'We've saved him for this - I think he’ll run very well' - who fancies their chances in a wide-open Wokingham?

Looking at the depth to this year's Wokingham, it is hard to believe that the quality in the race is decreasing. Yet if you go by the numbers, it is.

In the 2010s, it was typical for the lowest-rated horse to be on a BHA mark of at least 97 and for more than 20 of the runners to be rated 100 or higher. This year the floor is set at 95 and there are 16 runners rated in triple digits. That is a slight uptick on the last two years.

There has been a small realignment in how sprinters are rated, which will explain much of the change. The same point stands. People will tell you to look for a Group horse in these big handicaps. If that is your only criterion in the Wokingham, then you will need to decide whether to put them in combination forecasts or tricasts.

Luckily, there are some guidelines to try to fashion at least a longlist. Most are intuitive enough. Err on the younger side as only three winners this century have been older than five. Being drawn on the higher side is generally favoured; in the last ten years around two-fifths of the placed horses have come from the top third of the draw. And give plenty of weight to course form.

There is a big personal fancy who just happens to fit all the criteria. Dark Trooper was one of my horses of the season last year. He improved all the way through the summer, winning twice over this course and distance, before going off 4-1 for the Group 3 Bengough Stakes.

Here it gets a little hazy, as he left Ed Walker and went to Qatar with Alban de Mieulle. Doha form is hard to get a handle on and most British racing fans will know De Mieulle only by reputation, if at all. Luckily, Dark Trooper ran at Saint-Cloud four weeks ago and showed he has continued to progress. In a race where the second, third and fourth held the first three positions most of the way, he cruised round the field and won by over two lengths. He is a Group horse, as he was going to prove last season before time ran out.

His draw in 24 is theoretically sound. Closer inspection is not quite so encouraging. The greater concentration of pace is among the lower numbers. Apollo One, The Bell Conductor and Lethal Levi are all in the first six stalls. On the other side, hopes are now pinned on Cover Up in stall 29. The lower cohort are more set in their front-running ways. That is significant, because Dark Trooper's main rival at the head of the betting, Albasheer, is drawn right on the stands' rail in stall 31.

What the Wokingham has in common with similar handicaps is that it can be too easy to get wrapped up in the draw. Remember that last year, the race played out towards the far rail yet winner Saint Lawrence came from the second-highest stall. The year before they came near side and, although minor honours went to horses drawn 29, 31, 28 and 27, the winner came from a middle draw in 19.

What sets the Wokingham apart is the high bar to entry, which means that the winner has to have Pattern ambitions. That should be your starting point to crack Royal Ascot's last great puzzle.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

Wathnan Racing hunting more glory with Dark Trooper

Wathnan Racing have made a mighty splash at Royal Ascot this week with the wins of Leovanni, Shareholder and English Oak.

Hopes are high that progressive four-year-old Dark Trooper, a dual course-and-distance winner who relishes fast ground, can round off a magnificent five days by landing the £175,000 Wokingham for the new ownership team.

Tom Marquand brings up the first leg of his double on Dark Trooper

Dark Trooper: fits the profile of a leading Wokingham contenderCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Dark Trooper was sent off 4-1 for the Group 3 Bengough Stakes last October after his two Ascot victories and he fits the profile of a leading Wokingham contender.

Richard Brown, racing adviser to Wathnan Racing, said: “The key thing at Ascot is course form and he's won twice over course and distance.

“This straight six furlongs is right up his alley. He's in great form and won impressively at Saint-Cloud last time.”

That comfortable Saint-Cloud success was achieved on soft ground, yet he has shown his best Ascot form on good to firm. The omens look good.

Cox and Moore hoping for more sprint handicap success

Clive Cox and Ryan Moore teamed up at York last Saturday to plunder a valuable 6f handicap with James’s Delight.

A week later the pair hold perfectly realistic claims of doing so again in the Wokingham with the 104-rated Harry Three, a rising star during his three-year-old campaign – which was highlighted by an impressive Listed success at Deauville under Moore – but lightly raced since being gelded at the end of that campaign.

Cox said: “He's reunited with Ryan Moore, who was successful on him at York and Deauville in 2022.

“I was happy with his comeback at Salisbury, where he was entitled to be rusty, and a step back into handicaps was an option as he's come down a few pounds.”

Cox added: “He has some really nice form and is very much at home on a quick surface on the turf.”

Perceived wisdom is that you need a potential Group horse to win one of these major Royal Ascot handicaps.

Harry Three ticks the boxes and it would be no surprise if he managed to reignite his career spectacularly with the help of an old ally.

What they say

Alastair Donald, racing manager to King Power Racing, owners of Fivethousandtoone
We purposely didn’t run him for a while after his All-Weather finals day win at Newcastle. We've saved him for this race and think he’ll run very well.

William Haggas, trainer of Unequal Love
It’s an ordinary draw. She’s the fifth horse this week I’ve had who's been drawn in stall one. She ran well in Ireland last time and I think she’s a stakes filly. She'll need a lifetime best to win but I hope all the action is on the far side.

Thady Gosden, joint-trainer of Cover Up
He performed consistently well on the all-weather through the winter and has had a nice break since then. He's been pleasing in his work on the Limekilns and has a chance in an open race if his draw in stall 29 pans out.

Charlie Hills, trainer of Orazio
He's drawn nicely and I'm very happy with him. He might just want ease in the ground but there's a bit of rain forecast.

Charlie Hills: runs Orazio in the Wokingham StakesCredit: Edward Whitaker

George Scott, trainer of Rocket Rodney
He's a real yard favourite and won in Bahrain over the winter. As a result of that win he looks harshly treated, but he likes Ascot and I'm sure he won’t disgrace himself.

Karl Burke, trainer of Lethal Levi
He's in great form and won really well last time at Newbury with the blinkers on for the first time. If he runs up to that level, he'll be competitive.

Adam Ryan, assistant to Kevin Ryan, trainer of Aleezdancer
He’s in good form and didn’t handle Epsom last time. He'll need some rain and I'm not sure if he’ll run if it stays dry.

Richard Hannon, trainer of Mums Tipple
He wasn’t beaten far in this race last year and is 4lb lower now. A strongly run race on fast ground is right up his street and he has a decent record at the track.
Reporting by Richard Birch

Read more Saturday previews:

2.30 Ascot: 'She looked a classy filly and her jockey really liked her' - key quotes and analysis for the Chesham

3.05 Ascot: 'We'll find out just how good he is' - Continuous and Middle Earth clash in a high-class Hardwicke Stakes

3.45 Ascot: can William Buick break new ground on Mill Stream or will Kinross make it third time lucky in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes?

4.25 Ascot: 'He's always shown us plenty of pace' - can River Tiber reverse Irish 2,000 Guineas form with Haatem in Jersey Stakes?

5.40 Ascot: 'If he gets into a nice rhythm, he'll run a big race' - quotes and analysis for the Golden Gates Stakes

6.15 Ascot: 'He's put up two good performances in defeat against Kyprios' - who will come out on top in this stamina-sapping contest?