Why it could pay to look past two market leaders in the Duke of Edinburgh

Friday: 3.40 Royal Ascot
Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap) | 1m4f | 3yo+ | ITV/Sky

A winning single-figure stall has not emerged from the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes in the last decade and advantages can be gained from being drawn middle or high on the round course at Ascot over a mile and a half.

With those doubts it may be prudent to overlook clear market leaders Just Fine (stall 7) and Trawlerman (3). Their chances of meeting trouble in running are increased from those starting positions and the fact four of the next seven in the market are also drawn in single figures means this handicap has a lovely shape to it for each-way betting.

As is customary in big-field Royal Ascot handicaps, there are any number of potentially well-treated sorts. Top of the list is Ajero for leading jumps trainer Kim Bailey.

Alan King landed this with high-class hurdler Scarlet Dragon in 2020 and Ajero is similarly rated over hurdles. The weight-for-age scale in Flat novices is heavily skewed in the favour of three-year-olds against older horses, and Ajero has run three races filled with promise when second to three such types over 1m2f this spring.

Ajero would have bolted up at Chepstow on his first start in this sphere had he not thrown away ten lengths at the start when narrowly beaten by a well-bred 81-rated William Haggas-trained runner, who was receiving 17lb.

He then bumped into top prospect Francesco Clemente at Sandown. That horse was receiving 7lb and is entered in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe later in the season.

A third and final second came back at Chepstow in May and Ajero was repeatedly denied a run that day, succumbing by only a length to a promising Simon Crisford-trained three-year-old who enjoyed the run of the race in receipt of a stone.

Bailey’s contender should have won twice on the Flat by now and there are further reasons to believe this half-brother to Grade 2 Peterborough Chase winner Charbel could be thrown in off an opening mark of 89.

He has sneaked in as the lowest-rated runner in the field, is guaranteed to be suited by an extra two furlongs, and is drawn well in stall ten. That box proved a winning one in 2013.

Remarkably, 70 per cent of the previous ten winners were either drawn in 19 (four winners) or 12 (three) and that will leave connections of Kenzai Warrior in 19 and Gold Maze 12 purring.

Kenzai Warrior was never meant to be a handicapper. He was a Group 3 winner at two who contested the Hampton Court Stakes at this meeting two seasons ago after a Group 1 ninth in the Vertem Futurity Trophy.

However, progeny of Karakontie are better known as milers and there are limited signs this 1m4f trip is what Kenzai Warrior needs.

Gold Maze makes more appeal. We know he stays and his first run for Jamie Osborne after a 326-day break, when fifth of 16 over this course and distance in May, was encouraging.

He was sent off a 50-1 shot and finished as well as anything bar runaway winner Juan De Montalban and looks well treated on past form.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders

Just Fine 'in very good form'

It has been some time since the Queen’s colours were carried to success in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes, but in Just Fine she may have the horse to end that run.

The Queen’s previous winner of the race came in 1999 when Blueprint, trained by Sir Michael Stoute and ridden by ace American jockey Gary Stevens, landed the 1m4f contest comfortably as the 4-1 market leader.

The previous year, Blueprint had run in the King George V Stakes, a race over the same course and distance but for three-year-olds, showing his capability to handle a big-field handicap, the track at Ascot, and the atmosphere of the day.

Roll forward to now and Just Fine is likely to be among the leading contenders for this year’s Duke of Edinburgh Stakes, with Stoute patiently guiding and shaping the four-year-old’s career so far.

Last year, Just Fine ran in the King George V Stakes and had a preparatory run for Royal Ascot when third at York last month, his first start over 1m4f since running at the royal meeting last year.

John Warren, racing adviser to the Queen, said: “Just Fine has a decent draw [in stall seven] and is in very good form. After his last start at York we are hopeful that he sees out the 12 furlongs strongly as last year. As a three-year-old, he was more effective over ten furlongs.”

What they say

Jessica Harrington, trainer of Ever Present
He's carrying lots of weight but I didn't think he was going to get into a handicap, so we're delighted he has. He hasn't run for a while but he's been in good form and he certainly knows how to win races.

Johnny Murtagh, trainer of Mashhoor
One of the owners is a County Meath legend called Tommy Dowd who, for those who don't know him, is like the Wayne Rooney of gaelic football. You'd obviously like to be coming to Ascot without the 12lb penalty he got for winning at the Curragh. He's up in trip, so we'll be patient on him and look for a bit of luck in running.

Roger Teal, trainer of Kenzai Warrior
He’s not got a great draw at all, which is a real shame. He’s in good order otherwise and I think he’ll get the trip on his first try at it. I’d have just loved a draw towards the middle with him.

Thady Gosden, joint-trainer of Trawlerman
He hasn't many miles on the clock but won well on his comeback at Chelmsford and has a reasonable draw in stall three. He's a progressive type and goes there with an each-way shout.

Karl Burke, trainer of Kelly's Dino
He's been a brilliant horse for us. He's coming back from another injury and he ran a respectable first race at Haydock. He was always going to need that and he's stripping fitter all the time. I hope he can run a solid race.

William Knight, trainer of Moktasaab
He didn’t handle Epsom at all, he never came down the hill that day. The original plan had been to go to Epsom and then to the John Smith’s Cup at York, but he was so well after his last run we thought this looked a good opportunity for him. He’s stepping up in trip and he’s not sure to stay, although his pedigree gives us hope he will and he relaxes well in his races.

Nicola Barron, joint-trainer of Contact
It’s been the plan for a wee while to go to Royal Ascot and it was just a case of whether it was this race or the Copper Horse, and he was balloted out of that. He is a strong stayer and we think 1m6f may bring out more improvement, but he keeps winning and running well at this trip.

George Baker, trainer of Cemhaan
He looks a thoroughly progressive staying horse in the making. He did really well over the winter and that’s helped him develop into this exciting horse he is now. I don’t see the ground being an issue at all, and it’d be lovely if he could keep progressing and maybe sneak into something like the Ebor in time.

Kim Bailey, trainer of Ajero
He’s run really well in his three races so far to get a mark and I’m delighted he made the cut, as I didn’t think he’d get in. The question is whether he’s on a good handicap mark or not, and I wouldn’t have a clue to be frank. He’ll have no problems with the ground.
Reporting by Peter Scargill

Friday at Royal Ascot:

2.30 Ascot: 'She's working really well and she's probably overpriced' - key Albany quotes

3.05 Ascot: 'He's in the form of his life' - analysis and quotes for the Commonwealth Cup

4.20 Ascot: Thady Gosden: Inspiral is ready for a race but she will improve from it

5.00 Ascot: 'She's been laid out for this' - the Queen's runner primed for Sandringham

5.35 Ascot: Can punters trust the quick Derby turnaround time in the King Edward VII?

6.10 Ascot: Wesley Ward: We've just been messing but now we're planning to get serious

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