'I think he has a real chance' - big British hope Edwardstone takes on Irish

Tuesday: 2.10 CheltenhamSporting Life Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase (Grade 1) | 2m | 5yo+ | ITV/RTV

This year's field of 11 for the Arkle is above-average in recent history (the ten-year average is slightly above eight) but really there are two types of Arkle.

Seven of the last ten runnings have included an odds-on favourite. When this has been the case, fields have inevitably been smaller. The average was seven. The other three, the more open sort of Arkle into which this year's running falls, had fields of nine, 12 and 11.

All seven of the odds-on shots have won, while the other renewals have been won by horses at 33-1, 5-1 and 16-1. The casual link one could make is that open Arkles are primed for a shock. It would be better to ask what makes an open Arkle.

The Arkle runs in two parallel strands: the British and Irish programmes. We are all aware where the balance of power sits at the moment and that gives rise to an interesting hypothesis: what price about one who has been so dominant as Edwardstone, had he been running in the perceived-to-be-stronger Irish division?

There are only four British-trained horses in the Arkle and Edwardstone is the only one shorter than 25-1. This is in no small part because he has beaten all of the prospective competition, often handsomely.

It would be reasonable to ask whether scaring off Third Time Lucki really constitutes the sort of dominance that would make Edwardstone odds-on if he were trained in Ireland. But there are also indirect formlines that back up his claims.

Edwardstone has won both the Henry VIII and Wayward Lad, which are on the same card as the Tingle Creek and Desert Orchid respectively. Regardless of what he beat in his races, it has been possible to directly compare him to top two-mile chasers. He has come out of those comparisons with his reputation enhanced.

Overall times paint a rosier picture than reality, as sectional times show that the novices have been more evenly run than the open races on both occasions. Even so, Edwardstone has been recording the times of a high-class chaser and will evidently have no issue with the sort of hurtling pace they often go in the Arkle.

The Irish division has been a lot harder to work out, certainly since Racing Post Novice Chase winner Ferny Hollow was ruled out. The four shortest-priced Irish runners at the time of writing – Blue Lord, Riviere D'Etel, Haut En Couleurs and Saint Sam – all ran in the Irish Arkle last time. Here also, times revealed more than the bare form.

Saint Sam went a bit too fast at Leopardstown and Riviere D'Etel probably paid for chasing him for much of the way, while Haut En Couleurs fell early. It set up nicely for winner Blue Lord. In a truly run race it would be tough to split them and it is more likely that they are all ordinary, rather than exceptional, by Grade 1 standards.

Blue Lord (left) and Riviere D'Etel (right) fought out the finish to the Irish Arkle in FebruaryCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

A few of the others held an entry in the Grand Annual. Red Rookie, who is rated 138, almost certainly would have had a better chance in a handicap and the same probably applies to the 146-rated Brave Seasca.

Coeur Sublime is more of an edge case. His BHA chase mark is 151, but on RPRs he was the best of this whole field over hurdles. His chasing career has been quietly promising, with an easy win last time following a couple of sound runs behind Ferny Hollow when a place seemed perfectly acceptable. If there is to be another minor shock winner in an open-looking Arkle, he could be the one.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

Edwardstone ready for Irish challenge

In a race largely populated by runners from Ireland, Edwardstone is hanging tough at the top of the market having ruled the two-mile novice chase division in Britain this season. The question now is: can he keep the Irish at bay?

Officially rated the best in the field, Edwardstone has enjoyed an exceptional first season over fences, winning four chases on the bounce including the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices' Chase.

His strong suit is undoubtedly his fast and accurate jumping, a characteristic also possessed by trainer Alan King's two former Arkle winners, Voy Por Ustedes and My Way De Solzen.

"Since being brought down first time out, everything has gone to plan for Edwardstone this season and the Arkle has always been his target," said King. "He's in great form and his preparation couldn't have gone better. The ground is no issue for him and he gets the trip well.

"He may be the favourite but that's not my concern, I only focus on my horse. The talking is over now and we'll see if he's good enough – but I hope and think he has a real chance."

The next seven in the market are all trained in Ireland, with Irish Arkle one-two Blue Lord and Riviere D'Etel leading the away team's challenge.

Blue Lord triumphed by half a length on that occasion, although it could arguably have been a different result had the runner-up not made an error when leading at the last.

As well as Blue Lord, Willie Mullins runs Irish Arkle third Saint Sam and Haut En Couleurs as he chases a fifth win in the race.

Mullins said: "Blue Lord has done everything right this season. He's three from three over fences. We're keeping our fingers crossed that he jumps as well as he has in his three previous races, as that will put him right there.

"Saint Sam ran a cracker here last year when runner-up in the Boodles, coming from behind. He ran a bit free the last day but my instructions were to get him out and about. We might just change things this time – there will be plenty of pace – and ride him a bit more conservatively.

"I think that gives him a good chance. Haut En Couleurs had a fall the last time but he's schooled well at home since. If he goes out and jumps the first two without worry I think he'll run well."

Gordon Elliott, who relies solely on Riviere D'Etel, said: "She's done nothing wrong this season and last time she showed she's not a one-trick pony and doesn't have to lead. She's improving all the time and I think she's got a rock-solid chance."

What they say

Venetia Williams, trainer of Brave Seasca
He's been nicely progressive since going over fences but he'll need to step up significantly again. He can run in the Grand Annual every season, whereas he's only got one chance to run in an Arkle and he's not without a squeak.

Henry de Bromhead, trainer of Coeur Sublime and Magic Daze
Coeur Sublime is in great form. We've decided to come here rather than the Grand Annual and he goes there with a chance. It was a nice confidence booster for him at Gowran last time and he has travelled over really nicely. Magic Daze is in good form. She'll have to improve a lot on her official rating but hopefully she can.

Gavin Cromwell, trainer of Gabynako
You'd have to say the Arkle looks the most open of the novice chases at this year's festival and that's why we're rolling the dice by running here. If he's not put on his head early and can manage to hold his position, I think he'll see it out well. I know he has made one or two mistakes over his fences but he's actually a brilliant jumper and is quick through the air. I think these fences will suit him. At the start of the season, I thought I'd be going up in trip with him but, the way the Arkle has shaped up, I was happy to take a chance by running here.

Joe Tizzard, assistant to Colin Tizzard, trainer of War Lord
I think he's too big a price. We're going to struggle to turn around Sandown form with Edwardstone but there's no reason why he couldn't nick a place. He jumps well and, if they go a good gallop, he'll be doing his best work at the end.
Reporting by Lewis Porteous

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