Prominent pro punter blasts BHA over controversial ban on Irish horses

A prominent professional punter has hit out at the BHA's suggestion that Irish-trained runners "significantly outperform" domestic horses in low-grade races, arguing that recent data implies overseas runners are in fact unfairly treated when competing in Britain.

Irish trainers have voiced their frustration at being barred from running in Class 5 and 6 handicaps/classified stakes on the Flat and Class 5 handicaps over jumps since the beginning of the pandemic, with the BHA originally bringing in the ban as a Covid-related precaution.

However, it has indicated it has no intention of lifting the regulation and has argued that "overseas-trained runners consistently performed above statistical expectations when they were permitted to run" in low-grade races.

Professional punter Declan Meagher has criticised the BHA's methodology for determining that Irish representatives have a substantial advantage, describing the approach as "disingenuous".

Meagher backed up his argument with impact value (IV) statistics, with 1.00 meaning that horses have won no more or no less than their fair share of the races, and a figure above 1.00 meaning they were exceeding expectations.

Meagher explained: "From the start of 2018 until the Covid shutdown, horses having their last start in Ireland had a win impact value of just 1.17 in UK Class 5, 6 and 7 Flat handicaps and a place IV of only 1.07.

Gordon Elliott: among those to criticise BHA's rule on overseas runners in low-grade racesCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

"Horses [in Britain] who were placed in the first four on their last start, which would indicate an in-form horse, have a win IV of 1.47 and place IV of 1.33.

"The Irish trainer thinking their horse was spot on would be the minimum requirement to send one over for such pathetic prize-money, yet they don't even match the 1.47 or 1.33 levels.

"From samples of over 200 runners each in Class 5, 6 and 7 handicaps over last four years, 62 British trainers have a win IV of greater than the 1.17 Irish runners achieved. Four of them have IVs over 2.0."

Meagher added: "Quotes claiming Irish runners have a win rate far greater than you'd expect are plainly wrong. Indeed, all they show is how unfairly treated they were. Those numbers related to the Flat horses, but I've looked at the jumps before and they're roughly the same."

The BHA was asked to respond to Meagher's statistical claims on Tuesday but did not wish to comment, instead pointing to data that showed generally higher IVs spanning back to 2012.

Meagher believes relying on data that incorporates results from a decade ago is unsatisfactory. "They're comparing apples with oranges and are being disingenuous in quoting stats from 2012," he said.

"I'd assume they're going back then because from 2012 to 2014 or 2015 there was probably a period where Irish-trained runners were winning too much. Since then the British handicappers have been hammering them, much as they have done at Cheltenham. That's why the numbers would have dropped since then."

Meagher added: "Even when it comes to Irish horses placing in these low-grade handicaps, they're barely outperforming ordinary British-trained horses. For the type of horse they're sending over, they should be winning more often.

"If having an impact value above one means there is unfair treatment, then by that logic every top trainer should be banned from handicaps because they virtually all have an impact value of much higher than one."

Sign up to receive On The Nose, our essential daily newsletter, from the Racing Post. Your unmissable morning feed, direct to your email inbox every morning.