The rules have changed: here's how to pick a modern Grand National winner

My dad had a novel approach to cracking the Grand National puzzle, at least it sounded novel when he first told me in about 2003. "It's just another handicap chase now," he would lament, his voice dropping as much as the landing side of Becher's Brook used to. The evidence of the last 20 years shows he was wrong at the time. Or maybe he was just ahead of the curve.

It is not enough that the Grand National is the hardest race of the year. Among British and Irish races it has the biggest field, the longest trip, the most unfamiliar fences and, these days, the classiest field of any handicap. The rules are changing all the time, both literally and figuratively.

This century there have been two new factors which have seriously altered the approach that punters ought to take to the race. The first is the alterations to the fences, of course. The other is the much higher quality of horse you get now.