Who should 'devour' the Grand National fences in an ultra-competitive Topham Chase?

It is important to remember the Topham is more of a rhythm race than the Grand National. 'Rhythm' is one of those annoying words which is used by horsepeople yet difficult for punters to factor in.

We can break it down a bit to give us a clue. A horse's rhythm is upset by changing speed. That is in turn caused by either inefficient jumping (even Frodon lost about ten per cent of his speed jumping a fence) or acceleration for other reasons, usually tactical. Minimise those factors and you find a rhythm.

The Topham is a rhythm race because horses are going slightly faster so the penalties for a poor jump are somewhat greater. Also, it is more likely to be an evenly run race. The gallop in the National will always let up at some point and that is the best time for closers to move forward.

A good jumper who can hold their position and who jumps well would match the ideal criteria for the Topham. Being the best handicapped horse helps, but multiple and veteran winners like Ultragold and Livelovelaugh show that is not vital.

The early market has alighted on the right sorts of horse. Bill Baxter is last year's winner. Shakem Up'Arry has the jumping and engine as well as being well handicapped and strong on soft ground. James Du Berlais is likely to get the ideal sort of ride, having played the hare in other big-field handicaps this season.

There is some appeal among the large raft of horses further down the field, too. Grandads Cottage thrives on soft ground and has recently announced himself as a genuine two-and-a-half miler. Note also that Sean Bowen rides him over his father Peter's Francky Du Berlais, despite them being similar prices and Bowen snr's excellent record in the race.

Celebre D'Allen is similarly a horse for this sort of trip playing over further. His connections are only just restarting the experiment to drop back with this lightly raced 12-year-old. He was a non-staying fourth in the Becher here in December and moving forward when badly hampered in the Kim Muir last time.

However, the most appealing of all is another adept spot by the oddsmakers. Life In The Park was fourth in the Plate behind Shakem Up'arry, when last seen, and came from a long way back, much more so than the first three. He kept on powerfully up the hill once jumping was out of the way, but had not actually jumped badly. He was slow at a couple of important fences, rather than sloppy, and that is at least missing on the right side.

The Topham is about getting into a rhythm, but hitting these big spruce fences remains a far greater sin than popping over them.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

RP Recommends: how to bet on the Topham Handicap Chase

By Tom Park, audience editor

A hugely competitive affair over the Grand National fences and it could prove wise to take advantage of Sky Bet's seven places here. Bill Baxter and Shakem Up'arry have been all the rage in the betting over the last couple of days and they are taking up a big percentage of the market, meaning there is value to be found. Flegmatik looks a massive price and he's been running well all season, and he could make the top seven at a big odds.

RP Recommends: Sky Bet

Can 'Arry find the back of the net at another festival?

Shakem Up'Arry aims to score a big-race brace at the spring festivals and heads a two-strong formidable attack for Ben Pauling in his attempt for a first success in the Topham Chase.

The ten-year-old, who is owned by football manager Harry Redknapp, landed the most notable success of his career in the Plate under Ben Jones at last month's Cheltenham Festival, and has his first try over the Grand National fences.

He could kick off a huge double on the card for Pauling and Redknapp, who also have The Jukebox Man in the Sefton Novices' Hurdle, while the trainer is also represented by fellow leading candidate Your Darling, who was an impressive winner at Ascot in November.

"Shakem Up'Arry is coming off the back of a win at the Cheltenham Festival and he’s still in really good order. He should devour the fences," Pauling said.

"Your Darling has been laid out for this race and he's best when fresh. He schooled well over the fences the other day in Lambourn."

Harry Redknapp celebrates victory in the Plate with Shakem Up'Arry

Harry Redknapp: seeking more big-race success with Shakem Up'ArryCredit: Alan Crowhurst

What they say

Willie Mullins, trainer of Classic Getaway, James Du Berlais and Aime Desjy James Du Berlais has been running well all year and with his style of jumping and method of racing, this race could be made for him. He has a big chance. Classic Getaway has been his own worst enemy in his most recent runs. If Patrick [Mullins] manages to settle him and harness that energy into the right direction, he’s the right type for the race and has his chance. Aime Desjy has improved all season. I don’t think we’ve reached the best with him yet, and if he handles these fences he's an each-way chance.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Fantastic Lady
She was second last year and we're looking forward to it. She's not run for a while, but she's not a winter-ground mare.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Flegmatik
He has had a very productive season around the likes of Ascot and Kempton. I've always wanted to run him in this race and now's the time. He's jumped over some replica fences at home and enjoyed them. He's a long price, but he has experience of big handicaps.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Kandoo Kid and Quel Destin
Both of them schooled well over the National fences at Lambourn. We were in two minds about the ground with Kandoo Kid, but he ran really well when it was testing at Newbury last time – Harry [Cobden] and I nominated him for this after that. Quel Destin has it all to do but will like the ground.

Stuart Edmunds, trainer of Arizona Cardinal We couldn't be happier with him. He's been in great form the last twice and the ground shouldn't bother him either. It'll also help slow them down over the first two fences and he ticks a lot of boxes.

Kim Bailey, trainer of The Edgar Wallace
He deserves to have a run in a big race as he's had a really good season. He probably should have won all his races and has been slightly unlucky in his last two. He's a 33-1 shot and should be a bit better than that.

Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Good Boy Bobby He’s done nothing wrong this season. The trip is a bit on the short side for him, but the soft ground won’t bother him and should make it more of a suitable test.

Warren Greatrex, trainer of Bill Baxter
He seems to have really lifted again. The fences bring out the best in him and he feels better at this time of year. He'll have his ground and he's on a similar weight to last year so he ticks a lot of boxes.

Olly Murphy, trainer of Grandads Cottage
The trip is ideal, he'll love the ground and jumping is his forte. He's a big price for a horse who is hopefully progressing and if he gets in a rhythm he'll run well.

Joe Tizzard, trainer of Killer Kane
He was third in it last year and took to the fences really well. I'm hoping he enjoys himself again and he's got no weight on his back.
Reporting by Matt Rennie

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