Will weight concession prove too much for leading festival fancy Bravemansgame?

Saturday: 1.15 Newbury
Betfair Cheltenham Roarcast Novices' Limited Handicap Chase | Class 3 | 2m7½f | 5yo+ | ITV/RTV

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It has been widely discussed how unusual a preparation for Cheltenham Bravemansgame is having by running in a handicap. On the flip side, it could be argued this is just part of the method acting for a horse long ago nominated by his trainer as a successor to Denman.

Before 2017 this race was not a handicap and in 2007 Denman won it by 36 lengths on his way to an equally impressive victory in what was then the Royal & SunAlliance Chase. Other winners in the pre-handicap days include Diamond Harry, Smad Place and Unioniste, so this is a race of pedigree.

Bravemansgame is rated 15lb higher than any horse who has contested the race in its handicap guise and is only 2lb lower than Denman when he won his first Hennessy. He has pushed three of his five rivals out of the weights, Gallyhill (7lb) and IK Brunel (10lb) by a significant amount.

The main danger to Bravemansgame is likely to come from one of the two other horses running off their proper mark. Pats Fancy and Grumpy Charley have both been transformed by fences, the former in particular as he is 18lb higher on RPRs than he was over hurdles after just three chase runs.

It is not hard to see why on collateral form, as he has had Mandarin and Classic Chase second Gericault Roque and Festival Trials day winner Imperial Alcazar in second on his last two runs. He looks a proper stayer and the Welsh National might be his connections' idea of a long-term target.

Grumpy Charley could prove even more of a threat. He beat the reopposing Fern Hill handsomely here on his second chase run in December and further progress is easy to foresee, not least because all three of his dam's previous foals gained black type over jumps.

He might appear to be dropping down a level before his principal assignment, but be assured that if Bravemansgame wins this convincingly he will have almost certainly enhanced his claims of further following in Denman's footsteps at Cheltenham.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

Paul Nicholls: Bravemansgame is in good order

Bravemansgame is the highest-rated horse to have run in a novice handicap chase in Britain since 1988.

Some will say Bravemansgame faces a tall order conceding lumps of weight to all of his rivals in a limited handicap, but he has looked an exceptionally talented recruit to chasing, and it will be a surprise if he doesn't turn up at Cheltenham next month with an unbeaten record over fences.

Even though he was displaced as favourite near the off by Ahoy Senor last time out in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices' Chase at Kempton, there seemed an air of inevitability about the way he powered clear up the straight, having jumped and travelled supremely well throughout.

Whether Ahoy Senor was a little below his best or not, that could prove to be the standout staying novice chase formline in Britain ahead of the festival.

Despite having endured a poor start to the year, Paul Nicholls is in confident mood. "He's in good order and appears to have done everything right," the trainer said. "We've had a couple of disappointing weeks but I'd like to think for him, and the others, it's not too much of a problem."

Nicholls always intended to use the Newbury race as Bravemansgame's stepping stone to Cheltenham, but warns he won't be at his peak – irrespective of the cloud which currently hangs over the stable.

"He was always going to run on this day as his prep for Cheltenham and I've left plenty to work on, he's not wound up to win at Newbury," he said. "There's plenty to work on between now and Cheltenham and I'm very happy with him."

What they say

Ben Case, trainer of Fern Hill
He's in good form. He's a bit 'wrong' at the weights, but that applies to a couple of others as well. There's a possibility he may not run if I walk the course and am not happy with the ground, but I think that's unlikely. He is a nice, big chasing type, and still quite babyish. If he's in the first three I'll be delighted.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Gallyhill
We were always coming here and seeing Bravemansgame in it wasn't what I expected. I expected to be winning this race and now I don't! We've got to get our horse off the ground and doing what he's capable of. He's been desperately unlucky in his two starts over fences.

Olly Murphy, trainer of IK Brunel
He's in good form. It's a funny race in respect of how the weights have worked out, but he won well at Newbury last time and hopefully has a chance.

Saturday previews:

2.05 Warwick: trainer views and insight for Kingmaker clash between Edwardstone and Third Time Lucki

2.25 Newbury: can Clan Des Obeaux shrug off the doubts with Denman Chase victory?

3.00 Newbury: 'Still improving' Hitman bids to get Paul Nicholls back on track in Game Spirit

3.15 Warwick: 'He's working nicely and well capable' – analysis and quotes for tricky handicap

3.35 Newbury: key trainer quotes and analysis for the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury