Race of the Cheltenham Festival? Assessing the top Supreme contenders

The Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle (1.30 Cheltenham, March 15) will kick off the 2022 Cheltenham Festival with a bang and, if all the main protagonists make it there safely, it is shaping up to be one of the races of the week. Here we go through the form of six of the leading contenders and see how they compare exactly six weeks before the tapes go up.

Constitution Hill

Form (under rules): 11

Strengths: Earned his place at the head of the market with two monstrous performances at Sandown, the second of which came in the Grade 1 Tolworth.

Has an electric turn of foot that has seen him put his races to bed within a matter of strides and appears ground-versatile having won on good to soft in December and on heavy last month. The way he finished his races up Sandown's incline has to rank as a major plus for tackling the famous Cheltenham hill.

Constitution Hill: has looked every inch a superstar in two starts at Sandown this seasonCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

Even the form of his only defeat – in an Irish point-to-point in April – isn't working out too shabbily with the winner Anyharminasking currently breezing through the British handicap scene.

Weaknesses: Is slightly less experienced than his main rivals having started only twice under rules and both runs have been at right-handed Sandown, meaning Cheltenham will be his first attempt going left-handed.

The Tolworth hasn't been a rich provider of Supreme candidates recently, with the last two winners Metier and Fiddlerontheroof both well beaten when attempting to follow up at Cheltenham, although Summerville Boy struck in both races in 2018.

Odds: 2-1

What they say:Nicky Henderson, trainer (after winning the Grade 1 Tolworth at Sandown, January 8)

"Nico [de Boinville] said he couldn't believe how far clear he was without even having to give the horse a click. You just hope it wasn't a flash in the pan. You have to say he's a very good horse, but how good he is I just don't know – he's just seriously good."

Dysart Dynamo

Form (under rules): 1-111

Strengths: For a start he's trained by Willie Mullins, who has taken five of the last nine Supremes and a record seven in total.

The six-year-old has won both starts over hurdles by 19 lengths and looked thoroughly impressive, travelling powerfully and jumping well on both occasions.

Dysart Dynamo: remains unbeaten having won two bumpers and both starts over hurdlesCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

The Grade 2 Moscow Flyer has been a rich indicator of festival success in the past – particularly for Mullins – and his domination of that event last month bodes well.

Weaknesses: Like Constitution Hill, all of his victories have come going right-handed, although he did handle the undulations of Punchestown well.

Both of his hurdles wins have come when making all and it would be interesting to see how he would react if taken on from the outset. He is yet to tackle ground worse than soft, although that looks unlikely to be an issue at this year's festival.

Odds: 3-1

What they say:Paul Townend, rider (after winning the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer at Punchestown, January 16)

"He'd gallop through a wall for you if you asked him. He was very good. We went a proper gallop and he jumped brilliantly. It was an impressive performance. I let him use his stride as he covers a lot of ground. His stride is so big and he does it all at ease. He's very exciting."

Jonbon

Form (under rules): 1-111

Strengths: Had a mighty task on his hands to live up to his £570,000 price tag but has gone about things perfectly, being unbeaten in four starts and jumping fluently.

Jonbon: a brother to eight-time Grade 1 winner DouvanCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Victory at Haydock last time wasn't overly impressive on the eye but he was giving 5lb to some decent rivals and quickened away nicely after the last.

Has proved himself to be tactically versatile, having adapted well to far from ideal circumstances in his first two hurdles wins when he had to come off a slow pace after farcical starts where no horse wanted to make the running. A strong pace to aim at may suit better.

Has won on good to soft and soft ground and when going left-handed.

Weaknesses: Hasn't yet showcased the blinding turn of foot of Constitution Hill and was less than five lengths clear of Might I at Haydock, whereas his stablemate beat the same rival by 14 lengths (albeit with a big turnaround at the weights) at Sandown.

Form of his Kennel Gate victory is difficult to gauge with none of the four he beat that day having raced again since and he has shown a tendency to get warm and overrace, although he settled much better at Haydock last time.

Odds: 4-1

What they say: Aidan Coleman, rider (after winning the Grade 2 Rossington Main at Haydock, January 22)

"He's so straightforward and we can stop talking about him being precocious because he's not. He's a lovely ride and has beaten a good field. In his last two races, he tipped away in front and had it easy but today was a much more end-to-end gallop and we really quickened turning in."

Sir Gerhard

Form (under rules): 111-31

Strengths: Boasts winning course form having landed the Champion Bumper last year and made a smooth debut over hurdles when scoring at Leopardstown over Christmas, but a true test of his credentials is set to come at the Dublin Racing Festival.

Sir Gerhard: successful in the Champion Bumper at last year's Cheltenham FestivalCredit: Edward Whitaker

His pointing history suggests he will have no stamina issues and the way he quickened round the bend in last year's Champion Bumper showed he is not short on pace either. Has won on ground varying from good to soft, to soft to heavy.

Weaknesses: Unlike the trio above, Sir Gerhard has shown fallibility when beaten by Kilcruit at Punchestown last April. That form does not look as strong as it might given Kilcruit's early struggles over hurdles and only one Champion Bumper winner since 1992 has followed up in the Supreme (Champagne Fever in 2012 and 2013).

A weakness in terms of his Supreme chance could be his stamina – could Willie Mullins look to split him and Dysart Dynamo up? Sir Gerhard is currently the ante-post favourite for the Ballymore and it wouldn't be a major shock if he were to be diverted.

Odds: 6-1

What they say:Willie Mullins, trainer (after winning at Leopardstown, December 26)

"He's a very good jumper and I'm happy to see him coming out and doing that. I'd like to climb the ladder if I could but he might just have to go in a Graded race next – maybe the Dublin Racing Festival or something like that. I think he's up to it."

Mighty Potter

Form (under rules): 1-131

Strengths: Proved his credentials with Grade 1 success at Leopardstown over Christmas when overcoming a difficult passage. Close third on good ground in the Royal Bond but has won on yielding to soft and soft, so ground shouldn't be a concern.

Mighty Potter: a Grade 1 winner at Leopardstown over ChristmasCredit: Caroline Norris (racingpost.com/photos)

Looks set to be Gordon Elliot's main Supreme hope with fellow Caldwell Construction-owned stablemates Pied Piper and Fil Dor bound for the Triumph. Has big reserves of stamina and is sure to be finishing strongly.

Weaknesses: Bar an easy Down Royal win on his hurdling debut, he has not travelled as impressively as some of the other candidates and will need to improve his jumping, which has been scrappy at times.

Seen by connections as more of a staying chase prospect for the future and may not be blessed with the same turn of foot as Constitution Hill or Dysart Dynamo.

Odds: 14-1

What they say:Jack Kennedy, rider (after winning the Grade 1 Future Champions at Leopardstown, December 27)

"Everything went wrong for him but he still got the job done. He didn't jump great, so there should be loads of improvement in him. He's very good over two miles and could even go further. He's a massive horse and it probably takes him a bit longer to pick things up, but he's going the right way and hopefully there should be loads more to come."

Kilcruit

Form (under rules): 2/112-1231

Strengths: Comfortably the most experienced contender, having won three of five bumpers – including a Grade 1 at last year's Punchestown festival – before moving on to hurdles.

Kilcruit: recorded an overdue first hurdles victory at Punchestown on MondayCredit: Caroline Norris (racingpost.com/photos)

A strong traveller with a good engine and plenty of stamina, Kilcruit has experience at Cheltenham and on different ground types, and catapulted himself back into Supreme contention with an easy win in a Punchestown maiden on Monday.

Weaknesses: That victory at Punchestown came only after he had been beaten twice at very short odds on his first two attempts over hurdles, putting a severe dent in his reputation.

The two horses to beat him are potentially smart, but the quality of the rivals he dismissed easily in his maiden looks ropey and he was outpaced by stablemate Sir Gerhard in last year's Champion Bumper, although he did exact revenge a month later

Odds: 14-1

What they say:Willie Mullins, trainer (after winning at Punchestown, January 31)

"We set out to do what we did and I don't know if we learned much bar that he gallops. He had nothing against him to make him jump any better. I don't know if we'll run him again before Cheltenham and I imagine he'll go to the Supreme. I think the tongue-tie was a real addition; there wasn't a blow out of him after the race."

Verdict

Dysart Dynamo

Bar Shishkin v Energumene in the Champion Chase, the Supreme could be the race of the festival.

Four-year-old Pied Piper was a market springer with a blistering Grade 2 success on Saturday before forgotten horse Kilcruit entered the conversation on Monday.

Out of all the exceptional novices we've seen this season, I've been most impressed with Dysart Dynamo and would just about side with him over Constitution Hill.

However, the pair have stablemates at similar prices for the Supreme and could run in the Ballymore. Sitting tight feels like the best course of action at this juncture.
Robbie Wilders, tipster

Read more on the 2022 Cheltenham Festival:

'He could be very well handicapped' – Cheltenham clues from the weekend

2022 Cheltenham Festival guide: when is it and what are the big races?

The Front Runner is our latest email newsletter available exclusively to Members' Club Ultimate subscribers. Chris Cook, a four-time Racing Reporter of the Year award winner, provides his take on the day's biggest stories and tips for the upcoming racing every morning from Monday to Friday