Trainer sees 'no negatives' for our expert's fancy in competitive handicap chase

Saturday: 1.50 Sandown
Unibet Horserace Betting Operator Of The Year Handicap Chase | 1m7½f | 5yo+ | RTV/ITV4

The mildly irritating idiom that you make your own luck – almost always uttered by people who have got lucky – does admittedly stand up to a degree in racing, particularly over fences.

However, running into Ibleo off 140, Il Rodoto off 131 or L'Homme Presse off 128, is nothing other than misfortune. Those respective fates are exactly what befell Paddy's Poem in this race last year, and Numitor and Gunsight Ridge on their most recent starts.

Paddy's Poem got his turn a couple of months later and is now 12lb higher than 12 months ago. The other two have just been nudged up for their excellent runs in defeat and remain notably interesting.

It is up for debate whether Gunsight Ridge deserves to be as dominant in the betting as the early market has it. He is both up in class and down in trip.

The latter looks the wrong way to go on pedigree and, given he has made a habit throughout his career of promising more than he delivers, his giving way after the last over 2m3f last time may not have been down to a lack of stamina.

The likeable Numitor tends to stride on and may get an uncontested lead unless Moonlighter, whom Tom Scudamore presumably had the choice to ride instead, is sent on as he was when making most over course and distance 11 months ago.

A good number of the rest will be egging on Moonlighter's new rider Harry Cobden. A contested pace can leave them walking up the hill at Sandown and some of these are the sort of two-milers who win mostly when their rivals have been softened up for them.

The likelihood is that will not happen. Moonlighter may have bigger targets in the spring, and if Numitor is given the run of things up front, it is hard to see many going past him. It might be his turn for some rebalancing.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

'He's got the form to run well'

Up The Straight is down in trip after leaving trainer Richard Rowe somewhat perplexed.

Slices of the eight-year-old's form ought to give him a cracking chance and this is a drop in grade from some classy company.

"To be honest, he sometimes confuses me with regard to his trip, so I'm very keen to try him on a stiff track over two miles with some give in the ground because I'm not sure which direction to go," said Rowe, whose challenger has a second and third on his CV to Nicky Henderson top-notchers, Chantry House and Shishkin.

"A couple of times I've seen him arrive into a race over two and a half miles and look dangerous, but he peters out.

"He's got the form to run well and, if they go hard, which I hope they will, I'd tell Niall [Houlihan] to be last to challenge because he should be staying this trip well enough."

What they say

Nick Williams, trainer of Moonlighter
He's a course-and-distance winner, so I'm hopeful, although he hasn't won for a while. That said, he didn't run badly at Cheltenham last time and is on a mark I think he can be effective off as long as there aren't too many improvers in this.

Jane Williams, trainer of Monsieur Lecoq
He doesn't really like heavy ground, but he would handle it. I don't think the race is as strong as it could be and I'm expecting him to be in the mix. I feel quite positive about him.

Heather Main, trainer of Numitor
I don't see any negatives. He loves his racing and this is a good race for him. He's fresh and well and the ground will be soft, but I just hope it's not tacky. He's gone on heavy ground, but we don't want it sticky. He's a strong, powerful horse anyway so should cope with it, while we're hoping we've not seen the best of him yet.

Olly Murphy, trainer Gunsight Ridge
I don't think he stayed the last time at Exeter when he bumped into a very progressive horse from the yard of Venetia Williams. The drop back in trip will hopefully help him and I expect he'll go very close with a clear round.
Reporting by James Burn

Saturday's race previews:

2.25 Sandown: 'I hope it wasn't a flash in the pan' – Nicky Henderson on Constitution Hill

2.40 Wincanton: 'Absolute star' Getalead gunning for fourth win for up-and-coming yard

3.00 Sandown: 'This has been on the radar for a long time' – golden oldies take centre stage

3.15 Wincanton: former Grade 1 winner Slate House returns to chasing off a career-low mark

3.35 Sandown: which handicap hurdler does the trainer believe to be 'very well handicapped'?

Over 50% off Racing Post Members' Club!Members' Club is the only subscription racing fans and punters need in order to stay informed and make smarter betting decisions. Features include early access to the Racing Post digital newspaper, exclusive news and interviews, premium tips and form study tools to assist with betting. Select 'Get Ultimate Monthly' and enter code TRYME to get your first month for just £14.99* – that's better than half price!

Subscribe now

If you decide that Members' Club is not for you, then you can cancel at anytime by contacting us.

*Members' Club Ultimate Monthly first month will be charged at £14.99, renews at full price thereafter