Why dropping in distance should be no problem for Stradivarius

It is rare before an Arc that punters must ask whether or not one of the main players will have enough speed for the trip.

Stradivarius is second-favourite behind stablemate Enable, but has spent the vast majority of his career as a stayer, winning three Gold Cups at Ascot among his seven Group 1s.

Historically, this question would have required heavy reliance on visual impressions and supposition. Nowadays, striding data can make a more quantitative case. In this instance, it gives plenty of encouragement to the many fans Stradivarius has picked up over the years.

The graphic below, put together using data from Total Performance Data, shows that Stradivarius's stride pattern has far more in common with a middle-distance horse (the example is his same owner's English King) than a typical stayer (Doncaster Cup winner Spanish Mission).

The idea is that quicker strides are associated with speed, something that holds in an overwhelming majority of cases. Longer strides are associated with ability, although the correlation here is a touch weaker.

In striding terms, Stradivarius is something of a freak. There is a clue in his stride length. He covers relatively little ground per stride, but can cram in more strides.

The inference from comparing his record with his abnormally short and quick action is that he has an unusual ability to switch off in his races and uses his scratchy style to outpace his rivals in staying races, which are rarely run at an end-to-end gallop.

What it ultimately means, or rather should mean in theory, is that he is better equipped than most stayers for this drop back in trip and he should be able to show his best side in the Arc.

With the caveat that he is clearly atypical, if Stradivarius does not come up to the mark excuses concerning the trip would not be all that convincing.

All data courtesy of Total Performance Data, in conjunction with Longines Swiss Timing from all meetings from Ascot