'We know he's better than that' - Aidan O'Brien hoping Diego Velazquez can bounce back to form in King Edward VII Stakes

The King Edward VII is often called Ascot's Derby. It is a title to reject because it does not stand up to the prefix, beloved of fans of the Derby itself, that 'There's only one'.

For every year when this race holds the key to autumn middle-distance prizes, there will be one where another race at Royal Ascot does better. That might be the Hampton Court, or even the King George V.

Last year was a good running of this race. The Champion Stakes winner beat the St Leger winner, with the Leger second further back in the field. The year before produced nothing better than Ottoman Fleet, who didn't stay.

What this race has in its favour is the numbers. A field of 14 is the highest this century and only the fifth time a double-digit field has assembled in the same period. Unusually, the draw bias, which over 1m4f at Ascot tends to be towards horses drawn higher, may come into play.

Under the bare figures of a large field, there is not so much obvious depth. The two who ran in the Derby finished 13th, and unseated leaving the stalls. The best Classic form comes from a French Guineas fourth and an Italian Derby second. On Derby trial runs, the pick came from a horse that was a well-beaten second in the Chester Vase.

But then the King Edward VII is as much about potential as achievement. Even King Of Steel sort of fits into that mould, having been a twice-raced 66-1 shot when he left the stalls in the Derby. The biggest clue that he was a good horse was that he had been campaigned like one, by a trainer who is usually more patient.

It is for that reason that you should consider if Voyage should be double-figure odds for this race. He was 28-1 for the Derby as a once-raced novice winner, and did nothing to put a cap on his ability at Epsom. His debut win has not got any weaker, either.

Given that many of these three-year-olds have shown most of their relevant experience this spring, fast-ground form is in short supply. The only big fixture of the season to take place on quick ground was Chester's May meeting, when Agenda chased home Hidden Law.

Although we will never know the winner's worth, Agenda beat the rest by a big margin and his pedigree points strongly to suiting these conditions. He is by Galileo and his dam won the Albany, as well as running her best race at three on quick ground.

You sense that if Ryan Moore had picked Agenda, he might be favourite. Yet Moore has never ridden this horse, while he has been on Diego Velazquez three times, including the Prix Du Jockey Club less than three weeks ago.

Even with Moore up, you get the impression this is plan B for Diego Velazquez. The King Edward VII is at its best when fought out by those playing a longer game.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

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Diego Velazquez heads four-strong Ballydoyle team

Diego Velazquez bids to follow in the footsteps of close relations Broome and Point Lonsdale by adding a Royal Ascot success to his CV.

The trio are out of Sweepstake, with Point Lonsdale landing the Chesham in 2021 and Broome winning the Hardwicke the following year.

Diego Velazquez, the mount of Ryan Moore, finished fourth in the French 2,000 Guineas at Longchamp on his return before a below-par eighth in the French Derby at Chantilly on heavy ground last time.

Aidan O'Brien: runs four in the King Edward VII StakesCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

O’Brien said: “Ryan was never happy with his position on him in the French Derby. He was trapped wide and it didn't go the way he'd hoped. We know he's better than that."

Ballydoyle’s four-strong team is completed by Chester Vase second Agenda (Dylan Browne McMonagle), all-the-way Gallinule winner Chief Little Rock (Wayne Lordan) and the visored Lingfield Derby trial fourth The Euphrates (Declan McDonogh).

O’Brien said: “Chief Little Rock wasn't stopping at the end of the Gallinule and seems to stay very well, so we've decided to step him up in trip. Agenda ran a nice race at Chester and has seemed in good form since. The Euphrates is a solid horse who ran well at Lingfield and seems well."

What they say

Nemone Routh, racing manager in France to the Aga Khan, owner of Calandagan
He’s talented but he’s never run in a race like this. I’m sure they will go a strong pace and that will suit him as he has a big, long stride. He should be a strong stayer as his dam was and he finishes his races off well.

Roger Varian, trainer of Defiance
We're inclined to draw a line through his run at Lingfield, although the form is working out very strongly, as I don't think it was his true showing. He's a lovely horse and if he can handle the fast ground he's very able to race for a podium finish.

Ed Walker, trainer of Harper’s Ferry
He could run a big race. He was potentially going to be our Derby horse until he refused to enter the stalls for the Dee Stakes at Chester. Although he's been slightly difficult, he's done very little wrong in his three races and he's very talented. His stalls test went fine and I hope we've ironed out some of his quirks.

Ed Walker: runs Harper's FerryCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

Ralph Beckett, trainer of Macduff
He wears first-time cheekpieces and hopefully can bounce back from the Derby. He got upset in the stalls that day and I think that did for him.

Oisin Murphy, rider of Royal Supremacy
He's worked very well since his run in Italy and was supplemented for this. His owner Michael Blencowe is a great sport and this horse can outrun his odds.

Richard Brown, racing adviser to Wathnan Racing, owners of Space Legend
He was clearly the best horse in the Cocked Hat, the way he finished was impressive. I don't know if he'll be streetwise enough but he has a big future.

Thady Gosden, joint-trainer of Theory Of Tides
He won well under a penalty last time. He's progressed since, although this is a significant step up in grade against relatively hardened mile-and-a-half three-year-olds. The ground will have dried significantly by this race, which is something he's not experienced.

Richard Hannon, trainer of Voyage
We’re in the dark as to how good he is after Epsom. This looks a very good renewal and he’ll need to improve again but he was extremely impressive on debut.
Reporting by Jack Haynes

Read the rest of our Royal Ascot previews:

2.30 Royal Ascot: 'She's well over-priced and will way outrun her odds' - can Fairy Godmother land a third Albany in a row for Ballydoyle?   

3.05 Royal Ascot: 'He could be open to a lot of improvement' - key trainer quotes and analysis for the Commonwealth Cup   

3.45 Royal Ascot: 'She'll need to have come on a bit for her Guineas run and I think she has' - trainer quotes for a red-hot Coronation Stakes   

4.25 Royal Ascot: Willie Mullins unveils latest Diamond in bid for more Royal Ascot glory in Duke of Edinburgh   

5.05 Royal Ascot: Can Indelible be another winning favourite in the Sandringham? Key analysis and quotes for the fillies' handicap   

6.15 Royal Ascot: 'He's favourite for a reason' - in-form Oisin Murphy eyeing more success in competitive handicap 

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