The curious case of the King George - what's behind Aidan O'Brien's surprisingly low-key record in the Ascot showpiece?

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Something to puzzle over as we build up to the big race on Saturday: why is Aidan O'Brien's record not more impressive in the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes? Obviously, he can't hope to have a champion every year but we're used to him asserting a long-term dominance over quality middle-distance races.

He's the most successful trainer in the Derby and the Irish Derby, the Eclipse and the Irish Champion and the Tattersalls Gold Cup, among other races. It might not take him long to achieve the same standing in the King George but, for now, he's won it four times - excellent by anyone else's standards but perhaps less than you'd guess for him - and only one of those came within the last 15 years.

He's had Galileo, Dylan Thomas, Duke Of Marmalade and Highland Reel. Since Duke Of Marmalade's victory in 2008, Sir Michael Stoute has won the race three times, John Gosden five times. German-based trainers have won the race twice. Why has O'Brien not been getting in on the act more?

The answer matters because, of course, he trains the favourite for Saturday's race in Auguste Rodin (11-8), as well as other potential runners of significance, like Los Angeles, Luxembourg and Continuous.

If you're planning to back any of them, I'd say you'll want an explanation for O'Brien's recent King George record. Perhaps the right horse just hasn't happened along to Ballydoyle. 

Or perhaps it's not a race that figures near the top of his wish-list each year. It's a hard race to win and quite a stiff test of stamina that may leave your star needing time to recover. Perhaps he'd rather take his classy sorts elsewhere. It's a similar story in the Arc, which he's won twice, whereas he's won the Breeders' Cup Turf seven times.

But he has had King George runners, quite a few with obvious chances in the last decade or so. Let's have a look at the Ballydoyle contenders who came up short:

13-8f Love 2021

People got carried away over Love, who'd won a weak Guineas and a weak Oaks (by a wide margin) in the Covid summer of 2020. Her Yorkshire Oaks had more substance, as she was one of the last to beat Alpinista before the grey went on her stonking unbeaten run, but the three-year-old Alpinista was not yet the finished article.

Love (right): beaten by Adayar in the 2021 King GeorgeCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

On her reappearance, Love had to work hard to beat Audarya and Armory in the Prince of Wales, which ought to have rung alarm bells, but excuses were made. It turned out to be her final success; she just wasn't good enough for the King George or the Juddmonte International, or even the Blandford.

In this King George, Love was trying to give 8lb to Adayar, an impressive specimen who had just won the Derby. There was also Mishriff, who had won two huge pots in the Middle East early that year and had run a fair third in the Eclipse. She just wasn't up to beating them.

9-4f Auguste Rodin 2023

It was the ground, wasn't it? We were told it was drying out and the official going was good to soft but it ended up as the third-slowest King George since Swain in 1997.

Whatever the case, Auguste Rodin just wasn't having it. He dropped himself out before the final turn and trailed home last of ten. Apart from his reappearance, it was his only defeat amid a run of four Group 1 wins last year.

7-2 St Nicholas Abbey 2011 

He was a great moneyspinner, thanks to the Sheema Classic and the Breeders' Cup Turf. In Europe, he loved bossing small-field Coronation Cups. Otherwise, he was a little bit vulnerable.

St Nicholas Abbey and Joseph O'Brien: ran well in difficult circumstances in the 2011 King GeorgeCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

This came early in the riding career of Joseph O'Brien, who sat off a steady pace and was last to ask his mount for everything in the straight. The way the race had panned out, St Nicholas Abbey would have had to be a monster to reel in Nathaniel and Workforce after giving them a start. I'm not saying this was one that got away but he ran well in difficult circumstances.

9-2
Golden Sword 2009
Cape Blanco 2010
Magician 2014
Highland Reel 2017

When is 9-2 the right price? When you can absolutely see the case for a horse, you just don't quite believe it. Highland Reel was a lovely, game horse who, in 2017, was not going to beat Enable.

Magician was having a disappointing year. Golden Sword had seemed well held in the Derby and Irish Derby. 

Cape Blanco could have been a shorter price after winning the Dante and the Irish Derby, but there was a lot of faith in Workforce, who'd just won the Derby by seven lengths. As it turned out, the progressive Harbinger was the one to worry about...

What does it all mean?

These are not horses who should have won a King George but instead flopped inexplicably - with the arguable exception of Auguste Rodin.

It looks like the main issue is that O'Brien has been sending horses who haven't been quite good enough. But we know that Auguste Rodin certainly is good enough, if caught on the right day. Unless the forecast is wrong, he won't have to worry about unhelpful juice in the ground this time. 

Aidan O'Brien: bidding for his fifth King George success on SaturdayCredit: Alan Crowhurst (racingpost.com/photos)

It's so easy to get carried away with an O'Brien serial winner, so we should guard against that. The runner-up was a bit unlucky with the way the race panned out when Auguste Rodin won at Royal Ascot. That race had looked stronger on paper than it did in reality.

Even so, Auguste Rodin is clearly the right favourite for Saturday's race. He might not be totally bombproof but he's well placed to give O'Brien a fifth King George, regardless of the fact that so many stablemates have failed to do so.

Read these next:

What's on this week: top two-year-old talents emerge before Saturday's sizzling King George 

Curragh debut winner with 'plenty of class' according to trainer Aidan O'Brien backed into favourite for 2025 Derby 

Racing Post Members' Club: 50% off your first three months 

The Front Runner is our unmissable email newsletter available exclusively to Members' Club Ultimate subscribers. Chris Cook, the reigning Racing Writer of the Year, provides his take on the day's biggest stories and tips for the upcoming racing every morning from Monday to Friday. Not a Members' Club Ultimate subscriber? Click here to join today and also receive our Ultimate Daily emails plus our full range of fantastic website and newspaper content.