Will Hurricane Lane be fully tuned up on his return in Hardwicke?

Saturday: 3.40 Royal Ascot
Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) | 1m4f | 4yo+ | ITV/Sky

There are three types of odds-on favourite. One you think will win but the price is wrong, one you think will win but the price is right and one you fancy has a greater chance of losing than winning. Hardwicke Stakes favourite Hurricane Lane is placed in the third category and arguably should be odds against.

That is not to crab Hurricane Lane. The Frankel colt is 6lb clear on official figures and was sent off the 3-1 favourite for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. The three-time Group 1 winner was third at Longchamp when last seen at the end of an outstanding three-year-old campaign close to that of Derby and King George hero Adayar’s in terms of raw achievement.

However, punters must contemplate whether Hurricane Lane will be fully tuned up on his return from 258 days off on ground faster than he has previously encountered, and against several high-class, race-fit rivals.

This looks an up to scratch running and the average Racing Post Rating handed to the Hardwicke winner is 121. Hurricane Lane will need to be somewhere near his best to record a figure that high and is worth bypassing at a short price.

There are a number of dangers and the feeling is Broome will not be far away. Broome caught the eye when a running-on fifth on his comeback in the Tattersalls Gold Cup. That race unearthed this week’s Prince of Wales’s Stakes winner State Of Rest and the 1m2½f there was slightly short of his best trip.

Broome’s standout performance came over 1m4f at Del Mar on firm ground when runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Turf last November. He has previous in the Hardwicke, when second to Wonderful Tonight on soft last year, and seems sure to run his race, having missed the tougher Prince of Wales’s earlier in the week.

Also ducking Royal Ascot’s richest race in favour of the Hardwicke is Mostahdaf. It maybe merely conjecture to ponder whether Shadwell did not declare long-term Hardwicke ante-post second favourite Al Aasy in order to avoid a better horse in Mostahdaf, but that theory is worth considering.

The majority of Frankel’s highest-rated progeny are strong stayers at 1m4f and Mostahdaf is an unknown quantity at the distance. A double-figure price is surely an underestimation of his credentials.

The suspicion is Third Realm needs softer ground and Shamardal gelding Solid Stone will prefer shorter. Another neglected in the betting could be the rapidly improving Layfayette for Noel Meade.

Layfayette has twice put High Definition to the sword at the Curragh this spring and that horse has since advertised the form by nearly capturing the Tattersalls Gold Cup and shaping okay when third at Epsom in the Coronation Cup.

While Layfayette’s improvement has coincided with being held up for a turn of foot over 1m2f, that weapon could easily remain a big factor over 1m4f for a five-year-old whose best performance at four came at a staying distance.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders

Hurricane Lane sets out on road back to Paris

This season is about avenging a narrow defeat in last year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe for Hurricane Lane, with the Hardwicke Stakes the starting point for that mission.

Trained by Charlie Appleby for Godolphin, Hurricane Lane went off favourite in Paris and was only run down yards from the line by 72-1 shot Torquator Tasso and Tarnawa, leaving connections, which included jockey James Doyle, dejected.

William Buick is back on board last year’s Irish Derby, Grand Prix de Paris and St Leger winner, and Appleby is optimistic Hurricane Lane will be able to begin his season in the perfect way as he builds towards this year’s Arc.

“We have been delighted with how Hurricane Lane has done physically from three to four and this race has always been our target, working back from the Arc again,” Appleby said.

“He took in a nice racecourse gallop at Newmarket, which he needed to switch on his racing brain. He will have come on for that physically and mentally, and we have been very pleased with him since.

“We know that his preferred ground is on the easy side of good, but it was pretty quick when he won the Irish Derby. If anything, he looks sharper than last year and the team is very excited to see him have his first outing of the year.”

What they say

Jose Santos, assistant to Ismail Mohammed, trainer of Away He Goes
We were trying to run in the Melbourne Cup last year and it was frustrating that he got injured just before the race. He's been to Dubai since and he's been fixed up before coming back to us at the end of April. He's in good condition so we're hopeful of a really good run, although the trip is shorter than ideal for him.

Aidan O'Brien, trainer of Broome
He's a solid horse. We brought him back for the Tattersalls Gold Cup and we were happy with him in that. He's back up in trip now and that will definitely suit him. He seems very well.

Noel Meade, trainer of Layfayette
He's in very good form, we couldn't be happier with him. It's a very strong race. We wouldn't mind a bit of rain. Hopefully, he'll give a good account of himself. This is a good test, it's a Group 1 race ran as a Group 2 but hopefully he can go well.

Thady Gosden, joint-trainer Mostahdaf
He ran into a good one in the shape of Bay Bridge at Sandown last time, but still ran well and he shapes as if he should get this trip. He must have fast ground, so hopefully it stays dry for him.

Bruce Raymond, racing manager for Saeed Suhail, owner of Solid Stone
He's got a chance, although I don't see him beating the favourite. I feel Sir Michael [Stoute] is using the race to see where he is with the horse, and I suspect he'll end up aiming at Group 1s aboard. He's in really good form though, as all of Michael's are right now.

Roger Varian, trainer of Third Realm
He's been declared but he'd need storms to develop.
Reporting by Peter Scargill

Day five at Royal Ascot:

2.30 Ascot: Is this Ballydoyle's next star? Aidan O'Brien on the exciting Alfred Munnings

3.05 Ascot: Is Noble Truth the one to beat? Jersey Stakes analysis and insight

4.20 Ascot: 'Same preparation and same form' - but will Home Affairs emulate Nature Strip?

5.00 Ascot: Trainer quotes and analysis to help you solve a Wokingham like no other

5.35 Ascot: 'He goes there with a good chance' - key quotes for the Golden Gates Stakes

6.10 Ascot: 'He looked like he wasn't stopping' - can O'Brien and Moore claim Ascot closer?

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