'We've always liked him from day one' - high hopes for Palmer juvenile in Acomb

Wednesday: 2.25 York
Tattersalls Acomb Stakes (Group 3) | 7f | 2yo | ITV/RTV

Hugo Palmer isn't noted for saddling winning juvenile debutants and, since the start of 2016, only 30 of his 229 two-year-old runners were successful (13 per cent) at the first attempt.

It is second time out when Palmer's youngsters usually make their mark and, in the same period, the Newmarket trainer has 37 winners from 165 juveniles who were having their second run. That's a healthier 22 per cent and a £1 bet on each yielded a profit of +26.85.

It's clear from those figures that Palmer's runners usually improve significantly for their first run, so Dubawi Legend must have a huge amount of raw ability because he scored by five lengths on his debut at Doncaster last month and recorded a Racing Post Rating of 95.

That is the highest RPR achieved by any Palmer-trained juvenile on their debut since the start of 2019 and only Powerful Breeze (92) has bettered 90 for the trainer first time out. She won the Group 2 May Hill at Doncaster on her second outing, improving 15lb on her debut RPR.

A similar amount of improvement from Dubawi Legend would get him to an RPR of 110 and that would have been high enough to have won nine of the last ten runnings of this Group 3.

Only 2lb separates four of the five runners on RPRs and Ehraz equalled Dubawi Legend's figure of 95 when winning at Ascot last time, while Noble Truth recorded 94 by beating Ehraz at Newmarket last month. There were two lengths between the pair on that occasion, but Noble Truth had the benefit of experience and they look closely matched.

Royal Patronage (best RPR 93) and Imperial Fighter (87) have more to find, but Andrew Balding saddles the last-named and has some good juveniles at home with which to measure his runner, Berkshire Shadow (best RPR 109) and Sandrine (108) among them.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

Hugo Palmer: York should play to Legend's strengths

Hugo Palmer landed his first Group 1 win in five years with juvenile Ebro River in the Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh this month and stablemate Dubawi Legend is held in even higher regard by some at the trainer's Newmarket base at Kremlin Cottage Stables.

The youngster was backed as if defeat was out of the question on his debut at Doncaster last month and duly delivered as an 11-8 favourite when scoring by five lengths from Brasil Power and Park Street, who have been placed since.

James Doyle: rides Dubawi LegendCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

Dubawi Legend was introduced into next year's Qipco 2,000 Guineas betting at 25-1 after his stunning debut by several bookmakers and it will take a good one to beat him.

Owned by Dr Ali Ridha, Dubawi Legend bids to follow in the footsteps of subsequent Group 1 winners Gear Up and Phoenix Of Spain in the five-runner contest.

Palmer said: "It looks a typical Acomb with five different maiden winners in there with five very different pieces of form. We've been very happy with Dubawi Legend since Doncaster and this race has been the plan. We've always liked him from day one at home and we expect the Knavesmire to play to his strengths."

What they say

Richard Hills, assistant racing manager to Shadwell Estates, owners of Ehraz
It's a typically competitive renewal but Richard Hannon is over the moon with Ehraz and we expect him to run a nice race. He went back to a stiff six furlongs at Ascot after running over this trip first time and this looks a good spot for him.

Oisin Murphy, rider of Imperial Fighter
He did it nicely at Goodwood first time and he's come out of that in good form. I like him and we're very much looking forward to running him again.

Charlie Appleby, trainer of Noble Truth
He progressed from his first start to win his maiden and has done well physically since. This will hopefully tell us the level we will be campaigning him at for the rest of the season.
Reporting by David Milnes

Wednesday's race previews:

1.50 York: 'The Chelmsford run should have him spot on' – trainers on the ITV opener

3.00 York: is there a St Leger winner on show? Great Voltigeur insight and trainer quotes

3.35 York: can supersub Love turn the tables on Mishriff in the Juddmonte International?

3.35 York: the Juddmonte's the best race in Britain – but here is an outsider worth backing (Members' Club)

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