Willie Mullins and Rich Ricci are back in town as confidence carries Vauban into another crack at the Melbourne Cup
There has long been debate about who first declared the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. There can, however, be unanimous agreement Willie Mullins is anything but insane.
Twelve months on from experiencing his latest dose of Lexus Melbourne Cup disappointment, the world's number-one jumps trainer is back in town with the same two horses who withered under a scorching sun 12 months ago.
Also the same is the theme of the article that aims to whet the appetite for Australia's most iconic sporting event. This year, as last year, the confidence behind Mullins' number-one hope Vauban is infectious. Insanity, it must be said, is not uncommon among journalists.
"Vauban just wins, doesn't he," said respected Melbourne radio broadcaster Andrew Bensley as he hoovered up interviews after a Saturday barrier draw in which William Buick's mount landed a favourable stall-11 berth.
Well positioned in gate seven is County Hurdle-winning stablemate Absurde. It's true they also appeared to have decent draws when both were well beaten in 2023 – Absurde was seventh and Vauban 14th as 9-2 favourite – but this time Mullins has ensured the same things have not been done over and over again.
Both horses arrived in Melbourne later, with Vauban having been much more active than last season during a European campaign in which he signed off with an excellent Irish St Leger second to Kyprios.
Also different will be the weather, with the Cup set to be run in the mid-20Cs, warm – certainly compared with the temperature Galopin Des Champs will be experiencing back home – but nowhere near as hot as last year, when Vauban competed at Flemington unclipped. This time he has had a haircut.
Despite what you might have heard about the locals not warming to the internationals, victory for Vauban or Absurde, but particularly Vauban, would be extremely well received.
Mullins first attended the Melbourne Cup as a racegoer in 1993 and pocketed plenty of dollars by backing Vintage Crop. He has subsequently seen his challengers finish second, third and fourth. Lifting the Cup has become his greatest racing ambition, so much so he last month made a flying one-day visit to check on his two runners. They like him here. As he spoke to the media after the barrier draw, so did the Victorian flies.
"Hopefully, we'll be going so fast on Tuesday that we won't catch any," said Mullins, who has no complaints about Vauban being made topweight. "I think he's well handicapped," he added. "Looking at his European form, I think he is still well in."
Similarly upbeat is part-owner Rich Ricci, who, for the second consecutive year, has stumped up roughly £150,000 in the hope of finally winning a race in which his Max Dynamite took silver and bronze.
"I think we have done things the right way this year," said Ricci. "We couldn't be better prepared and I think his run in the Irish St Leger was extraordinary. If he can repeat that, we'll hopefully go very close."
It is safe to say Aidan O'Brien believed Jan Brueghel would do more than go close, yet the stewards scratched the St Leger winner on the same day runaway Cox Plate heroine Via Sistina was withdrawn by connections.
Their defections have accentuated the feeling this looks an unusually winnable Cup. Two of those trying to win it are British challengers Sea King and Onesmoothoperator, sixth and seventh in the Ebor and more recently runaway winners at Bendigo and Geelong.
"Every day I've been hoping nothing goes wrong," said Onesmoothoperator's trainer Brian Ellison on Thursday. The following day something did go wrong, with the Northumberland Plate winner sustaining a cut that thankfully proved only superficial.
"The Plate and the Cup were always the two races I most wanted to win – and winning the Cup might just top winning the Plate," said Ellison. "If I ever am going to win the Cup, this could be the horse. Since getting here it's as though he has grown another leg. I think that's the same with all the horses who have come here. I see Sea King every day and it's obvious he has blossomed since he arrived."
That was impossible to miss at Bendigo, where Sea King dazzled on his first start since joining Harry Eustace from Sir Mark Prescott, who duly sent a handwritten note of congratulations.
While Caulfield Cup seconds Buckaroo, once with Joseph O'Brien but now trained by Chris Waller, is challenging Vauban for favouritism, the Irish and British quartet occupy four of the top five spots in the betting. Success for any one of them is entirely possible, but the raider who was supposed to be the good thing of 2023 is still the buzz horse of 2024.
"If I had no involvement, I would say Vauban is the one they all have to beat," said Ellison. "He is the best horse in the field and Willie has done things differently with him this year. I think both his horses are very good – but we'll give them more of a race here than we would in Britain."
For those who do fancy Vauban, further cause for optimism comes from David Casey, Mullins' almost annual ambassador to Australia.
"From the moment he arrived this year, he looked fitter," said Casey, who on Wednesday had dinner in the city with good friend Father Joe Jocabi.
"He said to me he thinks it's our time," said Casey, adding: "I asked him to say a prayer to the big man. He told me he would have a word."
If Father Joe did indeed make that intervention, predicting a Vauban triumph is surely far from insane.
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What they say
Willie Mullins, trainer of Vauban and Absurde
I was much happier this year when I got here and saw them. They look good, straight and fit. I also think the weather might suit us better this time. It was over 30C last year, which didn't suit our horses. Vauban's form looks far superior to me, but Absurde has been in great form and I think he is maturing in his mind all the time. A lot of things seem to be aligning this time, so we just need some luck.
Chris Waller, trainer of Buckaroo, Kovalica, Land Legend, Valiant King and Manzoice
A horse like Buckaroo wouldn't be seen as a Kyprios or Stradivarius in Britain or Ireland, but we're clinging to the fact there is stamina in the pedigree. I don't know if he will or won't stay, but if he gets the perfect draw and the perfect run he'll outsprint them because he has weight-for-age speed over a mile and a quarter. Kovalica has a similar profile to Buckaroo but he's won a Queensland Derby. He has gone through the right races and come out of a Cox Plate. The biggest challenge with Land Legend is the mental one. In the last two weeks we've been working to get him to switch off and settle. He'll have earmuffs on and I would be confident of him running next to Buckaroo if he settles. Valiant King will stay the distance and got a pass mark for his Caulfield Cup run. Manzoice won the Victoria Derby two years ago and deserves to be in the Melbourne Cup.
Ciaron Maher, trainer of Circle Of Fire, Okita Soushi, Interpretation and Saint George
There isn't much between Okita Soushi and Interpretation, and I think they're peaking at the right time. Saint George is a high-quality horse and I don't think he has yet shown what he can do. It wouldn't surprise me if he goes well. Circle Of Fire was strong at two miles in the Sydney Cup but probably isn't in quite the same form as he was then.
Brian Ellison, trainer of Onesmoothoperator
Some horses don't settle when they come to Australia but he has loved it. People sometimes bring out-and-out gallopers but he has speed. After the Geelong Cup I asked Craig Williams if he wanted to ride him in the Melbourne Cup. He told me he was going to take the colours home. I'm not saying we're going to win but his price now is unbelievable.
James Cummings, trainer of Zardozi
The reality is we had ground to make up after the Caulfield Cup and I want to have her perfect for Tuesday, so we took the opportunity to run her on Saturday. She is a returning VRC Oaks winner and a worthy contender. I think we've seen stronger Cups and 51 kilos in a Cup like this one looks good for her.
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2024 Lexus Melbourne Cup at Flemington: the runners, the odds, the verdict
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