Should brilliant Little Big Bear go for the Nunthorpe? Here's what to consider

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Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore with Little Big Bear after winning the Phoenix StakesCredit: Caroline Norris

There was an unexpected target dropped into the list of possible options by his trainer Aidan O’Brien for Little Big Bear in the aftermath of his Phoenix Stakes demolition.

“Listen, I think he has a lot of options and the lads can decide what they want to do,” he told Racing TV’s Gary O’Brien. “They could go to the Morny with him, they could go to the Nunthorpe with him…”

The interviewing O’Brien stopped his namesake at that point, asking whether it was a genuine possibility that Little Big Bear could take on his elders in the 5f Group 1 sprint, sponsored by Coolmore, in a couple of weeks, the surprise in his voice understandable.

“I don't think he's short of pace in any way, and he's strong and he's mature,” the trainer replied.

Bookmakers priced up Little Big Bear at between 4-1 and 8-1 for the Nunthorpe, while they are also offering prices for The Platinum Queen (5-1) and Walbank (25-1) whose connections also intimated they would like to take on the older horses with their juveniles.

Even without the prospect of Little Big Bear running (although it would add some serious spice if he did), it seems this year we will have some two-year-old representatives in the big sprint, which got me wondering how they have fared and what considerations have to be given before launching such an ambitious plan.

First, the figures. Thanks to the Racing Post’s head of data Craig Thake, we are able to look at the performances of two-year-olds in the Nunthorpe since the beginning of the RP database in 1988.

In that time, there have been two juvenile winners of the race - Lyric Fantasy in 1992 and Kingsgate Native in 2007 - from 14 attempts, representing a strike-rate of 14 per cent. Of the other 12, three were placed - Paris House was second in 1991, Radiohead finished third in 2009 and Acapulco was runner-up in 2015. That bolsters the overall win and place percentage of two-year-olds in the race to 36 per cent, which is higher than I thought it might be.

2yos in Nunthorpe 1988-2021

1991: Paris House 2nd (7-1)

1992: Lyric Fantasy 1st (8-11f)

1998: Perugino Bay 12th (100-1), Speedy James 17th (20-1)

2006: Enticing 13th (11-1)

2007: Kingsgate Native 1st (12-1)

2009: Radiohead 3rd (9-2)

2010: Dinkum Diamond 7th (20-1), Stone Of Folca 11th (10-1)

2011: Requinto 13th (5-1)

2015: Acapulco 2nd (13-8f)

2016: Prince Of Lir 13th (33-1), Yalta 19th (12-1)

2021: Chipotle 9th (18-1)

It would not seem a forlorn hope then for those associated with two-year-olds in this year’s Nunthorpe to be having a tilt at the race, but there are additional considerations that need to be had other than the past record of similar horses.

John Best was the last trainer to win the Nunthorpe with a two-year-old when Kingsgate Native broke his maiden to win the race in 2007. As such, there is no better-qualified individual to ask for a view on what decisions need to be made and when.

“It was after the Molecomb that we thought it was a race we could seriously consider,” Best says. “His owner John Mayne was a very good reader of form and he phoned me to say the race didn’t look as strong as it sometimes can and that we were right to go down that route as well.

“I felt he had the right temperament for the race and he had the right size and physical maturity too; he didn’t really look like a two-year-old. He used to work with an older horse named Mine Behind, who would always work to 80 at home, and we knew the way Kingsgate worked with him with the weight for age he’d get at York that we were doing the right thing. Plenty thought I was mad!”

Under Jimmy Quinn, Kingsgate Native, who coincidentally also ran in the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot, which Little Big Bear won in impressive style, defeated Desert Lord and Dandy Man at York, with Best listening in from Florida where he and Dave Nevison, the professional punter, were sourcing yearlings at the Ocala sale.

Kingsgate Native went on to finish second in the Prix de l’Abbaye before winning the Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot the following year. Best uses this as a pointer that while Kingsgate Native was a physically mature horse, he was never considered an out-and-out two-year-old even when he was competing in open Group 1s in his first season on the course. Another consideration for connections.

In contrast, Best admits he got a little carried away when running Stone Of Folca as a juvenile in the 2010 Nunthorpe, in which he finished 11th (fellow two-year-old Dinkum Diamond was seventh).

“With Stone Of Folca, I think I probably got a bit swept up in it all,” Best says. “He was very quick but physically he wasn’t as robust or as mature a horse. I think I probably felt that if I could do it once I could do it again, and he wasn’t quite the right horse to go there.

“They have to have the mental and physical maturity to be able to handle it all, it can’t just be a case of looking at the weight for age and getting over excited.”

He adds: “I’m sure it’ll be won again by a two-year-old and if Little Big Bear went there I’m sure it won’t be because Aidan’s got swept up in it all. I watched the Phoenix Stakes on Saturday and he was very impressive in that.”

Monday's pick

With it refusing to rain, certainly in the south and east anyway, the all-weather is playing a vital role in allowing trainers to run horses who would otherwise be stuck in until the dry weather disappears.

The ability to run on the all-weather should be beneficial for Hexameter in the 1m4f fillies’ handicap (3.30) at Kempton, with the filly’s form and pedigree indicating that she would not want the ground to be too quick when racing on the turf.

In her three starts, Hexameter has made steady progress, looking green and in need of the extra distance as she has gone through her races, so the extra two furlongs should suit her today.

She was given a good ride when narrowly beaten at Windsor last time when jockey David Egan sought to enact her stamina in what had been a slowly run race. These conditions should be more in her favour and I would hope she can be highly competitive.

Three things to look out for today . . .

1. You might consider Kath’s Toyboy to be a winner without a penalty in the 6f apprentice handicap (4.35) at Windsor; his owners Ursa Major Racing certainly do. The four-year-old was first past the post on his most recent outing at Lingfield but was demoted to second by the stewards having carried the second home across the course in the closing stages. “We just feel really hard done by,” Ursa Major spokesman Andrew Morris told The Front Runner last week. An appeal against the demotion is pending, but in the meantime Kath’s Toyboy has the chance to gain that so-far elusive second win.

2. Newmarket trainer Kevin Philippart de Foy is enjoying the best season of his short career in 2022, helped in no small part by the significant patronage from Kuwaiti owner Sheikh Abdullah Almalek Alsabah. Nashur, who started the season with Kevin Ryan, is the latest horse to be transferred to Philippart de Foy, who has also taken charge of the likes of Juan De Montalban and Cadillac for the owner. Nashur, a daughter of star first season sire Havana Grey, has been placed in both starts to date and contests the 6f novice stakes (5.35) at Windsor.

3. It is a big day for a few of racing’s lesser lights as Heerose Girl (2.15 Wolverhampton) lines up in a claiming stakes, while Darke Horse (4.35 Windsor) and Madam Pickle (6.05 Windsor) make their handicap debuts. With an official rating of 29, Heerose Girl is the highest achiever of the three so far, with Madam Pickle rated 24 and Darke Horse just 19. In such cases, you can only wish the connections well as they attempt to get their horses’ careers moving in the right direction. As a quick aside, whenever I see horses with such low ratings it does remind me of one of my favourite horses, Deer Park Lord, who had an official rating of one. I still don’t know how that was even possible.

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The Front Runner is our latest email newsletter available exclusively to Members' Club Ultimate subscribers. Chris Cook, a four-time Racing Reporter of the Year award winner, provides his take on the day's biggest stories and tips for the upcoming racing every morning from Monday to Friday