'The Goat looks the one to beat' - is Andrew Balding's Glorious Goodwood winner opposable in Mallard?

The rain to hit Doncaster fuelled an early week gamble on The Goat in the Mallard Handicap and the field has carved up significantly to further encourage his ante-post backers. So impressive was the son of Cracksman in his 12-length soft-ground strike at Glorious Goodwood two starts back that he will likely always command heavy support when the heavens open.

Testing conditions were important to The Goat's sire and he has evidently inherited that trait. His recent sixth in the Melrose, arguably the year's leading staying handicap confined to three-year-olds, came on ground that was too quick and time may tell if he had an impossible task running off level weights with Middle Earth.

The Melrose winner contests the St Leger on Saturday and so does runner-up Denmark, while The Goat pitches up in a handicap off the same mark of 93 in receipt of 10lb in weight for age from every rival. Everything is in his favour, so where are the dangers?

It is worth forgiving any horse a poor run on fast ground at York and Real Dream failed to live up to his 15-2 SP when 19th in the Ebor. Real Dream might have paid the price for racing too wide for the first portion of the race and getting back on slower ground should suit this son of Lope De Vega, who is out of the mud-loving Group 1-winning mare Laganore. He remains unexposed and is likely capable of better, but carrying 10st 2lb in these conditions is a daunting task. 

Rhythmic Intent: winner of this race in 2021 for Stuart WilliamsCredit: Hugh Routledge

Bague D'Or caught the eye with a staying-on second over a mile and a half at York last month on his stable debut for James Ferguson, returning from a 391-day absence, and is by a sire in Belardo who relished soft ground. However, this five-year-old's profile suggests a faster surface is preferable. 

Exposed pair Legendary Day and Rhythmic Intent are the only soft-ground winners in this potentially stamina-sapping contest aside from The Goat.
Analysis by Robbie Wilders

What they say

Bruce Raymond, racing manager to Saeed Suhail, owner of Real Dream
He stays well and hopefully goes there with a good chance. We're not sure what went wrong in the Ebor but he had been progressive before then and everyone has been happy with him since York.

Heather Main, trainer of Island Brave
I'd like the ground to dry out for him. He's a big unit but I hope he's ready for this return and he's in great form.

Ian Williams, trainer of Oneforthegutter
He's very capable on his day and not had things go his way on a couple of occasions recently. He's fairly well handicapped and the step up in trip could eke out some improvement. I'd like the ground to dry out a little as good ground is probably ideal.

Ed Bethell, trainer of Quantum Leap
I don't think he stayed two miles at Nottingham last time. He travelled well through the race but his effort petered out in the final furlong or so. The drop back to this trip and cut in the ground are in his favour.

Adrian Keatley, trainer of Legendary Day
He ran an excellent race at York last time. The big, galloping track at Doncaster should suit him and Mark Winn takes 3lb off to give him every chance. He's been knocking on the door in these handicaps and he's versatile regarding ground, but The Goat looks the one to beat.

Andrew Balding, trainer of The Goat
He had to skip Haydock on Saturday because they didn't get the rain and this was the obvious alternative. The ease in the ground should suit him and hopefully he'll run well.
Reporting by Jack Haynes

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