Will Mother Earth's course form prove decisive or is that too simple?

Wednesday: 4.20 Royal Ascot
Duke of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2) | 1m | 4yo+ fillies and mares | ITV/Sky

When it comes to races on Ascot’s straight track, everyone is in agreement that course form is vital. So maybe this race is an open-and-shut case: it will be won by Mother Earth.

Of the eight runners in the line-up, Mother Earth is the only horse to have recorded a Racing Post Rating in excess of 100 on the straight course at Ascot. That sets the standard.

Her sole run over a straight mile at this course resulted in a three-and-a-quarter-length fifth behind Baaeed in last year’s Queen Elizabeth II Stakes and she was awarded a RPR of 115.

That is better than any other horse has managed to achieve at any track, bar Saffron Beach’s 118 at Newmarket last year, but Saffron Beach has a 5lb penalty for that Group 1 success.

Mother Earth therefore has the right profile. A mile is her trip, she has the best overall form at the weights, the best course form and is trained by Aidan O’Brien and ridden by Ryan Moore. They have teamed up for nearly double (32) the number of Royal Ascot winners than any other trainer and jockey combination this century. Surely the others may as well not turn up?

If racing were that simple then bookmakers would not exist and if something looks too good to be true, it probably is too good to be true. That is the adage I adhere to and connections clearly do not see this as a penalty kick for Mother Earth because they now fit first-time cheekpieces.

When O’Brien reaches for the sheepskin the alarm bells ring in my head because his record when adding that type of headgear is decidedly moderate. Since the start of 2017, he has saddled just six winners from 65 runners (nine per cent) wearing the aid for the first time.

That nine per cent strike-rate is less than half his total strike-rate (19 per cent) in Britain and Ireland in that time and his horses improve for their first experience of headgear. His record with horses in cheekpieces second time is much better at 9-31 (29 per cent; +£25.37 to £1 stakes).

If that is not enough to deter you, then have a look at the opposition. Yes, Mother Earth is the only horse with any course form, but six of the other seven runners have yet to run on Ascot's straight course and how do we know they will not be at least as good, if not better, there?

Take Saffron Beach, for example. She has yet to run here, but her sire New Bay’s progeny appear to love Ascot’s straight track. The sire is 4-10 on the course and two of the winners came at this mile trip, including one Royal Ascot winner – Perotto in last year’s Britannia.

So when the expert on the TV tells you course form is vital and that Saffron Beach does not have it, sit back and relax safe in the knowledge that racing is far more complex than that.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

'We know she's been training well'

Saffron Beach elevated her trainer Jane Chapple-Hyam to levels she was not accustomed to last season, finishing second in the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket and returning to the same course in the autumn to land the handler's first Group 1 in the Sun Chariot Stakes.

The four-year-old returned with another rock-solid performance in the Dubai Turf when fourth behind dead-heaters Panthalassa and Lord North, winning her connections £185,185.19, over £10,000 more than is up for grabs in Wednesday’s Duke of Cambridge Stakes.

Saffron Beach had Mother Earth (purple) in behind when they last met in the Sun ChariotCredit: Steve Davies

However, the prestige of Royal Ascot means it was always going to form part of Saffron Beach’s schedule this season, with Chapple-Hyam seeking to add to her sole success at the meeting, when Judgethemoment won the 2009 Ascot Stakes.

The filly runs in the colours of James Wigan, Ollie Sangster and Ben Sangster, Chapple-Hyam’s step-brother, who said: “We know she’s been training well and has a good draw for the race, which is positive along with the ground. She’s a very talented filly, and Jane’s been pleased with what she’s done, so you would hope that she’d be very competitive in this race.”

Mother Earth crosses swords with Saffron Beach for a third time when the pair line up at Royal Ascot, with Mother Earth capturing the 1,000 Guineas, finishing second in the Sun Chariot Stakes but also finishing in front of her rival in the Falmouth Stakes last summer.

Trainer Aidan O’Brien has opted for a set of cheekpieces on the filly after she finished down the field in the Lockinge Stakes last time, and said: “Things just didn't happen for her in the Lockinge. It opened up too early for her and that didn't suit.

“She's a filly who loves cover and that's why we have decided to put cheekpieces on her. We decided to come here rather than the Queen Anne and we've been very happy with her since Newbury.”

What they say

Christopher Head, trainer of Sibila Spain
I think it’s going to be a nice race, we won’t have any excuse for being boxed in and we’ll be able to ride her for herself. I’m expecting a very good performance. I feel like I have her in better form than ever, maybe because she had an easier race last time when coming from behind. She's really well. This race has been the plan since the winter.

Tom Marquand, rider of Bashkirova
It’s a relatively quick turnaround but she won at Epsom without having to dig too deep, so it wasn’t a really difficult race for her. She’s a filly with a lot of talent and she will appreciate going back on to a more conventional course. The ground should be just what she wants as well, so there are a lot of positives.

Nicolas Caullery, trainer of Kennella
Even if she’d won at Longchamp I wouldn’t have been confident of winning here but it has been her objective for a while and I think a mile will be a better distance for her. She has a race under her belt and she will run much better for that. There is nothing like a race to bring her on and I hope she can finish in the first three.

Peter Schiergen, trainer of Novemba
She needed her first run of the year and she has definitely improved for it. She has had no problems working on a straight gallop in the mornings. It will be very different ground to when she ran in the Coronation last year and while she has no problem on good, it’s her first start on fast going. I think she will be fine on it.

Ed Walker, trainer of Primo Bacio
She wasn't right after her disappointing first run, at a time when a lot of my horses weren't healthy, and we've given her a lot of time to get over it. I still believe that she's a very good filly and that proper fast ground is the key to her – she hasn't had it for a long time. She'll be suited by the straight mile too.

David O’Meara, trainer of Thunder Beauty
Often she prefers a bit more give in the ground but she's in good form and hopefully she can run a nice race.
Reporting by Peter Scargill

Read more of Wednesday's Royal Ascot previews:

2.30 Royal Ascot: Karl Burke: I really do think she has the potential to be a special filly

3.05 Royal Ascot: Can Nahanni recover from Derby horror show to give Appleby back-to-back wins?

3.40 Royal Ascot: Sir Michael Stoute has eyes on the prize as Bay Bridge faces toughest test yet

5.00 Royal Ascot: Trainer quotes and draw analysis for a red-hot Royal Hunt Cup

5.35 Royal Ascot: Are we dealing with a potential 'good thing' in the shape of Little Big Bear?

6.10 Royal Ascot: Could Royal Ascot's newest race break the rule for races over a mile?

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