Which jockeys have fared best on heavy going?

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When the rain comes down, steadily and persistently, we start looking at which horses have soft-ground form. Very sensible, too, though it's a policy with limitations in Flat racing, where there is often so little form to go on. 

Sometimes a horse scoots in, so you look back at its previous runs and its pedigree to see what clues might have alerted you to this outcome, only to find there are none on which you could have placed any reliance. Or perhaps you put your faith in a runner with impeccable soft-ground credentials, only to see them bomb out completely. 

Racing remains multi-factorial, whatever the weather. Even a horse that hates the mud can win on it if they're much better than the opposition, or if the other runners hate it just as much. 

And I feel mudlovers don't show their preference as reliably as fast-ground types. It's easy enough to ping off quick ground if you're made the right way. Horses built for soft ground still have to find the motivation to face the exhaustion they must know is coming. I think they're at much greater risk of losing their enthusiasm than those who only ever turn out on a dry surface. 

But horses are only half of each partnership. Could it be that some jockeys also thrive when the mud is flying while others don't cope so well? 

It's an idea that comes up from time to time and was raised again by Terry Norman during Goodwood. Norman has done a few different jobs in the great game and his Twitter bio reports he now works as an analyst for Sean Levey and consultant to Martyn and Freddie Meade. On social media last week, he praised Tom Marquand for his ability on soft/heavy and criticised Frankie Dettori's record. 

Anyway, it prompted the Front Runner to ask our friend and colleague Craig Thake to throw some numbers together to give us an idea of who wins in these circumstances. Here's what we've come up with, showing wins, rides and strike-rate for rides when the going was officially heavy from the start of 2018 to Friday morning. 

Oisin Murphy 17/69 25%
Tom Marquand 16/102 16%
Andrea Atzeni 15/60 25%
Kevin Stott 13/61 21%
Silvestre de Sousa 13/68 19%
Franny Norton 13/71 18%
Joe Fanning 11/61 18%
Connor Beasley 11/67 16%
Jason Hart 11/75 15%
Rob Hornby 11/85 13%
Rossa Ryan 11/87 13%
Daniel Tudhope 10/102 10%
Ben Curtis 10/106 9%
Robert Havlin 9/51 18%
Ryan Moore 9/56 16%
Jim Crowley 9/68 13%
James Doyle 9/69 13%
Graham Lee 9/78 12%
Richard Kingscote 9/79 11%
Harry Bentley 8/55 15%
Clifford Lee 8/56 14%
Hollie Doyle 8/85 9%
David Egan 8/93 9%

There's a couple of jockeys who haven't ridden in Britain for some time but Silvestre de Sousa will return in a matter of months, while Harry Bentley will surely be back at some stage. 

If you can't see a particular jockey on that list, it's because they've had fewer than eight wins in that time on ground officially described as heavy. Even over a five-year period, we're not dealing with a huge sample and some jockeys will naturally have had more or better opportunities than others.

When it comes to Dettori, for example, I would guess that he's mostly being legged up on fast horses that don't thrive in the gloup. When he gets a chance on a mudlover - Kinross, for example - I'd be as happy to trust him as anyone else. 

Kinross: took last season's Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes under Frankie DettoriCredit: Alan Crowhurst

Still, this list gives us a sense of some names to look out for. We can reasonably hope that these folk, especially those near the top, have learned the adjustments that must be made to ride a horse efficiently in testing conditions and deliver them to the business end of the race with the best chance they could have had. 

Here are the names you get at the top if you order the list by profitability to a one-point stake on each ride at SP. I've left out those jockeys with fewer than 20 qualifying rides. 

Kieran Shoemark 5/44 +48.33
Jane Elliott 6/23 +36.50
Ray Dawson 3/29 +35.50
Paula Muir 1/21 +30
Andrew Mullen 5/46 +26.10
Barry McHugh 6/32 +20.88
Kevin Stott 13/61 +19.91
Andrea Atzeni 15/60 +17.24
Silvestre de Sousa 13/68 +15.10
Shane Kelly 1/21 +13
Luke Morris 5/45 +9
George Wood 4/23 +8.25
Stevie Donohoe 2/22 +8
Rob Hornby 11/85 +6.69

Small samples are even more of a risk here, with the obvious potential for a single 33-1 winner to make a big difference. Still, it can be said that the heavy-ground rides of these jockeys, taken collectively, have performed above market expectations. 

Stott, Atzeni, De Sousa and Hornby are the ones who appear on both lists. And, of course, Atzeni rode the Stewards' Cup winner in deteriorating conditions on Saturday.

Aberama Gold (Andrea Atzeni) wins the Stewards' CupCredit: Edward Whitaker

Today's cards at Ripon and Windsor are expected to take place on very testing ground and there may be more of the same at Ripon, Ffos Las and Catterick tomorrow. 

At long last, our weather is supposed to cheer up a bit this week. But autumn is mere weeks away and it won't be long before the rain is back, giving these folks more chances to show off their skills.

Atzeni, of course, will soon be off to Hong Kong. We learn something about his value and, almost immediately, he's lost to us. What a game, eh? 

Monday's picks, by Graeme Rodway

The best bet of the day is Bay Breeze, who is one of only four runners declared for the Wilmot-Smith Memorial Handicap (4.30), and he appears to have everything in his favour.

Bay Breeze has earned three of his five victories on ground described as soft and David Allan rode him to all of them, including two over course and distance.

The selection has already won twice this season and is only 2lb higher than for his last success at Thirsk in May. He is back on a mark from which he can win, at a track he loves.

He has been inconsistent since finishing third over course and distance in June, but his last two defeats at Pontefract and Hamilton are excusable, as he has yet to excel at those tracks.

His last three below-par runs have also come in stronger Class 2 races and this represents a drop in grade for Bay Breeze. It will be a surprise if he can’t take full advantage of that.

All three of his rivals come here after undistinguished runs, so Bay Breeze isn’t the only horse who needs to bounce back, and this looks as good an opportunity as he will find for another win.

'This represents a drop in grade' - our expert tipster returns with two selections on Monday 

Three things to look out for on Monday

1. Ryan Moore is back in Ireland, where he already has 41 winners this year, just six away from his best ever tally, and at a frankly incredible strike-rate of 44 per cent. He's at Naas (where he's 5/11 this year) for four rides: The Caribbean, Water Nymph, Peking Opera and Brighter. Water Nymph is having her ninth go at breaking her maiden and makes zero betting appeal to me, while Peking Opera has plenty to do against Vauban in the Ballyroan. But it'll be unusual if Moore comes away empty-handed and Brighter has landed in a winnable race if she's come on for her run 12 days ago. Moore is only five wins behind Colin Keane at the top of the standings in Ireland - is it possible he could make a bid for the title?

Brighter17:10 Naas

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Jky: Ryan Moore Tnr: A P O'Brien

2. Interesting Debutant of the Day is Juri, a three-year-old filly in a 5f novice contest at Ripon. Carrying the colours of Imad Alsagar, she's the only mount at the Yorkshire track for Hollie Doyle, the owner's retained jockey. Roger Varian's filly is a sister to Ajaya, the Gimcrack winner of 2015, so it's a pity she hasn't made it to the track before now. She's an Invincible Spirit half-sister to Extra Elusive, who improved when Doyle was given the mount to land a couple of Group 3s in 2020. 

Juri15:20 Ripon

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Jky: Hollie Doyle Tnr: Roger Varian

3. Gemma Tutty is in the best form of her short career so far, with five winners from her last eight runners. Her only loser from four runners in August was Look Back Smiling, who missed the break at Hamilton last week. Strawman is Tutty's only representative today in a 1m2f handicap at Ripon. He didn't seem to relish a first try on the all-weather nine days ago but went close at Beverley on his previous start at the end of June.

Strawman17:05 Ripon

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Jky: Laura Coughlan (5lb)Tnr: Gemma Tutty

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The Front Runner is our unmissable email newsletter available exclusively to Members' Club Ultimate subscribers. Chris Cook, a four-time Racing Reporter of the Year award winner, provides his take on the day's biggest stories and tips for the upcoming racing every morning from Monday to Friday. Not a Members' Club Ultimate subscriber? Click here to join today and also receive our Ultimate Daily emails plus our full range of fantastic website and newspaper content.