'He loves heavy ground and can outrun odds of 28-1' - your Aintree Grand National festival questions answered

Aintree's famous Grand National festival gets under way on Thursday and our resident Punting Club judges Harry Wilson, Joe Eccles and Liam Headd are on hand to discuss hot topics and their best wagers . . . 

I’m struggling to see past Corach Rambler for the Grand National, how do you rate his chances of going back-to-back?
Alastair Bruce

Joe Eccles: He’s certainly the right favourite on the back of his Gold Cup third but I think odds of 5-1 are short enough given that he’s rated 13lb higher this time around. His Cheltenham run represented a career-best by 9lb on Racing Post Ratings (169), so he’s clearly improved since last year, but I’m expecting the additional weight to take its toll late on. I’m also not convinced that bottomless ground is what he wants. 

Harry Wilson: He’s very easy to make a case for as not only do we know that he stays every bit of this test, but he’s 3lb well-in on official ratings. The one sticking point I have with him is this really testing ground, as the majority of his best form has come on a better surface, including last year’s win. He’s won on heavy in the past, and he landed his second Ultima on soft ground, so it may not be an issue, but it definitely gives me reservations about taking a short enough price about him.

Corach Rambler: can he retain his Grand National crown?Credit: GROSSICK RACING

Liam Headd: My concern is that he’s rated 13lb higher this year and it would take an even better performance than Cheltenham to deliver again on ground that is likely to be extremely testing. He was made favourite after the festival but I believe the value lies elsewhere.

Can you provide me with your 1-2-3-4 for this year’s Grand National?
Will Mackenzie

Joe Eccles: While jumping issues remain a cause for concern, I think I Am Maximus has plenty in his favour and will stay on when plenty of others have cried enough. The RPR of 169 he achieved in the Bobbyjo Chase mirrors Corach Rambler’s Gold Cup figure and he retains scope for improvement over stamina-sapping trips. I fancy stablemate Mr Incredible to fill the runner-up spot after his fine comeback in the Midlands National. Eklat De Rire may be a triple-figure price, but he once beat the 166-rated Conflated off level weights and runs off a mark of 146 here. All four of his career wins have come on ground with heavy in the going description. Noble Yeats looks a little high in the handicap but his recent hurdles form shows his wellbeing and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him run well again.

1. I Am Maximus
   
2. Mr Incredible
3. Eklat De Rire
4. Noble Yeats

I Am Maximus: Joe is keen on his Grand National chancesCredit: Patrick McCann

Harry Wilson: I Am Maximus was far too good for last year's National second Vanillier in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse in February, giving that rival 12lb (it will be 8lb at Aintree) and a 14-length beating. He produced a RPR of 169 that day, which suggests this mark of 159 could still underestimate him back in a handicap, and he showed he stayed a marathon trip well when taking the Irish Grand National last year. The more rain that falls, the more I like the chances of Galia Des Liteaux off her light weight. She will revel in conditions, is a good jumper and will appreciate going left-handed. Mr Incredible was still going well in this last year before his saddle slipped and had a good prep in the Midlands National last time, while 2021 Gold Cup winner Minella Indo has a nice weight for such a classy horse.

1. I Am Maximus
2. Galia Des Liteaux
3. Mr Incredible
4. Minella Indo

Liam Headd: The one I have been keen on for a number of weeks now is Meetingofthewaters, who was an eyecatcher when third in the Ultima at Cheltenham last month. Owned by JP McManus, the seven-year-old has had a progressive season over fences and handles testing conditions. Dan Skelton has enjoyed a memorable spring and I believe Galia Des Liteaux can outrun her long odds. Another outsider I’ve fancied for some time is Gavin Cromwell’s Limerick Lace, who produced a career-best when landing the Mares’ Chase at Cheltenham. Although unproven at this trip, she’s won on soft and heavy ground and has been a consistent performer. The more rain the better for Nassalam and he’s a massive price for a horse who should get the trip.

1. Meetingofthewaters
2. Galia Des Liteaux
3. Limerick Lace
4. Nassalam

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I like to follow horses at Aintree that bypassed Cheltenham. Are there any runners you like with this profile?
Daniel Phillips

Joe Eccles: I’d be against any horse that had a tough race on testing ground at Cheltenham. Gerri Colombe falls into that category and Shishkin would be the obvious horse to capitalise if Gordon Elliott’s runner underperforms in the Bowl. Found A Fifty has shown a tendency to jump out to his right over fences and had a fairly tough race in the Arkle last time. He’s likely to go off favourite for Saturday’s Maghull Novices’ Chase but can be opposed with Libberty Hunter, who will appreciate conditions and has posted progressive RPRs in his four starts over fences.   

Harry Wilson: The one who stands out to me is Impaire Et Passe. I don’t think there was much point in taking on State Man again over two miles, and connections seem unwilling to test his stamina over three miles, so the 2m4f Aintree Hurdle looks the perfect race. He was an imperious winner of the Ballymore at last year’s Cheltenham Festival and was only worn down late on his reappearance in the Hatton’s Grace over a similar trip by subsequent Stayers’ Hurdle hero Teahupoo, who beat Honeysuckle first time out in the previous running of that race. He should be much happier returning to this distance and can show why everyone was so excited about him this season. Any of Sir Gino, Shishkin, Jonbon or Shanagh Bob should have a say for Nicky Henderson too, having skipped Cheltenham due to the yard’s poor form.

Impaire Et Passe: Harry expects the step back up in trip to suitCredit: Patrick McCann

Liam Headd: One that comes to mind is Dysart Enos, who was a late non-runner in the Mares' Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham due to being lame. She was expected to go close and the form could not have worked out any better as she beat Golden Ace by nine lengths in an Aintree bumper last year. She goes for the Top Novices' Hurdle on Friday and I’d expect her to run a big race. Pic D’Orhy, last seen winning the Grade 1 Ascot Chase, also missed Cheltenham, but that was by choice of his connections. He’s back in the Melling Chase on Friday, the race he won last year, and he’s a major player. Stablemate Caldwell Potter has yet to debut for Paul Nicholls since being purchased for €740,000, but he will have leading claims in the Mersey Novices' Hurdle on Saturday.

Can you give me a Lucky 15 for the Aintree races away from the Grand National?
Lee Armitage

Joe Eccles: I’m sweet on the chances of Sans Bruit in the Red Rum Handicap Chase on Thursday. He looked unfortunate not to land a handicap chase at Chepstow ten days ago and similarly positive tactics should see him go close carrying 10st 2lb. The booking of Michael O'Sullivan for the ride on Christian Williams' stable debutante Karuma Grey in Friday’s Alder Hey Handicap Hurdle catches the eye and he comes into the race fresh having last been seen on Boxing Day. The opening 3m½f handicap hurdle on Saturday looks a good opportunity for Black Bamboo, who finished an eyecatching sixth from off the pace in the Coral Cup. Libberty Hunter also looks a solid play against likely favourite Found A Fifty in the Maghull Novices’ Chase.

Harry Wilson: I thought I was in the money turning for home in the Grand Annual with Path D'Oroux travelling menacingly well in third, but he was outstayed up the hill, so I'm hopeful Aintree's less demanding course can help him reverse form with Unexpected Party in the Red Rum Handicap Chase on Thursday, especially on 6lb better terms. I've been waiting for Playful Saint to step up in trip and he looks a massive price for the William Hill Handicap Hurdle on Friday. The ground has come right for him and he still looks feasibly handicapped on his half-length second to Love Envoi four starts back. It's hard to look past last year's winner Bill Baxter in the Topham. He took to the National fences well and is only 1lb higher. Maidenstreetprince looks the pick in Friday's finale, the Alder Hey Handicap Hurdle. He was still challenging Sir Gerhard when falling at the second-last at Cork last time when only getting 10lb (was rated 31lb inferior). That effort produced a RPR of 139, which makes a mark of 126 look very workable, and trainer Charles Byrnes' runners in Britain should be noted.

Liam Headd: Broadway Boy missed Cheltenham and runs in the Mildmay Novices' Chase on Friday. The trip and ground will suit him given all three wins this season have come when there’s been juice underfoot. Kateira is one to watch in the William Hill Handicap Hurdle on Friday. The Dan Skelton-trained mare was second in the Mersey Novices' Hurdle last year and posted a promising effort at Kempton last time out. The classy Caldwell Potter has a big chance in the Mersey Novices' Hurdle on Saturday, while Libberty Hunter goes for the Maghull Novices' Chase on Saturday after delivering his best performance when second in the Grand Annual. He loves testing ground and can outrun his odds.

Hi Punting Club, do you fancy any big-priced outsiders for the Grand National festival?
Nathan Briggs

Joe Eccles: With testing ground a concern for many horses towards the head of the betting for the Randox Foxhunters’ Chase, it might be worth chancing Espoir De Guye. He thrives under such conditions and had last year’s Foxhunters’ winner Famous Clermont behind when scoring at Wincanton earlier this year. Odds of 33-1 look too big. In Thursday's mares’ bumper, Metkayina is worth a second glance on her debut for Noel Williams and the Noel Fehily Racing Syndicate. She won with more in hand than the two-and-a-quarter-length margin suggests at Ludlow last time. Finally, while the bare figures suggest he has an awful lot to find, there could be significant improvement to come from Ballybentragh now that he is upped in trip and he is worth a look at odds of 50-1 in the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle.

Harry Wilson: With last year's Foxhunters' winner Famous Clermont missing from this year's field, the booking of Will Biddick for the Syd Hosie-trained Lieutenant Rocco catches the eye. He finished second in his first hunter chase behind Macklin, trained and ridden by Biddick, jumping superbly and spreading the field but looking weak in the finish having tried to make all. He recorded an RPR of 134 that day and he's 3-5 on heavy ground, so there's every chance he'll outrun odds of 28-1. The other would be Easy Game in the Melling. He's inflicted defeats on Allaho, Melon and Kemboy over fences and got the better of subsequent Betfair Chase winner Gentlemansgame, and Ryanair runner-up Envoi Allen, on his last start in September. He enjoys smaller fields, goes well in the mud and could be severely overpriced at 25-1.

Liam Headd: Cherie D'Am goes for the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle on Friday and is priced at around 25-1. Trained by Dan Skelton, the six-year-old mare has won three of her five starts, including a handicap hurdle at Aintree. She’s unexposed over this trip and all her starts have come on soft ground. I’m surprised that Mac Tottie is available at 100-1 in places for the big one on Saturday. The veteran has won three of his four starts at Aintree, including twice over the National fences, and soft was in the going description each time. If he stays the trip then he could run a cracker.

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