Beware the pacemaker: Audience joins a list of horses who slipped the field in Group 1 races

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Towards the end of the last Flat season, the Front Runner opined as follows: "Perhaps one reason pacemakers are less popular these days is that races are tricky things to control. You can end up winning with the 'wrong' horse..." 

Well, I suppose if you have a searchable database of all your past utterings, you're bound to be able to claim foresight eventually. So here we are on the Monday after a Lockinge in which Team Gosden and Cheveley Park enjoyed an easy success with Audience (22-1), who most of us had imagined was there to set things up for Inspiral (2-1f). 

I'm kicking myself a bit about this race because, like many others, I could see the vulnerabilities of Inspiral and Big Rock but was having trouble identifying a plausible alternative. In the end, I settled for Charyn and lost my money on a strong-finishing second, the traditional fate of all 'win' bets. 

Who's the value bet on ground being toasted by the May sun? Why, the pacemaker, of course. On a dry surface, they don't get so tired. If they don't go mad in the first half-mile, the rest could be in trouble. 

The point of last year's article was to argue there aren't as many pacemakers in top-class Flat races these days. It's just an impression, I'm not proposing to pick through decades of form books, totting them up. But, since that's my belief, I should probably have taken more of an interest in Audience as a rare example of the breed. 

His form figures on a sound surface last year were: 12, the defeat being a narrow one to Kinross. Fortunately, some of you must have figured out that he had a chance, judging by his SP of 22-1. He'd been 50s with most firms on Saturday morning. 

Is there anyone out there shaking their head and saying: "You can't put your money on the pacemaker"? If so, here's a refresher course in the top-class Flat races won by horses who were supposedly there to set it up for someone else: 

The Lockinge

Audience wasn't the first pacemaker to just keep rolling in Newbury's Group 1. Godolphin managed to win it in consecutive years with the 'wrong' horse back in the 90s. 

First, there was Cape Cross. He's pretty famous these days, having sired not one but two horses who won both the Derby and the Arc (Sea The Stars, Golden Horn). 

But in May 1998, he was just some schmo wheeled out by Saeed bin Suroor to do the donkey work for Kahal. "Who on Earth is Kahal?" I hear you cry. Why, he'd won the Theo Fennell at Goodwood the previous year, beating (er) Latalomne. 

Frankie Dettori rode Kahal in the Lockinge and they were pretty fancied at 11-2, while Cape Cross was 20-1. In fairness, Kahal travelled strongly for a long way but perhaps Dettori knew he was sitting on nothing because, when he asked for everything, his mount couldn't even hold onto second. Or third.

Cape Cross: 20-1 winner of the 1998 Lockinge Credit: Edward Whitaker

A year later, the Lockinge was supposed to go to Intikhab, who had put up an amazingly strong performance to win the Queen Anne when last seen (Cape Cross among the defeated). But, for various reasons, he couldn't run to that level this time and so the prize went to Fly To The Stars (9-1), who made all and held off Jim And Tonic.

A Group 2 winner with some excellent handicap form, Fly To The Stars wasn't as surprising a winner as other pacemakers. He was simply reprising the front-running tactics that had won him the Prix du Rond Point. 

The QEII

Is there something about top-class mile races? The QEII has also twice fallen to pacemakers, and at around the same time as Cape Cross and Fly To The Stars. 

Maybe it's a Richard Hills thing, since he judged the pace to a nicety on board both Maroof and Summoner. Or at least, judged it to a nicety if the aim was to maximise his own chance. You might have a different view if you were hoping he'd tee up the prize for, respectively, Mehthaaf or Noverre. 

The Derby

You remember Serpentine (25-1), surely? A Curragh maiden winner the week before the Covid Derby of 2020, he went off in front in the Epsom Classic and never remotely looked like coming back to the pack. It was a standout moment in the riding career of Emmet McNamara. Serpentine continues to race but didn't win another race until an Australian Group 3 in March. 

Serpentine: out in splendid isolation inside the final furlong of the 2020 DerbyCredit: Edward Whitaker

Could it be that the presence of Frankie Dettori is a prerequisite for pacemaker success? He was on Kahal and Noverre, as well as English King, a fancied runner in Serpentine's Derby. 

He'd have been on Inspiral on Saturday if he hadn't decided to base himself in the US. Maybe that's why he made the move, he got fed up losing to alleged pacemakers. In which case, he'll be having a pretty good laugh about the Lockinge. 

The Irish Derby

Sovereign (33-1) is what happens when you get a small field at the Curragh, including a not-very-convincing winner from Epsom. Anthony Van Dyck was just 5-4, there were only a couple of other halfway plausible contenders and they just ignored Sovereign, who'd faded into tenth in the English version.

Unsurprisingly, he couldn't win again, though he was good enough to finish second in a three-runner King George, when one of the others had a stone bruise. 

It was a second highlight in the amazing career of Padraig Beggy, who'd won the Derby on Wings Of Eagles two years earlier. Wings Of Eagles required a fine ride. Was Sovereign also a good ride? 

Again, I think it depends on your view of what he was there to do. Should a pacemaker have enough left in reserve to win if they've done their job properly? We'll have a readers' poll on this one day. 

Anyway, the point is made: pacemakers can win top-class races. There must have been others I've forgotten. Do please remind me by email if you feel so minded.

As punters who like the idea of backing winners at big prices, we should always consider them. Their form will never appear to be good enough but what they really need is the right opportunity. 

That being said, only clairvoyants can have backed Maroof. In a nine-runner field, he was the only one who hadn't previously won a Group 1, and there were fewer Group 1s in those days. He was up against class acts like Barathea and Bigstone. It's been almost 30 years and I still can't believe it happened. 

If you backed him, write in and tell us why. The words "after" and "timing" will not be used.

Read these next:

What's on this week: Britain's richest evening meeting takes centre stage before Irish Guineas weekend 

A Group horse in a handicap, more Johnson Houghton joy and mixed signals for Derby hope - three things we learned this week 

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The Front Runner is our unmissable email newsletter available exclusively to Members' Club Ultimate subscribers. Chris Cook, the reigning Racing Writer of the Year, provides his take on the day's biggest stories and tips for the upcoming racing every morning from Monday to Friday. Not a Members' Club Ultimate subscriber? Click here to join today and also receive our Ultimate Daily emails plus our full range of fantastic website and newspaper content.