'You'll see a better mare here' - can Luccia bounce back in the Top Novices' Hurdle?

British-trained horses were mostly humbled by their Irish counterparts in the Cheltenham novice hurdles last month and the biggest whitewash of any race came in the Supreme, with the first eight home representing the away team. Ireland were streets ahead and those numbers are a precarious sign for Britain in Aintree’s equivalent.

However, a group containing Found A Fifty, Inthepocket and No Looking Back is hardly impenetrable in a wide-open contest. Nicky Henderson is among the few trainers who regularly stands toe-to-toe with the might of Ireland and there are reasons to expect more from his highly rated mare Luccia, who featured among just four British-trained novices in the 20 that filled the first five positions across the Supreme, Ballymore, Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle and Albert Bartlett at the festival.

Luccia is a fast two-miler who is sired by Sussex Stakes winner The Gurkha and the writing was on the wall for her some way out in the Mares’ Novices’, in which she unsurprisingly proved unsuited by a soft-ground slog, fading into fourth.

In her favour is a 12lb swing in the weights, from carrying a 5lb penalty against rivals from her own sex at Cheltenham to receiving 7lb from the geldings at Aintree. So is a sharper track and one-furlong shorter trip, although the Top Novices’ could easily turn into another war of attrition given the uncertain weather forecasts and array of pace-setters in the field. The list of seven includes Altobelli, Found A Fifty, Hullnback, Matata, Rare Edition and Rubaud.

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The Supreme form is tested by Irish raider Inthepocket (fourth), Strong Leader (ninth), Tahmuras (tenth) and Rare Edition (pulled up). Inthepocket disputes early favouritism with Luccia and is a demonstrably strong stayer at two miles, while Gordon Elliott’s tricky-to-assess six-year-old Found A Fifty is the other who could feasibly head the market.

Found A Fifty’s last-time-out second in a Grade 2 at Naas to Corbetts Cross is a standard-setting performance on Racing Post Ratings, but he was beaten fair and square by a three-miler over a trip shy of two miles. That hardly screams Grade 1-winning two-miler.

It is impossible to be completely dogmatic going into this and five-year-old Altobelli falls into the ‘could-be-anything’ bracket for Harry Fry. To a lesser extent so does Hullnback, whose defeat of Grade 2 winner Nemean Lion at Haydock in November reads well.

The final mention goes to the least fancied of the Irish novices, No Looking Back. Trainer Oliver McKiernan is a rare visitor to Aintree nowadays, but saddled the 50-1 winner of the Bowl in 2012 and is in exceptional form with three winners from his last five runners. The haul includes strikes at 16-1 and 18-1.

No Looking Back thwarted Cheltenham Festival winner Brazil on just his second hurdles start in a Limerick Grade 2 over Christmas and fared best on RPRs by 7lb when chasing home dual Grade 1-placed novice Irish Point at Naas in March as a stepping stone to this.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders

Henderson confident of big run from Luccia

Luccia was one of the biggest disappointments of the Cheltenham Festival but Nicky Henderson is expecting a much better showing as she takes on the boys.

The five-year-old was sent off 6-4 favourite for the Mares' Novices' Hurdle following two emphatic wins at Newbury and Exeter, but she could finish only fourth behind You Wear It Well. However, Henderson is expecting better in a race he has won four times in the last ten years.

The trainer said: "She's in good form and I'm very happy with her. I felt the race at Cheltenham didn't go her way but I think you'll see a better mare here."

Altobelli is the only unbeaten runner in the line-up. He looks an exciting type for Harry Fry, having eased home under a penalty at Carlisle in February.

Fry said: "Everything he's shown us so far makes us think it's worth taking our chance. He took a big step forward from his first run over hurdles and we're looking forward to the challenge. I think a strongly run two miles would suit him well."

What they say

Gordon Elliott, trainer of Found A Fifty
He was just touched off at Naas. This is a step up in class again but he's improved since. I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do in a race like this.

Gary Moore, trainer of Hansard
I was disappointed with him at Kempton as I thought he was a certainty. This is a tougher race but he's had a good break since and seems fresh and well at home. I'd be hopeful of a good run. I've always rated him.

Fergal O'Brien, trainer of Hullnback
He hasn’t had much racing but his form is rock solid. Aintree was always the plan and we go there with a lot of hope he will do us proud.

Henry de Bromhead, trainer of Inthepocket
I thought he ran really well in the Supreme. He was just touched off for third and we were delighted with him. He seems to be in very good form and I'm hoping for a big run.

Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Matata
He won nicely last time but this is an enormous step up in class, so we'll see what we've got. Everything should suit him well.

Charlie Longsdon, trainer of Rare Edition
He disappointed at Cheltenham but I think he blew his lid in the paddock so he'll wear a red hood to the start. Hopefully we'll see more of what we saw from him over Christmas.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Rubaud and Tahmuras
Rubaud wouldn't want any more rain. If it stays good to soft it would be perfect but he's stepping up in class. Tahmuras has got to leave an ordinary run behind him but I'm not convinced he was mad about Cheltenham.
Reporting by James Stevens

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