A ten-minute Grand National? Learning the lessons from times when the mud flew at Aintree

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It's a fair bet that Saturday's Randox Grand National will make history, one way or another. As ever with this race, there are so many unusual things that might happen, like the first winning mare since 1951 or the first English-trained winner since 2015.

Another possible source of history is the time taken to run the race. The record, set by Mr Frisk in 1990, is eight minutes 47.8 seconds and that looks safe for at least another year, despite the race being significantly shorter than it was then.

What we may see this time is a historically slow running, thanks to the endless rain which has been punishing us since the new year. This could very well be the first National for 23 years to take more than ten minutes.

I wish it were otherwise because races on proper soft ground are less predictable. I've been hoping to see drying conditions in Aintree's forecast for more than a week. Still, no use crying about it. The sacred turf is soggy and likely to remain so.

As I type, the official going description is soft, heavy in places. A TurfTrax map locates the heavy section as running from the Foinavon fence up to the Canal Turn and along the back straight as far as the fence which will be the 12th on the first circuit – almost a quarter of the track.

Apparently, they've had bits of rain every day since Wednesday, amounting to 28mm over the past week. Another 10mm might fall on Monday and Tuesday. Conditions are expected to remain overcast all week, so the sun will have little chance to make a difference.

So it's time to reflect on what the National can be like when conditions are at their most testing. Does it change the type of horse we should be looking for?

2001 Red Marauder

At 11 minutes, this was the slowest Grand National since 1883. Perhaps, if the truth were known, it might have been the slowest ever because I suspect painstaking accuracy was not a hallmark of race-timing in the 19th century. Of course, it was a different race in those days and would quite often include stretches of ploughed land.

After heavy rain, conditions in 2001 were barely raceable and some maintained the race should have been abandoned. Bad luck played a major part, a loose horse causing havoc at the first Canal Turn, taking out a quarter of the field in one go. 

For the last ten fences, it was a two-horse race, though AP McCoy and Ruby Walsh remounted to be third and fourth like the troopers they are.

1998 Earth Summit

This was just nine seconds faster than Red Marauder's year and was plainly held on unusually deep going. Thank goodness we had two horses as well equipped to cope as Earth Summit and Suny Bay, who had the race between them from three out. Suny Bay, who carried 12st and was giving the winner 23lb, deserves to be well remembered for his heroism.

There was no single incident that reduced the field in size. Rather, there was a steady stream of falls and unseats. By the second circuit, quite a few runners felt they had nothing more to give. Only six of 37 starters completed the course.

1994 Miinnehoma

At 10 minutes 18.8 seconds, this was relatively brisk, although it was still a full minute slower than the races won by Minella Times or Corach Rambler. There had been snow on the ground that morning.

The field was reduced by some unlucky incidents, like the loose horse who fell sideways and brought down Young Hustler or the other loose horse who refused sideways and took out Garrison Savannah. Four horses went out of the race at the 13th and there may have been a chain reaction aspect to three of those departures.

Anyway, only six finished. Miinnehoma, who had won the equivalent of the Brown Advisory two years earlier, was clearly a class act. Just So, who chased him home, was running from 22lb out of the weights but relished conditions; his nickname was Just Slow.

Little Polveir clears Becher's Brook on the way to winning the 1989 Grand NationalCredit: Bob Martin

1989 Little Polveir

There had also been snow around in the build-up to this race, run in 10 minutes 6.9 seconds. That time and the official going say it was a heavy-ground National but it doesn't look like it, with none of the slithering accidents to be seen in other years. There were 14 finishers, a lot for heavy going, albeit half of those had no chance from a long way out.

Little Polveir had won the Scottish Grand National two years before, also on heavy ground. He was unusual in winning the National at the fourth attempt. He'd been in front when unseating at the 26th in 1988.

The lesson: take veterans seriously

Could it be that really testing conditions give older runners more of a chance? These four Nationals were won by a ten-year-old, two 11-year-olds and a 12-year-old. 

In Little Polveir's year, the first two home were 12 and the third was 11. But the mix was different in those days; only 12 of the 40 runners were aged in single-figures, whereas they will make up around half the field on Saturday.

Miinnehoma and Just So made it a 1-2 for 11-year-olds. In Earth Summit's year, there were eight runners aged seven or eight, none of whom completed the course. 

I can remember arguing that horses in their teenage years should be excluded from the National. There's no need to push that case now. No one enters them, presumably because they wouldn't be fast enough. It looks like there'll only be a couple of 12-year-olds this time, compared with five in Little Polveir's race, as well as a 13-year-old and a 14-year-old.

We've got used to younger winners, all of them being aged in single-figures since Pineau De Re a decade ago. But testing ground takes away the advantage of speed and brings those old plodders into the argument. Roi Mage and Chambard deserve a second look.

As for weight, the winners of these ten-minute Nationals carried 10st 11lb or less. Suny Bay and The Thinker ran gamely to be placed under big weights but my thinking has always been that testing ground exaggerates the differences in weight carried and makes things even harder for those at the top end of the weights.

The going for Saturday's Grand National is soft, heavy in placesCredit: GROSSICK RACING

We've had a handful of recent winners carrying more than 11st but the going was either good or good to soft on those occasions. It would be too sweeping to just put a line through anything set to carry that much because this year they'll make up almost half the field, but it's something to worry about if you otherwise fancied Nassalam (11st 7lb) or Corach Rambler (11st 5lb), say.

As regards odds, soft ground doesn't necessarily lead to surprise results – partly because punters are well able to identify soft-ground specialists. Earth Summit was 7-1 favourite and good old Samlee was third at 8-1. Miinnehoma was 16-1. Just So ought to have been a huge price on form but punters saw him coming and sent him off at just 20-1.

The big shocks of recent National history, like Mon Mome (100-1), Auroras Encore (66-1) and Noble Yeats (50-1) have all come on much drier surfaces. If we get the expected soft ground, don't spend all your time rootling among the outsiders. 

Mud may not lead to surprise outcomes but it can lead to mayhem. There was a lot of midrace drama in those ten-minute Nationals. So spread your interest over a few horses because any single fancy can easily fall prey to ill fortune. 

The Front Runner has, in the past, spent entire years moaning about what happened in the last Grand National. Please do what you can to avoid a similar fate.

Read these next:

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