When is it time to give up on a horse you like and is this one as good as I thought?

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Is this horse as good as I thought? There's a difficult question for the wee small hours, when even the most bullish among us can be assailed by self-doubt.

You know what it's like, you've taken a shine to an animal for whatever reason and now you're invested. You don't want to think less of them and you're certainly not rushing to admit that your judgement was faulty.

Fortunately, horseracing is so jammed full of variables, there's always some potential excuse for a modest effort. If we just change this little thing over here, maybe the whole world will snap into focus and turn out to be just like we'd imagined.

By the time you're thinking along those lines, the sadder outcome is by far the more likely, of course. The big question for me is whether we have yet reached that stage with Macduff, who holds an entry in the Glasgow Stakes at Hamilton on Friday.

Macduff has a memorable name, so you may well recall me saying I fancied him on the eve of the Derby. I don't think I went overboard with my enthusiasm, describing him as a "halfway plausible" contender for a modest-looking Derby.

Damning with faint praise, some might call that. But there's something special about saying out loud that you fancy a horse for the Derby. We only get to do it once a year. You can measure out your life in Epsom bets.

The Derby is probably the only race for which I could look back at every result over 40 years and tell you which horse I was on. It used to be true of the Grand National but in the last ten years my approach to that race has become more blunderbuss than laser-targeted and it's hard to remember where all the buckshot went.

You're only allowed one fancy per Derby, I think. Hedge on something else if you must but if you haven't settled on one main selection, are you even trying? Punters who fancy two or three for the Derby get a squiggle from me.

Obviously, if you hit the winner, that's an experience you remember forever. But I don't forget the others. When they turn up in a Class 5 at Catterick, years after the gelding operation, or when they make their hurdling debut, I think: "There's that horse who had me shivering in anticipation when they loaded him in the stalls for the Derby." I stop backing them eventually but I always wish them well.

Macduff (pink hat, centre): finished 13th behind City Of Troy in DerbyCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

I'm still very hopeful that Macduff's career will develop along happier lines. The need for him to settle is, I think, at the heart of the matter.

"He needs to settle better than he did at Sandown," I wrote in that Derby preview. But they all had to wait for Los Angeles to load, didn't they, and in the background you could see Rossa Ryan in the pink and green silks, his body moving about in the stalls in a manner suggestive of an anxious mount beneath him.

Two strides into the race, Euphoric shoulder-barged him. If there was any hope of Macduff settling, that was the end of it. Even so, it was disappointing he didn't find a bit more in the straight.

Then came Royal Ascot, when he was tried in a 14-runner field for the King Edward VII. Again, he raced freely, getting no cover from his outside draw and possibly wound up by first-time cheekpieces.

He pulled his way into second place behind a pacemaker. As it turned out, the back of the field was the right place to be in the first half of the King Edward.

Even so, Macduff would have traded at short odds when he moved smoothly into the lead off the final turn, still on the bridle while others were being pushed along. But it had cost him a lot to get there and the petrol gauge was soon empty again.

What now? I chewed it over yesterday with Barry Mahon at Juddmonte. He agreed that Macduff is better than we have so far seen – but then I didn't really expect him to argue with me on that point.

He reckons stamina may be the issue, in which case Hamilton's 1m3f on Friday might still be a bit far, especially if there was cut in the ground. At least if he steps back to 1m2f, there'll be a stronger pace for Macduff to hopefully settle behind.

I still like him. In the Royal Lodge and the Classic Trial, he had the look of a horse who would grow into something. There's nothing mad about forgiving a couple of defeats in two of the hottest races of the year.

Come on, Macduff. Time for that glorious finale, where you defeat Macbeth and put his head on a spike. Or, failing that, just win something.

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Who am I?

Today's clue:

"It's bad luck to be superstitious, of course, but sometimes you can't help it when you do a dangerous job. Cantering to the start of a hurdle race, I saw my name written on the side of the racecourse ambulance. As predicted by the Fates, we fell and I broke my knee in five places. I remember the St John's Ambulance lad asking: 'Are you all right?' I told him to give me a fag, get his hands under my shoulders and pull me back under the rail before the horses came round again."

It's the start of a new week in our 'Who Am I?' quiz, based around a different racing personality each week. We'll give you a new clue every day, with the answer revealed on Friday.

Think you know who it is? Email frontrunner@racingpost.com to say who. I'll give a mention to everyone who gets it right.

Congratulations to Nelius Lynch, the first person to name dual July Cup hero Ray Cochrane as last week's mystery personality.

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What's on this week: building up to the Irish Oaks at the Curragh and Newbury's Super Sprint 

The Front Runner is our unmissable email newsletter available exclusively to Members' Club Ultimate subscribers. Chris Cook, the reigning Racing Writer of the Year, provides his take on the day's biggest stories and tips for the upcoming racing every morning from Monday to Friday. Not a Members' Club Ultimate subscriber? Click here to join today and also receive our Ultimate Daily emails plus our full range of fantastic website and newspaper content.