'We'll find out just how good he is' - Continuous and Middle Earth clash in a high-class Hardwicke Stakes

Over the last ten years only Hurricane Lane has achieved a higher Racing Post Rating for winning the St Leger than the 121 that Continuous recorded last season, which was also 2lb higher than the ten-year RPR average. The high rating has since been proven to be warranted.

That's because Continuous went on to better his St Leger RPR by 1lb when beaten only three and a half lengths into fifth in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp in October and, with a peak figure of 122, he is the best in this race by 3lb. He could underperform and still win.

That's on paper, though, and the reality is a lot different because although Middle Earth is rated 5lb inferior to Continuous and finished 16 lengths behind him in the St Leger last season, he looked like a vastly improved performer at Newbury last month.

Middle Earth might have won by only a nose, but it was his seasonal reappearance and the form has worked out. The runner-up King Of Conquest has since landed a Listed race at Goodwood and the sixth Salt Bay was only narrowly beaten at that level at York last week. 

This will be the acid test for Middle Earth now that he has a rematch with his Group 1 conqueror, but he is a lot better than he showed when behind that rival at Doncaster and also has fitness on his side. Continuous may be rusty after 265 days out of action.

Desert Hero finished four places and a long way ahead of Middle Earth in the St Leger, but was still three-and-a-quarter lengths behind Continuous and hasn't improved on that since.

Desert Hero: last year's King George V winner is back at the royal meetingCredit: Alan Crowhurst

Unlike Middle Earth, who is a 10lb better horse than when competing at Doncaster last year on RPRs, Desert Hero has done no more than stand still and it's possible to argue that he has gone backwards if you take his latest effort, when behind Middle Earth at Newbury, literally.

That surely wasn't his true form and he had equalled his previous best when a close second in the Gordon Richards on his seasonal reappearance at Sandown over an inadequate mile and a quarter. He has a bit to prove, but this trip definitely suits him better and he may bounce back.
Analysis by Graeme Rodway

'We'll find out just how good he is' - Middle Earth primed for Hardwicke

Middle Earth bids to stamp his authority on the middle-distance Group-race division when he goes head-to-head with St Leger winner Continuous.

The John and Thady Gosden-trained colt was left trailing in Continuous' wake when finishing only seventh in the season's final Classic at Doncaster last September.

However, the highly progressive son of Roaring Lion was all at sea on the very soft ground that day, and connections are optimistic about his chances of giving Continuous a serious battle this time on the quick ground he will love.

David Redvers, racing manager to Qatar Racing, who own Middle Earth along with Ciaron Maher, said: "He's the horse we've all been looking forward to seeing most of all this week. Conditions and the track should suit him ideally. It's very exciting and we'll find out just how good he is on Saturday."

Middle Earth's only defeat in his last five runs was at Doncaster, and he produced a career-best performance when beating King Of Conquest by a nose in Newbury’s Group 3 Aston Park Stakes on his reappearance.

Middle Earth: aims to get revenge on Continuous in the HardwickeCredit: Alan Crowhurst

King Of Conquest has since franked the form with a cosy Goodwood success, and Redvers added: "Middle Earth's only poor run came in the St Leger. When he has had his conditions he has run superbly.

"Roaring Lion liked Ascot [where he won the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes in 2018] and Middle Earth looks like he is still improving. We think there could be plenty more to come from him. It’s a big day for the horse."

Thady Gosden, joint-trainer of Middle Earth, added: "He's been in good order at home since his comeback win at Newbury since when this has always been the plan. It's very competitive as you'd expect but he won over course and distance last year and is a top-of-the-ground performer."

Continuous 'coming along nicely' for Aidan O'Brien

With all the middle-distance talent he's had at his disposal, you would expect Aidan O'Brien to boast a fantastic record in this Group 2 contest. 

Four wins in the last 16 years may not rival Sir Michael Stoute, who has landed the Hardwicke an incredible 11 times, but it is still impressive.

Stoute isn't represented this year but O'Brien fields likely favourite Continuous, who is making his first appearance since signing off a superb three-year-old campaign with a fifth in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe behind Ace Impact.

The highlight of Continuous’s career to date is his commanding two-and-three-quarters-length success on testing ground in the St Leger, but more big days look likely in 2024.

Continuous: St Leger winner aims to give his trainer a fifth Hardwicke successCredit: John Grossick

He proved his ability to handle lightning-fast Ascot terrain when second to King Of Steel in the King Edward VII Stakes at this meeting 12 months ago prior to romping home by three and three-quarter lengths from Castle Way in York's Great Voltigeur Stakes, which was also staged on good to firm going.

O'Brien said: "We've been happy with him and he's just ready to start back now. The plan all along was for his first target to be the Hardwicke and we've stuck to that plan.

"He's been away from home a few times and he's coming along nicely. We feel there is more to come from him this season."

What they say

William Haggas, trainer of Candleford and Desert Hero
Candleford is fine. It's a stiff task for him with his rating of 110, but he won a Listed race at the Curragh last time. He has a bit to find, but is thoroughly reliable and will love the fast ground. Desert Hero ran poorly at Newbury. His record right-handed is better than his record left-handed and I am pinning my hopes on that as I can't understand why he ran so badly that day. He has run well at Ascot, Goodwood and Sandown.

Adrian Murray, trainer of Crypto Force and Elegant Man
They're both in good form and travelled over well. The rain arriving at the Curragh the last day didn't suit Elegant Man and this ground will suit him far better. Crypto Force ran very well at the Curragh and is improving with each run.

Adrian Murray: runs Crypto Force and Elegant Man in the HardwickeCredit: Patrick McCann

George Scott, trainer of Isle Of Jura
He had a fantastic season in Bahrain and I was really pleased to see him get his head in front at Goodwood; he took another step forward that day. I have been praying for weeks for fast ground at Royal Ascot and he will love the right-handed track. It's the first time he's been pitched against this calibre of opponent and it will be interesting to see how he stacks up against them. He is bred for this grade and I am sure he will make the breakthrough at this level at some stage this season; whether it is on Saturday we'll have to see. We're very pleased with him, and feel confident he will step up and prove himself comfortable at this level.
Reporting by Richard Birch

Read more Saturday previews:

2.30 Ascot: 'She looked a classy filly and her jockey really liked her' - key quotes and analysis for the Chesham

3.45 Ascot: can William Buick break new ground on Mill Stream or will Kinross make it third time lucky in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes?  

4.25 Ascot: 'He's always shown us plenty of pace' - can River Tiber reverse Irish 2,000 Guineas form with Haatem in Jersey Stakes?  

5.05 Ascot: 'We've saved him for this - I think he’ll run very well' - who fancies their chances in a wide-open Wokingham? 

5.40 Ascot: 'If he gets into a nice rhythm, he'll run a big race' - quotes and analysis for the Golden Gates Stakes 

6.15 Ascot: 'He's put up two good performances in defeat against Kyprios' - who will come out on top in this stamina-sapping contest? 

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