'We expect this to suit him very well' - can Scarface get back to winning ways in handicap chase?

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Heltenham looked the right candidate for this race when the entries were made: he’s won the last two runnings, was likely to step forward for his first run after a break last month and had dropped to his last winning mark.

However, Dan Skelton threw a spanner in the works by not declaring him for this contest, and now the race has a more open feel to it.

Skelton is still doubly represented with Real Stone, who was a comfortable winner at Wetherby two starts ago but ideally wants softer ground to be at his best, and Riskintheground, who is seemingly the choice of brother Harry.

Riskintheground was prolific in the early season last year, winning four of his five chase starts between May and September, with his defeat coming when fifth in the Summer Plate at Market Rasen.

He has proved disappointing since, but he has dropped to a rating just 1lb above his last winning mark and will enjoy the ground. He will play a huge part if he turns things around.

The market has often been a good guide to this race, with favourites in the last ten years producing a record of 261212211 (no race in 2020) and no winner in that timeframe starting bigger than 9-1.

Favouritism looks likely to be held by Bob Bob Ricard or Saint Segal, who are at opposite ends of the weights.

Bob Bob Ricard has yet to contest a race as good as this and will need to find a jolt of improvement, but the class-dropping Saint Segal is much more solid.

He has been revitalised by the switch to front-running tactics, bolting up by 11 lengths over course and distance in December and running big races in defeat the last twice, latterly when third here in the Greatwood Gold Cup.

This is a much weaker race than last time and he could prove hard to pass off an unchanged mark.

There are a whole host of well-handicapped runners in opposition, most notably last year’s Cheltenham Festival Plate favourite Theatre Man, who is 5lb lower than he was then, having disappointed since. Recent wind surgery could see him bounce back, though, and he should not be ruled out.
Analysis by Harry Wilson

What they say

Jane Williams, trainer of Saint Segal
He’s a bit difficult to predict but he should give a good account as long as this race doesn’t come too soon after his last run at the track. He likes Newbury and hopefully should go well.

Harry Derham, trainer of Imagine
He’s been bitterly disappointing and we're fitting him with cheekpieces for the first time more in hope than expectation.

Richard Bandey, trainer of Theatre Man
He’s had a wind op since his last run, which hopefully will help him regain his old form as he’s been disappointing since Cheltenham last year. It’s a competitive race and this is very much a building block for him.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Real Stone and Riskintheground
Riskintheground is coming into his time of year. He did really well last year on good ground and, although the handicapper has him high enough, he should still run well. Real Stone should run his race, although he also could be a little high in the handicap having won the time before last.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Bhaloo
Two and a half miles on good ground and back in a handicap should suit and he won off this mark at Ascot earlier in the season.

Joe Tizzard, trainer of Scarface
He made a bad mistake last time, which cost him his chance, but we expect two and a half miles around here to suit him very well.

AJ O'Neill, joint-trainer of Bob Bob Ricard
He probably made hard work of Doncaster, where he made a couple of mistakes, but it was great to see him win after a bit of a break. Hopefully he can progress and the better ground will be more to his liking.
Reporting by David Milnes

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