Welsh National lowdown: punting angles and trainer views for the day's big race

2.50 Chepstow
Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase | Grade 3 | 3m5½f | ITV4/ATR

Henderson bids to break National spell

Nicky Henderson claims never to have won a National of any sort.

The big one at Aintree has always eluded him, while the honour rolls of satellite imitations, even the Sussex, Southern and North Yorkshire, are missing his name. The wait for National glory has been extraordinarily long but it could now come to an end – although the man himself thinks it probably will not.

Vying for favouritism in the richest Coral Welsh Grand National ever staged is the Henderson-trained Beware The Bear, triumphant in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle last time.

His credentials for the £150,000 marathon are clear but, as is generally the case, Chepstow's signature prize is certain to be staged in gruelling mud. This does not please the champion trainer, who was last represented in the showpiece some ten years ago.

Asked if his National drought might finally come to an end, he said: "I don't see why it should. We've been placed in the race, but it's not one I've had much involvement in over the years.

"This horse, though, looks made for this sort of game and he gallops and stays all day. He's progressive as well.

"On good ground I would be loving the idea of running in the race – on the sort of ground we're going to get, I'm not loving it. I know he has won on heavy but I'm sure it won't help him."

Will Kasbah rock again at Chepstow?

If Rock The Kasbah runs anything other than a mighty race it will represent a clear break from the norm.

That's because in five outings at Chepstow he has achieved form figures of 22111, the latest win coming on his most recent outing 74 days ago when he produced a performance that means he runs here under 11st 10lb.

Rock The Kasbah and Richard Johnson attempt to maintain their excellent form at ChepstowCredit: Michael Steele

"All his best form is at Chepstow but I have no idea why," said trainer Philip Hobbs. "He's straightforward but the facts are he always seems to run a very good race at Chepstow.

"He also seems to have a better record when fresh, why is why we have kept him back for the Welsh National since he won at the track in October."

He added: "I don't think heavy ground would be a problem, but I also think the further a horse goes the more weight becomes a factor, so carrying virtually top weight in heavy ground could be an issue."

If you ask Jack, Weatherman could be well treated

Although prolific in point-to-points, Ask The Weatherman has run in only three conventional races. In one of them, on unsuitably quick ground, he finished seventh in the Foxhunter, while in early November he humped 12st 4lb to victory in an Exeter handicap.

That effort led to a 6lb rating hike, which puts him on 10st 13lb on this occasion, but it remains the case that knowing how potent Nick Scholfield's partner could be in a major handicap is unclear.

Asked if he thinks Ask The Weatherman has scope from his current mark, trainer Jack Barber said: "Definitely. We haven't seen much of him under rules and I think he's running here off a fair enough rating.

"On top of that, he has never carried a weight like the one he's running off at Chepstow. He's used to carrying 12st and he won off 12st 4lb at Exeter, so he should very much like having what will feel like a featherweight on his back."

Barber added: "We have to be hopeful. He hasn't run over such a long distance before but has shown he'll get the trip. He's in really good form and schooled nicely for Nick last week."

Spud more a man now than for first Welsh tilt

Chase The Spud and Mysteree finished first and second in the Midlands Grand National and renew rivalry, with both horses proven in muddy stamina tests.

While Mysteree is making his seasonal reappearance, Chase The Spud heads to Wales having excelled when winning on atrocious ground at Haydock on Betfair Chase day. He does, however, have to erase the memory of being pulled up in this prize two seasons ago.

Chase The Spud (left) and Mysteree (right) fought out the finish of the Midlands National and now renew rivalryCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

"He's grown up," said trainer Fergal O'Brien. "He's more of a man. He didn't cope the last time he ran in the race and was beaten going to the first as he didn't handle the initial downhill run and then the first bend.

"The trip and ground are definitely in his favour and I think the track should be as well. He has a fair bit of weight but he has earned that weight. Paddy [Brennan] also knows him well, so we're very hopeful."

What the others say

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Vicente and Silsol
Vicente ran very well at Cheltenham last time on soft – he doesn't mind the soft but doesn't jump as well in it. On that form alone he has a chance, and the fact he stays four miles is a plus. Silsol will love the ground and if he comes back to form he's not without a chance.

David Dennis, trainer of Final Nudge
It was a great effort to finish second at Wincanton. He hadn't had a prep race before that, unlike the winner, and he took a blow four out. I felt he'd improve for the run but this time he should be spot on.

Evan Williams, trainer of Pobbles Bay
It's a tough race and it will be plenty testing enough following the rain, which will suit him. He'll need to come on for his Aintree run and he's got plenty of weight but we'll give it a go.

Kerry Lee, trainer of Bishops Road
I think he'll have taken a lot of confidence from his good run at Newcastle. We know he'll love the ground and this has been the aim all season.

Gavin Cromwell, trainer of Raz De Maree
The rain they've had is a plus. He'll be 13 in a few days' time but has shown no signs of losing his enthusiasm. He's only 1lb higher than when second in the race a year ago and is in good form.

Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Splash Of Ginge
It's his first time over extreme distances but I think he'll stay and we're looking forward to it. The heavy ground will be no problem.

Tom Bellamy drives for home on Splash Of Ginge in the BetVictor Gold CupCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Dan Skelton, trainer of Sir Mangan
I've trained him with this race in mind for a long time but he's never run over this trip and never run on ground this bad, so they're two unknowns. He's fit and well and comes into the race off a win.

Gordon Elliott, trainer Folsom Blue
He's fit and well and will love the testing ground. With luck in running he could be in the shake-up. He has a good each-way chance.

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