'The ground will be in his favour and I think he'll take a fair bit of stopping' - insight and key quotes for the Plate

If you are backing a horse for the Plate at single-figure odds at the overnight stage, the likelihood is it will be a novice. Crebilly tops the betting, fresh from a novice win at Exeter, with Theatre Man next in the betting and handicap debutant Saint Felicien third.

You probably will not worry about chancing a novice. Plenty have won the race in recent years, after all. But this might be a race where the trend has already been absorbed into the race's identity.

There has been an increase in novices in the race since 2021. Unsurprisingly, that was when the novice handicap chase was lost from the festival programme. Nine went in 2021, six in the two years that followed and seven have been declared this time.

The recent 21 have yielded one winner, The Shunter in 2021. The overall record in the last decade is four winners from 50 runners – a healthy return in a big-field handicap.

The graphic lays this out in more detail. From 50 runners, where all horses have an equal chance, you would have expected 2.35 winners. Once starting prices are taken into account, the market suggests novices ought to have produced 4.4 winners. The same pattern repeats for all placed horses. Novices outperform the average, but they do not beat the market.

That makes sense, as unexposed horses have a tendency to be slightly overbet. Crebilly and Theatre Man are as unexposed as it is possible to be, with three chase runs each behind them. Theatre Man advertised his claims when second to Turners-bound Ginny's Destiny here on Trials day. Crebilly won at Exeter last time when it looked like the main aim of his run was to gain more experience.

Also consider that this year many of the course-and-distance regulars who contest this race are absent. Fugitif and Ga Law are both chancing their arm in the Ryanair. That leaves Il Ridoto, whose form figures at Cheltenham this season are 323.

The combination of Freddie Gingell's 5lb claim and soft conditions, which often allow prominent racers to stay ahead, brings Il Ridoto into the reckoning. However, with so many progressive horses in this year's Plate he may be of most use to your Placepot perm.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

Pauling aiming to shake 'em up

After riding at Sedgefield and bagging a winner at Huntingdon on the first two days of the festival, Ben Jones takes his first ride of the week at Cheltenham on Shakem Up'Arry, who is bidding to go two places better than last year in this premier handicap.

Part-owner Harry Redknapp is sure to make plenty of noise if the ten-year-old can improve on his five-and-a-quarter-length third to Seddon 12 months ago at big odds of 16-1.

Shakem Up'Arry looks sure to go off at much shorter odds this time after his Grade 3 handicap chase win over course and distance on New Year's Day.

Trainer Ben Pauling said: "He ran very well in it last year and I think he's better this year. The ground will be in his favour and I think he'll take a fair bit of stopping in a race that will suit him down to the ground.

He added: "The team are in good order and they've been aimed at their particular races, so if I don't believe now I never will."

What they say

Gordon Elliott, trainer of Embittered, Saint Felicien, Mars Harper and Riaan
Jack [Kennedy] has gone for Saint Felicien and I'd like to think we haven't seen the best of him over fences yet. There should be more to come and he's a classy horse. Riaan jumps well and isn't without a chance. Embittered and Mars Harper will have to step up to be involved at the business end.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Il Ridoto
He loves it at Cheltenham and hated Kempton last time. He’s handicapped to the hilt by the looks of it and he doesn’t win very often, but he tries hard and Freddie [Gingell] claims off him, so that’s going to be a help.

Jonjo O'Neill, trainer of Crebilly
He won a three-runner race at Exeter last time, so a 21-runner contest will be a bit different. If he gets some luck in running there's no reason he can't go well and we've been very happy with him at home.

Harry Fry, trainer of In Excelsis Deo
He's been running over two miles but we've been keen to try him back over further. He was unfortunate to part ways at the last when holding every chance at Sandown last time and I'm looking forward to seeing how he gets on over this trip.

Richard Bandey, trainer of Theatre Man
He doesn't mind some cut in the ground but whether there is too much we'll have to see. He's been running consistently well all season and hopefully he can be in the mix again.

Venetia Williams, trainer of Frero Banbou
He's run well at Cheltenham a number of times without winning. This will be a stronger race than the two he has run in at the track this season but hopefully he'll be competitive.

Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Torn And Frayed
He acts well on the course and the more the ground dries, the better because he prefers drier ground without a doubt. He's come down the handicap quite a bit now.
Reporting by David Milnes

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