Why a double-figure draw should not scare punters in deeply competitive Chester Cup

The fact seven of the first eight in the early betting for the 17-runner Chester Cup are positioned in the bottom eight stalls serves to highlight the perceived necessity of a low draw with bookmakers and punters. While a single-figure box is clearly a help rather than a hindrance at this tight-turning track, punters eyeing up one at a price in a double-figure box need not be completely deterred.

Of the 36 horses to finish in the first four positions in the past nine runnings, 42 per cent (15) were drawn in stall ten or higher and four of those won. Nine of the 15 were also double-figure prices at SP and each-way rewards can be obtained if the correct ‘poorly drawn’ horses are identified, and if they get luck in running.

Capturing any top-class handicap requires a well-treated horse and the market has latched on to Falcon Eight. The reasons are clear: he won the race two seasons ago, is respectably drawn in stall four and is partnered by Ryan Moore, who is 12-30 (40 per cent) at Chester over the past five seasons and executed a brilliant ride on Cleveland to down the chucked-in Coltrane in this last season.