'We think he has a great chance' - who will triumph in the Surrey National?

The last four winners of the Surrey National all led or contested the pace. No race is so biased that one type of tactic will always triumph, but there is reason to think there are a few flames licking under the smoke here.

This race is unusual for a regional National in that there is a high concentration of fences late in the piece. At Lingfield, the third-last fence is only two and a half furlongs from the line. The three fences themselves come within the space of just over a furlong. If you want to make up ground at that point, you had better hope your horse pings them all. On top of that, the straight is gently downhill, which can help the leaders to keep going.

Many of the more interesting runners in this race are not prominent racers, which would be rare for a long-distance chase. It is felt that Animal might have won the Lincolnshire National last time had he been handier. Not Sure got a survival ride out the back when fourth in the Welsh National. 

The unexposed Regal Blue has tended to be ridden positively. Whether he will be here, with his stamina for the trip unknown, is moot. Although Jonjo O'Neill pulled a similar trick with Track And Trace in the recent North Yorkshire National, and that horse was ridden boldly up in trip.

One who will almost surely be up there is Dr Kananga. He made his reappearance in the Tommy Whittle last month, showing his usual zest before a lack of fitness seemed to tell. The last time this race was run, his trainer Ben Clarke won it with The Galloping Bear, so it is highly possible this race has been on their radar. Both horses have a similar way of going about things, which is all the more encouraging given this race's recent history.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

What they say

Ben Case, trainer of Fern Hill
He ran very well on his comeback to be third at Chepstow in a race that is working out reasonably well, and he's since had a wind op. He’s always shaped as if this sort of trip would suit and he’s a big horse, so top weight shouldn't worry him. He has a decent each-way chance.

Nick Scholfield, rider of Regal Blue
He’s run some nice races over lesser trips when he’s been staying on at the end, which suggests this trip will play to his strengths. If they get any overnight rain it will be to his advantage as he likes to get his toe in.

Chris Gordon, trainer of Blade Runner
He was the last to be pulled up in the Welsh National, which was run on terrible ground, and this surface should be better for him. He’s in great form at home and we're hopeful of a better show.

Tom Bellamy, rider of Mumbo Jumbo
He’s still a maiden, so a Surrey National would be a nice place to break his duck, but he’s consistent without winning. I’m sure he’ll be knocking on the door.

Kerry Lee, trainer of Not Sure
He ran a great race to be fourth in the Welsh National last time, so this trip won’t be a bother for him, and he’s down in grade. Hopefully, the meeting is on as we think he has a great chance.
Reporting by David Milnes

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