The Post Script: two cracking ante-post bets for the autumn - including an Aidan O'Brien-trained 14-1 shot
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This week's Post Script was written by Raceday Editor Ron Wood.
Ylang Ylang enhances Breeders' Cup claims
There were 26 Group races across Britain, France and Ireland from Thursday through Sunday. It's impossible to cover all of it here, so apologies if you were hoping to read more about the two St Legers or the Flying Five. But there are two horses in particular whose performances I think have been underestimated in the ante-post markets. Let's start with the biggest-priced of them, Ylang Ylang.
I outlined her Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf claims in a previous Post Script and I'm even stronger on her following Saturday's Matron Stakes. She was only fourth in the Leopardstown Group 1 but she got behind off a modest pace again, and she finished well – she was quickest of all through the final furlong.
Maybe she'll go for the Opera on Arc day first, but Aidan O'Brien has had Del Mar in mind for her for a while and she's got bundles of improvement in her still. This was only her second run back from a break – it was just another stepping stone – and she looks like being well suited by the longer trip at the Breeders' Cup.
She can still be backed at 14-1 for the Filly & Mare Turf. O'Brien also has Content, but she's just 5-1. Don't forget Ylang Ylang was seemingly considered the stable's leading filly in the spring. Yes, Content came good in the Yorkshire Oaks, despite pulling hard, but she was favoured by an inside trip at York and the runner-up, You Got To Me, finished last in the St Leger.
There's Opera Singer as well – she was sidelined in the spring – but she couldn't be fancied off her fifth place in Sunday's Vermeille.
Ylang Ylang still has the potential to prove the number one filly at Ballydoyle and she could even end up favourite at Del Mar. Bluestocking heads the market along with Content, but Ralph Beckett's filly has the Arc as her main goal.
A word on Matron winner Porta Fortuna. She quickened best in the penultimate furlong, although she did hang left late on. With a good cruising speed and a turn of foot, it's understandable she's vying for favouritism with Notable Speech for the Breeders' Cup Mile.
Sosie should be clear Arc favourite
The other horse from the last few days who still looks overpriced in ante-post lists is Sosie. I've no idea why there is only about a point between him and Look De Vega at the head of the Arc betting after Sunday's Prix Niel.
Presumably people are clinging to the fact that Look De Vega beat Sosie into third in the French Derby in June, which was quite the effort from the winner seeing as it was just his third start. But that was over just an extended mile and a quarter, it wasn't strongly run for the conditions and the winner was always well positioned from a low stall – the first four were drawn 3-4-1-2. Sosie, more of a stayer, kept on from further back.
Sosie then won the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris – over the Arc course and distance – from subsequent St Leger runner-up Illinois.
Back to Sunday's race. It was just a prep and it turned into a bit of a dash but Look De Vega, over the mile-and-a-half trip, had no finish in him. He was the slowest of all five runners through the final 600 metres. In contrast, Sosie was better the further they went. Look De Vega probably wasn't fully wound up after 105 days off and maybe he'll be better if ridden for speed from off the pace in the Arc. But Andre Fabre, who has trained eight Arc winners, won't have had Sosie at his peak after a 64-day pause.
Sosie is now 3-3 at Longchamp and has outstanding claims for the big one next month. He should be clear favourite.
Staying on the Arc theme, Bluestocking may be a legitimate contender off her win in the Vermeille, another steadily run race yet with a good overall time. But she went into Sunday's contest hard-fit – she's run once a month for the last five months – and others may be more ready to peak in three weeks' time.
Her victory was a pointer to Goliath, who was much better than her in the King George but who isn't allowed to run in the Arc owing to being a gelding.
Irish Champion Stakes not a race to go big on
It's hard to get excited by the form of Saturday's Irish Champion Stakes. For starters, just three lengths covered the first seven finishers, despite sixth-placed Luxembourg having set a solid tempo.
Economics deserves credit for overcoming a wide trip. No doubt Tom Marquand wanted him in the clear, as he's a big horse who takes a bit of winding up, and he just kept going. He'll be better suited by more of a galloping track and, in time, a mile and a half. It's no coincidence his most impressive performance, visually, came at York over an extended mile and a quarter in the Dante. However, the runner-up and third on Saturday weren't seen at their best, and the trip was too short for fourth-placed Los Angeles.
The winner was having just his fifth start on Saturday and has the scope and attitude to keep getting better, but Calandagan could ask more of him if they meet in next month's Champion Stakes at Ascot.
Second-placed Auguste Rodin was also wide, but a little further off the pace. He was hanging left in the closing stages and Ryan Moore seemed quick to pull him up after the line. On paper he has good claims of following up last year's win in the Breeders' Cup Turf, but he's won only one of his last five starts and he can't or won't go away from his rivals in the finish these days.
Shin Emperor was third for Japan and might have won with more room to challenge, although he covered less ground than the first two. He was prepping for the Arc and is a brother to 2020 Longchamp hero Sottsass, but he's probably no star.
Talented two-year-old fillies
There were some good two-year-olds running these past few days, not least among the fillies. Zarigana looked a potential star in France on Thursday, the same day that Desert Flower maintained her unbeaten record in the May Hill at Doncaster. But Sunday's Moyglare at the Curragh is the focus here.
The hot favourite Bedtime Story finished last, but she went off too fast in front, racing keenly, and it turned out she finished lame.
The time of the Moyglare was over a second quicker than the National Stakes later on the card, and the winner Lake Victoria was helped by challenging from last place.
It's worth looking at the run of third-placed Exactly, especially with Bedtime Story in mind. She was a bit keen without cover and displayed an awkward head carriage, looking a bit lairy. But she moved too soon into the pace, going quickest for the fourth and third-last furlongs. She was the only runner to post a sub-11sec furlong, going 10.89sec from three furlongs out to the two pole. Even given that, she was still quicker than runner-up Simmering through the final two furlongs as well.
Exactly evidently has a lot of raw talent, yet she was beaten by Bedtime Story in her two starts prior to the Moyglare.
It's hoped there's nothing seriously wrong with Bedtime Story, as there's still reason to think she's the pick of the bunch. She's out to 10-1 for the 1,000 Guineas now, but that might not prove a bad price if there's a positive bulletin on her wellbeing.
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