'We might see a different horse' - key quotes for tricky New Year's Day handicap

Sunday: 1.55 Cheltenham
Paddy Power New Year's Day Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) | 2m4½f | 5yo+ | ITV/RTV

In a normal season, the Paddy Power New Year's Day Handicap Chase would be the most winnable of the major handicap chases around 2m4f at Cheltenham.

That was the lesson from findings presented in these pages before the December Gold Cup on December 10, but the fact the December Gold Cup was lost may affect the trend this season.

There are likely two main reasons for this race being something of a poor relation. The first is midwinter ground: all but one of the eight runnings in the last decade (two were rained off) took place on soft or heavy.

Secondly, the most progressive horses from the Paddy Power and December Gold Cup will have gone up in the weights, and those emerging for a tilt at spring handicaps are generally still biding their time at the turn of the year.

Although the ground was reported as good, good to soft in places at the last update, the rain on Saturday seems likely to deliver typical ground. But the field of 17 looks to contain both the most interesting horses from the December Gold Cup and new faces, making the race more competitive rather than less.

According to the SP forecast published in the Racing Post on December 10, seven of the first ten in the betting for the December Gold Cup are in this race. The most significant extra runner is Midnight River, who had been ante-post favourite for the December Gold Cup but was not declared as the ground was deemed insufficiently soft.

Happygolucky and Shakem Up'Arry have both had form boosts this week. Happygolucky was behind just two horses in the Rehearsal on his reappearance: Into Overdrive, who won the Rowland Meyrick on Boxing Day, and L'Homme Presse, far from disgraced in the King George.

The following day, Tile Tapper ran a tremendous race to be second to Remastered at Kempton and the time before he had been comprehensively outpointed by the frustrating but talented Shakem Up'Arry.

Shakem Up'Arry: a winner at Exeter last timeCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Brave Seasca also warrants respect. He could not have won more easily at Aintree at the start of December and is unexposed around 2m4f after falling just short of Grade 1 class as a novice chaser around 2m. He will have to be virtually up to that class at his new trip off a revised mark of 155.

Behind them, interesting types from the December Gold Cup, such as Coconut Splash and War Lord (who may be better suited by the ground this time), bolster the race, as do new entrants like Demachine and even above-average outsiders, Sebastopol and Lostintranslation.

As punters, racing fans, or just people, we should enter 2023 with higher ambitions than getting an above-average running of the New Year's Day Handicap Chase. But we should gladly accept this first small win as something of a new year's treat.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

What they say

Kim Bailey, trainer of Happygolucky
He ran a very good race first time out at Newcastle and the form has worked out well. He's run well at Cheltenham before and I'm not terribly sure he gets three miles there, which is why we've dropped back in trip. The more rain we get the better.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Simply The Betts and Il Ridoto
Simply The Betts loves the track and was second last year. I still don't think he's the best handicapped horse in Britain as he runs so consistently but he's doing well and a bit of ease in the ground will help. Il Ridoto would definitely appreciate some ease in the ground and the track should suit him. It's a competitive race but they both have a chance.

Joe Tizzard, trainer of War Lord and Lostintranslation
I think the trip and ground will suit War Lord really well. He galloped through the line in the Haldon Gold Cup, so he should have a live each-way chance. Lostintranslation wants genuine good to soft ground and he's dropping to a mark where he should be capable.

Midnight River: third at Cheltenham last time outCredit: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)

Dan Skelton, trainer of Midnight River
I'm really happy with him and I think he'll be better on the New course than the other one. All the rain is definitely a positive for him.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Fantastic Lady
She beat Zambella at Market Rasen and the form has worked out well. She got the three miles well there, so should stay this trip well.

Gary Moore, trainer of Nassalam
He didn't like the ground there last time but stayed on well. If there's a bit more give in the ground we might see a different horse.

Ben Pauling, trainer of Shakem Up'Arry
He's in good order. The ground should be soft enough but he showed at Exeter he doesn't need it bottomless. He should do himself proud again.

David Pipe, trainer of Eden Du Houx
He’s got no weight and the more rain the better for him. If he can build on his win last time it might give him an each-way shout.

Evan Williams, trainer of Coconut Splash
He's a smasher and has plenty of good form in the book without winning. Looking at his form you'd think surely he can do it some day, and he's young enough to do it. A drop of rain would be welcome.
Reporting by James Stevens

Read more of Sunday's previews:

1.20 Cheltenham: 'I wouldn't swap him' - who is keen to take on Monmiral in a hot novice chase?

1.35 Musselburgh: 'I couldn't be happier with him' - will the Auld Reekie be won by the home team?

2.15 Tramore: 'We're delighted with him at home' - can Stattler see off a Gold Cup winner?

2.30 Cheltenham: Marie's Rock gifted 'handy allowance' on big-race return

3.05 Cheltenham: 'He looks overpriced at 10-1' - which trainer has high hopes at Cheltenham?

Fairyhouse: 'He should take to fences like a duck to water' - Mullins excited by Berlais

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