This is not a stellar Paddy Power Gold Cup - and these two rate by far the most likeliest winners

Whether you fancy him or not, any analysis of this year's Paddy Power Gold Gold Cup has to start with topweight Protektorat. 

The Ryanair winner's presence in this race, off a mark of 167, is the main reason the field is 15 rather than 17. The two five-day confirmations who went undeclared would have been miles out of the weights. In a race without Protektorat, they would have been in the handicap proper, or near as damn it.

The graphic shows how Protektorat sits among the highest-rated runners in the race this century. Only 11 horses have run in the race off a BHA mark of 160 or higher, and he is a clear second in the list behind Poquelin.