The Lowther poser: is Queen Mary winner Dramatised a certainty or opposable?

Sky Bet Lowther Stakes (Group 2) | 2yo | 6f | ITV/RTV

What chance do we mere mortals have when a couple of the greatest minds around come to completely contradictory conclusions?

The Lowther Stakes is all about hot favourite Dramatised: is the Queen Mary winner a certainty or one to oppose at such short odds?

Racing Post betting editor Keith Melrose sees no dangers and told readers of a Q&A earlier this week: "Save yourself half an hour spent trying to get Dramatised beat."

Yet in the same feature leading tipster Paul Kealy revealed he was keen to take her on and said: "She might well turn out to be the best juvenile filly around, but the form of the Queen Mary has been let down enough times to make you suspicious."

The facts are that Dramatised has looked hugely promising in her two starts, bolting up by four lengths on her debut at Newmarket, then always looking the winner in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot, winning comfortably without her jockey having to worry about the whip he dropped.

It's true that none of those she beat has done anything since to suggest they were a strong bunch by Group 2 standard.

Yet it's equally true she looked to win with plenty to spare and is open to plenty of improvement on bare form, which gives her 6lb and more in hand of this field judged on Racing Post Ratings – and promises to be just as good on this step up to 6f.

To judge if she is worth a bet at around even money, you need to assess whether the chance of something emerging to improve past her is better or worse than 50-50.

The most likely candidate is Mawj, whose smart effort in landing the Duchess of Cambridge Stakes at Newmarket was overshadowed by debate over whether she should have been demoted for interfering with subsequent Princess Margaret Stakes winner Lezoo.

She lacks some of the speed of Dramatised and her best hope of closing the gap on the favourite may lie with this being a real test of stamina.

Mawj (Ray Dawson) wins the Duchess Of Cambridge StakesCredit: Edward Whitaker

Lady Hollywood has shown plenty of pace in rattling up a 5f hat-trick and is certainly improving, although she will need to be in much the best field she has faced.

Dramatised sceptics could also consider the much longer odds about Queen Me, whose dam Queen Kindly won this for owner-breeder Jaber Abdullah six years ago.

She was asked to do no more than necessary to win on her debut at Haydock, where she may have found the softish surface less than ideal, and could find plenty of improvement.

Burke confident trip won't be a problem for Dramatised

What could be better for a Yorkshire owner-breeder than to win the feature two-year-old fillies' race at the county's biggest meeting of the year?

When Steve Parkin won the Lowther Stakes in 2019 it was with a juvenile he had bought in the sales ring, the smart Living In The Past.

It would mean an awful lot more were he to repeat the feat with a filly he bred himself, and Dramatised has every chance of flying the flag for his Branton Court Stud this afternoon.

She was an impressive winner on her debut at Newmarket in the spring and looked decidedly smart when following up in the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot.

The Prix Morny had been an alternative race but Karl Burke, who also trained Living In The Past, said: "With the travel and the problems that entails at the moment with Brexit and everything else, we decided against it – and Yorkshire means a lot to the owner.

"She's got to prove she gets the trip, but the dam stayed a mile and Showcasing [sire] gets milers, so I don't think it will be a problem.

"Dramatised is a very high-class filly and on paper she's the one they've all got to beat. Some of these fillies may have improved but they'll have to to beat her."

Parkin also heads the Bronte Collection syndicate which owns Maria Branwell, whose trainer David O'Meara said: "She ran an unusually flat race at Newbury last time and she seemed to boil over at the start, which may have been down to the hot temperatures. Hopefully, she'll be able to bounce back."

What they say

Saeed bin Suroor, trainer of Mawj
Mawj came out of her last run well and heads to York in good form. She has been going nicely at home and we are hoping for another decent result.

Andrea Atzeni, rider of Glenlaurel
She won well first time at Thirsk but ran her race back to front at Ascot last time where she was a bit keen in the early stages. She should be suited by the easy six furlongs.

Alice Haynes, trainer of Lady Hollywood
She's definitely going the right way. She deserves to be there, the form has worked out well. It was a stiff enough five furlongs at Naas last time, she'll be given a patient ride and we'll see if she can be there at the end.

David Marane, trainer of Lady Tilbury
We were delighted with how she settled last time and, looking at the figures, only the winner was faster than her through the final three furlongs. I think stepping up to six furlongs will suit her and I feel she's improved. We're under no illusions about the task at hand but if she was in the first four or five we'd be pleased.

Kieran Cotter, trainer of Matilda Picotte
This has been the plan for the last three or four months. We think a flat six furlongs at York will suit her really well. She's been running against the best in Ireland. It's a competitive race but we wouldn't swap her for anything.

Richard Spencer, trainer of Sweet Harmony
She ran a nice debut at Ascot and followed that up with a win at Yarmouth. We hold her in high regard. I expect her to run well at a big price.

Karl Burke, trainer of Swingalong
She was very impressive at Ripon, she had them all beaten after two furlongs. This is a huge step up in class but she'll run a big race.

Thursday's previews:

3.00 York: 'He's due a big one' - trainers on their runners in this £125,000 handicap

3.35 York: Yorkshire Oaks: 'It's all systems go' - Alpinista chases first domestic Group 1

4.10 York: Can Golden Lyra continue recent sea of yellow success in the Galtres?

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