested he had mapped a plan. He travelled superbly through the race at Punchestown in April and scored well, but the race fell apart and he was merely picking up the pieces. He's been off since, so this looks like another long-term target and a 9lb rise could underestimate him. The 20-1 looks value for sure. Tony Martin loves a go at this race and Tudor City is back for his fifth attempt. He's won it twice, including last year off this mark, and should not be underestimated, while stablemate Nibiru (is in the 6.40 Monday) looks very well treated on his second to subsequent Grade 1 winner Gaelic Warrior and will run a huge race if getting in off his light weight.

The Stewards’ Cup is one of my favourite races. Who are the horses we should look out for, and who is going there under the radar? 

Joe: Charlie Hills has previous in this race and his Ozario shaped better than the bare result when sixth in the Wokingham last time out. He could easily prove to be a class above in this company, but at more than double his 10-1 price I am keeping an eye on whether Lethal Nymph makes the cut. Clive Cox’s four-year-old has been steadily coming to hand this season and looked potentially above average when scoring by two and a half lengths at Ascot last September.

Liam: In a race that could see up to 28 runners, the Stewards’ Cup is a difficult one to call, but there are a few who I am looking at. Saint Lawrence was a good winner during the royal meeting and Archie Watson has been having a good time of things this season. The Charlie Hills-trained Tanmawwy has won two of his last five, and was unlucky to lose at Newbury, so that has to count for something. Batal Dubai has won half of his six starts, so also brings good form, while veteran and course-and-distance winner Summerghand loves these big handicaps. 

Harry: Having backed him at Royal Ascot and at the Curragh last week, I'm not giving up on Albasheer just yet. He finished like a train at the royal meeting and would've forced a close finish had he followed stablemate Saint Lawrence through the pack, while in Ireland he travelled strongly but made his challenge on the wrong side of the track. I'd prefer if the ground stayed on the quicker side for him, as it could've been the soft ground that added to his downfall last time, too. The 1lb drop can only help matters and on the strength of his old form – split Chindit (dual Group 2 winner) and State Of Rest (four-time Group 1 winner) – this mark should be exploitable.

Could the Punting Club provide an each-way Trixie for both Glorious Goodwood and the Galway festival?

Joe: Goodwood - I’ll side with Novus in the mile fillies’ handicap on Tuesday (5.05), Thunder Moor in the 5f three-year-olds handicap (5.55) on Thursday and Maso Bastie in the 1m3f three-year-olds handicap on Friday (5.20). Galway - Eastern Wind looked value for further than the winning margin at Leopardstown last time and gets my vote in Tuesday's 7f handicap (7.50), Last Ammo looks worth siding with in Wednesday's 2m½f handicap (6.10) and Party Central is a strong fancy for the Galway Hurdle on Thursday (5.05).  

Novus (eight): features in two of our experts' bets for the festivalCredit: John Grossick

Liam: Goodwood - Novus (Coral Fillies' Handicap, Tuesday 5.05), Tritonic (Coral Goodwood Handicap, Friday 1.50) and Batal Dubai (Coral Stewards' Cup, Saturday 3.35). Galway - Saltonstall (COLM QUINN BMW Mile Handicap, Tuesday 6.40), Easy Game (Tote Galway Plate, Wednesday 6.40) and Father Of Jazz (Guinness Galway Hurdle Handicap, Thursday 5.05).

Harry: Goodwood - Lord Riddiford (Coral Handicap, Tuesday 1.40), Orbaan (Coral Golden Mile, Friday 3.00) and Albasheer (Coral Stewards' Cup, Saturday 3.35). Galway - Zinc White (Connacht Hotel (Q.R.) Handicap, Monday 6.40), Mister Wilson (COLM QUINN BMW Mile Handicap, Tuesday 6.40) and Kilcruit (Tote Galway Plate, Wednesday 6.40).

Read these next:

Glorious Goodwood and Galway tips: why this horse can win at either of the two big festivals this week 

What's on this week: It's Glorious as Goodwood returns alongside Galway summer festival  

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