Will front-runners dominate or can patient tactics pay dividends in a race that often defies Cheltenham trends?

Staying handicap chases at Cheltenham have often been dominated by front-runners and that was particularly true of this one from 2011 to 2013 as Balthazar King completed a hat-trick.

There have been other notable prominent racers to have success in recent seasons, with Cogry (2017), Frodon (2020) and Lord Accord (2022) having won from the front or just behind it. However, it is fair to say that those who were ridden patiently have more than held their own.

Roalco De Farges (2014), Whats Happening (2015), Coologue (2016), Relentless Dreamer (2018) and Definite Plan (2021) all had either held up, midfield or mid-division in their form-book race comments, so it’s evidently not impossible to come from behind and be successful.

The front-runner bias probably still exists, but it appears to have been a little softer in this race than in other staying handicap chases at the track in recent years so why might that have been?

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Ground is a possible explanation. The softer conditions are, the more front-runners tend to be favoured, and this meeting, coming in October, is often run on some of the fastest ground at Cheltenham all year. The timing of the fixture, at the start of the winter, may also play a part.

There have been some front-runners who were lacking a recent run and, if you are forced to go hard from the front but lack fitness, it will take its toll in the closing stages.

Fitness won’t be an issue for market leaders Quick Draw and Lord Accord, who both come here with a run under their belts. Quick Draw made all at Ludlow 17 days ago, while Lord Accord is bidding to follow up last year’s victory and had a prep over hurdles at Warwick.

They will probably force the pace, but Hidden Heroics will also be right there and, if they do go too quickly the hold-up horses will be closing. Look out for Kinondo Kwetu and Yes Indeed arriving with delayed challenges in a race that could change complexion late on.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

Twig aiming to stick it to his rivals

Twig was a rapid improver earlier in the year and he bids to rattle off a hat-trick on his return to action.

The Ben Pauling-trained eight-year-old was last seen winning Uttoxeter's Summer Cup in early July, having also landed a handicap hurdle at the track in May.

He makes his comeback from 118 days off and Pauling hopes there is still more improvement in him and that any rain stays away from Prestbury Park to boost his chances.

"Twig has gone from strength to strength and you never know where the ceiling is with him, as he only does what he has to do," he said. "He's a great credit to everybody and we're looking forward to seeing how he gets on."

Twig holds an entry in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury next month, which he is 25-1 for, and Pauling hopes Saturday's contest can propel him towards loftier targets in the future.

He added: "He holds some positive entries for the rest of the season and likes better ground, so hopefully it'll be good to soft and no worse than that for him."

What they say

Henry de Bromhead, trainer of Amirite and Whacker Clan
Amirite is in great form and it looks like he's going to get his ideal ground. What he wants is just nice jumping ground. It was far too testing for him in the Irish National and that's probably why he ran the way he did. Whacker Clan is in good order, too, and has a nice weight. He won well at Tramore last time.

Neil Mulholland, trainer of Brief Times and Lord Accord
Lord Accord won this last season and I was happy with his run at Warwick the other day. Brief Times has been in great form through the summer so it's nice to be represented with two good chances. The ground will be good for them.

Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Undersupervision
He usually runs well at Cheltenham. He's in good form and fit so we're expecting him to run well.

Olly Murphy, trainer of The Wolf
He's either good or bad, but he seems to be in good form. He likes the track and has run well here before, and if he gets out the right side of bed then he's got an each-way chance. He's capable of running a good race when he wants to do so.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Quick Draw
I was very pleased with what he did at Ludlow and he's come out of it very well. He would like a sound surface and it's a quick return, but he seems to be in good form so we thought we'd have a go at this.
Reporting by Matt Rennie

Read the rest of our Saturday previews:

1.15 Cheltenham: Is the progressive Haddex Des Obeaux the next Grade 1 winner to emerge from this competitive handicap chase?

1.50 Cheltenham: It's Blueking D'Oroux's race to lose - but can anything stop the Paul Nicholls good thing? 

2.10 Doncaster: 'Bad ground is a worry' - Aidan O'Brien and Charlie Appleby on Futurity favourites Diego Velazquez and Ancient Wisdom 

3.00 Cheltenham: 'He goes there at the top of his game' - analysis and key quotes for Pertemps qualifier 

Flooring Porter poised for chase debut and Grand National hero Corach Rambler returns as jumps season ramps up 

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