I'm looking forward to a more competitive Cheltenham Festival - but the markets suggest it will be tough for the British again

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After a weekend when it felt like every other race led to odds being quoted for the Cheltenham Festival, what better way to start week two of the core jumps season than with a look at those ante-post markets? And there's good news for fans of the game because we're short of short-priced favourites and the talent is a bit more spread around than it was when we did this a year ago.

Constitution Hill was odds-on for the Champion Hurdle at this stage of the last two seasons and some will feel that he should be again. He's as big as 6-4 because his most recent race was on Boxing Day and he was last sighted trailing some stablemates in a Kempton gallop. 

He's the shortest-priced favourite for the next festival, while we have Teahupoo at 2-1 in the Stayers' and a couple of other jollies are 5-2. Compare that to a couple of years ago when the hottest six festival favourites were: 4-7, 7-4, 2-1, 2-1, 2-1 and 9-4. 

In the good, old days, it was rare to see horses that short on the actual day, never mind four months in advance. Our best races should not be seen as predictable.

I found betting markets on 24 of the 28 festival races, though Unibet were the only firm offering odds for some of the handicaps. I've left out the County Hurdle, which has four co-favourites; let's be honest, it wouldn't surprise you if none of them even made the gig.

Let's have a look at the other 23 favourites, day by day:

Tuesday

Supreme Novices' Hurdle: Salvator Mundi, Romeo Coolio 10-1
Arkle: Ballyburn 5-2
Ultima: Chianti Classico 8-1
Mares' Hurdle: Brighterdaysahead 5-2
Champion Hurdle: Constitution Hill 6-4

Ballyburn is favourite for both the Arkle and the Brown Advisory on the Wednesday; punters love him for the two great novice chases at the festival and he hasn't even jumped a fence in public yet. He's been entered for the Morgiana Hurdle and the Hatton's Grace in the coming weeks, so we can't even be sure he'll make the switch to chasing this season.

Ballyburn: popular in ante-post markets despite uncertainty over route this seasonCredit: Patrick McCann

Brighterdaysahead was second when odds-on for the Dawn Run in March. It's the only defeat of her career so far.

Salvator Mundi cut no ice in the Triumph, while Romeo Coolio was second in the Champion Bumper. Both have won since.

Wednesday

Turners Novices' Hurdle: Jasmin De Vaux 12-1 (previously the Gallagher/Ballymore/Neptune)
Brown Advisory: Ballyburn 6-1
Coral Cup: Hamsiyann, Langer Dan 10-1
Champion Chase: Jonbon 7-2
Grand Annual: JPR One 10-1
Champion Bumper: Kopek Des Bordes 14-1

Jonbon wasn't at his best on Friday but it was only a start to his season and the market is doubtless reassured to see him winning again. The next three in the Champion Chase betting are all with Willie Mullins: Gaelic Warrior, El Fabiolo and Energumene. It's sobering to think El Fabiolo was already even-money at this time last year.

Jasmin De Vaux won the Bumper in March and has yet to be seen over hurdles. At least there's some risk built into his price of 12-1. Last November, Ballyburn was already half those odds.

Thursday

Mares' Novices' Hurdle: Maughreen 4-1
Pertemps Final: The Wallpark 12-1
Ryanair Chase: Gaelic Warrior 6-1
Stayers' Hurdle: Teahupoo 2-1
Plate: Peaky Boy, Theatre Man 8-1
Kim Muir: Perceval Legallois 10-1

That 2-1 about Teahupoo is short enough, considering he was a beaten favourite in the Stayers of 2023, although obviously he was convincing enough when he won it in March. Who's the credible threat, that's what the market can't figure out yet. We might see Teahupoo in the Hatton's Grace a week on Sunday.

Gaelic Warrior hacked up in the Arkle back in March but we know he can go further than two miles, so the Ryanair is a possibility. Next in the betting are Jonbon, El Fabiolo, Il Etait Temps and Grey Dawning. Il Etait Temps seems the most likely to actually show up in the Ryanair, rather than the Champion Chase or the Gold Cup.

Friday

Triumph: Willy De Houelle 6-1
Mares' Chase: Limerick Lace 4-1
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle: Jalon Doudairies, The Yellow Clay 16-1
Gold Cup: Galopin Des Champs 7-2
Hunter Chase: Its On The Line 3-1
Martin Pipe: The Yellow Clay 10-1

Galopin Des Champs was a 2-1 shot for the Gold Cup at this stage a year ago. This time, he's only just favourite, his stablemate Fact To File being just half a point bigger, as well as being favourite for the John Durkan on Sunday.

The Yellow Clay is suddenly an important name to know, following his ten-length success in the Monksfield on Sunday. He's now at the top of the market for two races on the festival's final day.

What this all boils down to is that Mullins's grip on the top of the festival markets is not quite as strong as it was a year ago. Here's the number of favourites by trainer:

Willie Mullins 8.5
Gordon Elliott 5.5
Nicky Henderson 2.5
Gavin Cromwell 2
Kim Bailey 1
Emmet Mullins 1
Joe Tizzard 1
Richard Bandey 0.5
Tony Martin 0.5
Dan Skelton 0.5

Last year, Mullins had more than everyone else put together. This time, he has a relatively restrained third of the total, while Elliott's score is much better than the 2.5 of last November.

Do we see this as a victory for the tweaks to the race programme at the festival? Have they served to make things a bit more competitive? 

I'd say the jury's still out on that one and should not return a verdict until we get at least one year's worth of results. These numbers reflect punter expectation - not necessarily the same thing as reality, as we've learned many times.

Willie Mullins has fewer favourites in the ante-post market for the Cheltenham Festival compared to 12 months agoCredit: Edward Whitaker

When Mullins had 10.5 favourites a year ago, that probably reflected a lack of imagination on the market's part. "Who should we back in this race? Erm... What's Willie got in it?" 

Mullins ended up having what was probably the best season any jumps trainer has ever had, being champion in Britain and Ireland, but even in those favourable circumstances, he didn't get a double-figure number of festival wins.

I fear he'll become more and more dominant in seasons to come, which would be great news for him but would tend to drain some colour from proceedings. Anyway, the market is keeping its cool on the subject and I hope it's right to do so.

Finally, let's see how those favourites are distributed by country:

Ireland 17.5
Great Britain 5.5

Another tough season for the Brits, as you surely expected. Ireland won two-thirds of races at the last festival but, for what it's worth, this indicator suggests it might be more like three-quarters this time.

Who Am I?

Today's clue:

"Talk about unpromising beginnings. I was pulled up in my first point-to-point and yet, one way or another, I showed enough to attract the attention of a three-time champion jockey. Whether it was how I ran before reaching the limits of my fitness at the time, or how I jumped a fence or the athleticism I showed walking round the muddy paddock, I must have showed something ..."

It's the start of a new week in our 'Who Am I?' quiz, based around a different racing personality each week. We'll give you a new clue every day, with the answer revealed on Friday.

Think you know who it is? Email frontrunner@racingpost.com to say who. I'll give a mention to everyone who gets it right.

Kevin Orchard was our winner last week, when he was first to recognise Captain Tim Forster as the trainer who so loved his time as an amateur rider that he once said: "It was a tremendous thrill, falling off at the first."

Three things to look out for today

1. As mentioned in this space before, Jennie Candlish is doing fine work with her handicap hurdlers this term, winning at a 23 per cent rate and returning a healthy net profit to level stakes. That makes Bobbigrey of interest as the four-year-old makes her handicap debut in a Leicester race for novice mares (2.40). The grey showed some promise on the second of her three hurdles starts so far. She missed a Sedgefield race for which she'd been declared, presumably because the ground dried out too much. Candlish also has a very obvious chance with Magical Arthur at Plumpton (3.20), carrying a 7lb penalty for an 11-length romp at Kempton last week. The in-form Lewis Saunders claims 7lb off.

Bobbigrey14:40 Leicester

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Jky: Sean Quinlan Tnr: Jennie Candlish

Magical Arthur15:20 Plumpton

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Jky: Lewis Saunders (7lb)Tnr: Jennie Candlish

2. Anyone who backed Dominic's Fault for his handicap debut at Carlisle last month is probably still in shock that it didn't work out. He was hacking along for much of the last half-mile, looking a size bigger than everything else and several times as classy, but a more aggressively ridden 22-1 shot pinged the last and got first run. Dominic's Fault closed up smartly and failed by inches, with the result that he's up 4lb for the handicap hurdle at the end of Leicester's card (3.40). Surely that still leaves him well treated and Sean Bowen won't be relying on a clean leap at the last this time.

Dominic's Fault15:40 Leicester

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Jky: Sean Bowen Tnr: Olly Murphy

3. George Boughey's two-year-olds are in flying form, with three winners from six runners so far in November, including 9-2 and 6-1 winning debutants. His four runners today include Stage Winner, a son of Zoustar whose three siblings have all won at some point. The colt carries the claret colours of Qatar Racing as he makes his first start in a 6f novice race at Wolverhampton (6.00).

Stage Winner18:00 Wolverhampton (A.W)

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Jky: Billy Loughnane Tnr: George Boughey

Read these next:

Harry Cobden: I'd rather win the new Jockeys' Cup than be champion jockey   

What's on this week: the Betfair Chase, Willie Mullins unleashes some champions and Auguste Rodin's swansong in Japan 

'It's been disastrous, we've lost about nine grand over three days' - bookies count cost of Cheltenham short-priced winners 

The Front Runner is our unmissable email newsletter available exclusively to Members' Club Ultimate subscribers. Chris Cook, the reigning Racing Writer of the Year, provides his take on the day's biggest stories and tips for the upcoming racing every morning from Monday to Friday. Not a Members' Club Ultimate subscriber? Click here to join today and also receive our Ultimate Daily emails plus our full range of fantastic website and newspaper content.