The British banker? Shishkin 'in very good shape' as he bids for Cheltenham redemption

The debate about Shishkin in the Ryanair had started while Allaho was still odds-on for this year's running. It can be roughly traced back to the moment Johnny Dineen, speaking on the Racing Post's Upping The Ante show in November, announced that he could "never again" back a horse that had blown up like Shishkin had in last year's Champion Chase.

"If a horse does that once, you're never sure they won't do it again," said Dineen. Shishkin added another poor run to his record in the Tingle Creek, but then he bucked the trend of so many seemingly fading forces when winning the Ascot Chase and looking every inch the horse he had a year previously.

Dineen speaks as a man who bets to professional stakes, both as a punter and bookmaker. From that perspective his position is wholly understandable: an unreliable employee is a headache for any manager, no matter their competencies when they bother to turn up. Everyday punters have more room to wonder whether a shade of odds-on about Shishkin in this field might actually be the outstanding price of the week.

It might be a small exaggeration to suggest, as Racing Post tipster Paul Kealy has, that the Shishkin we saw at Ascot should be the same sort of price Constitution Hill was for Tuesday's Champion Hurdle. Yet look at the field in front of him and even those from the Dineen school may start to see the appeal of 4-5.

Second-favourite Blue Lord has made a career of bullying small fields around two miles. Janidil was second last year but jockey Mark Walsh would have been odds against to be able to read what was written on the backside of winning rider Paul Townend's breeches when he struck on Allaho. Envoi Allen and Chacun Pour Soi are big names, but both seemingly on the downgrade.

Each-way players should be looking towards Fury Road and French Dynamite. The first named missed Cheltenham last year, but split Ahoy Senor and L'Homme Presse at Aintree and has reached the frame in the Savills and Irish Gold Cup this season. On each of those runs he has travelled powerfully and is interesting back in trip, but probably no champion.

Similar comments apply to French Dynamite, who was the moral winner of the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November and has since developed into a Grade 1 prospect. He, too, seemed to struggle to see things out in the Savills (looked likely to beat Fury Road jumping the last) and was virtually brought to a standstill at the last when second to Fakir D'Oudairies last time.

That such horses are being considered for each-way bets and forecasts tells us how far ahead of them the Shishkin we saw at Ascot would be. An Allaho-like winning margin would be a real possibility. Why he might not show that form is not clear, unless you take the firm-but-pragmatic Dineen line.

He will not bounce in the classic sense, as there were only 11 weeks between the Tingle Creek and Ascot Chase. Nicky Henderson also does better than average with horses he runs at that Ascot meeting and then takes to Cheltenham, and his Riverside Theatre did the Ascot Chase-Ryanair double in 2012. 

However, that was the plan with Riverside Theatre, while Shishkin's season has been reshaped on the fly and Henderson is at his best when getting the room to plot horses' campaigns meticulously. If there is a blip coming then that is its most likely root.

But it's not all that likely, is it? While I am not backing Shishkin myself, the only way I can see around him is a forecast, an each-way bet (both involving French Dynamite) or a wing and a prayer. Sorry, Johnny.

'Shishkin in great shape'

Nicky Henderson has previous when it comes to winning three different festival races with a horse and Shishkin would join that list if he is successful.

Henderson won the 2011 Albert Bartlett with Bobs Worth, who returned for what was the RSA the following year before claiming the Gold Cup 12 months later.

In 2016, Altior won the Supreme and went on to win an Arkle and two Champion Chases and Shishkin has the first two of those prizes on his CV. However, he flopped in last year's Champion Chase after which a rare bone condition was diagnosed.

He returned with a respectable third in the Tingle Creek, but Henderson was convinced the son of Sholokhov, who runs in the familiar canary and black colours of Marie Donnelly, needed further.

He also underwent a breathing procedure and roared back to form in the 2m5f Ascot Chase, coming a commanding 16 lengths clear of his rivals.

Shishkin: back to form at Ascot last timeCredit: Edward Whitaker

"He's in very good order," the Lambourn trainer said. "We took him to Kempton for a gallop last week and he had a nice time around there, working very well. He is in great shape. He had a wind operation before Ascot, where he was stepping up in trip. I can't say which helped more, but I suspect it was going up in trip. He was impressive that day in any case."

Henderson has won the Ryanair with Fondmort and Riverside Theatre.

"We all know Shishkin has been good around Cheltenham as he's won a Supreme and Arkle," he added. "Something went badly wrong in the Champion Chase last year, but that was nothing to do with the track and we hope all those problems are behind him."

Will longer trip do the trick for Blue Lord?

Blue Lord's slick display in the Grade 1 2m1f Paddy's Rewards Club Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas may have led many to think he would be a Champion Chase player, but he was firmly put in his place by stablemate Gentleman De Mee in the track's Dublin Chase last time.

He steps back up in trip here, but won the Clonmel Oil Chase over 2m4½f in November and rarely disappoints, winning six of his eight starts over fences.

Willie Mullins trains Blue Lord and has won five of the last seven Ryanairs.

Blue Lord: perhaps a shade disappointing last timeCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

Paul Townend has partnered two of those winners – Min and Allaho – and said: "He steps up in trip from his big performance at Leopardstown over Christmas. He went on to finish second to Gentleman De Mee at the Dublin Racing Festival, which was a bit disappointing, but he's won over a similar trip to this at Clonmel and I think he will settle. Shishkin looked back to his brilliant best the last day and he will be hard to beat, but I do think we can give him a race."

Mullins, without the absent Allaho who would have been seeking a hat-trick, also runs Chacun Pour Soi and Janidil.

What they say

Henry de Bromhead, trainer of Envoi Allen
He seems in great form. Obviously he didn't turn up at all at Kempton, but his performance from his Down Royal run would have him bang there so we are looking forward to it. The better the ground, the better for him with his breathing, but there was a good cut in it at Down Royal too so hopefully it will be no worse than that here.

Mouse Morris: French Dynamite represents himCredit: Caroline Norris (racingpost.com/photos)

Mouse Morris, trainer of French Dynamite
It was a good run at Thurles, but he needs to step up a bit on that. He ran well around here back in November but would want faster ground.

Gordon Elliott, trainer of Fury Road
He's done well this season and has been very consistent. He was in the process of giving Galopin Des Champs a mighty fright in the Irish Gold Cup before he got the last all wrong. Shishkin is going to be a tough nut for us all to crack, but I think he's got a decent each-way shout.

Jamie Snowden, trainer of Ga Law
It was the sensible decision to go for this and not the Gold Cup and sensible decisions tend to be the correct ones. He's absolutely fine now and is over the cuts he got when falling at Doncaster in January. They meant a race at Kelso at the start of the month came a week too soon, but we're spot on now. We're taking on French Dynamite again, having beaten him on similar terms in the Paddy Power Gold Cup and, with Shishkin also there, it's a very good race, but there's plenty of prize-money on offer and it would be wonderful if he could creep into a place. He should be fine on the ground.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Hitman
He always runs a solid race but I'd say this is one of the best races he's run in. He'll have an outside chance, though, and we hope the cheekpieces might wake him up a bit.

Thursday previews:

1.30 Cheltenham: Can Mighty Potter live up to the hype for Gordon Elliott in red-hot Turners?   

2.10 Cheltenham: 'I'll be very disappointed if he's not in the first four' - analysis and quotes for the Pertemps Final   

3.30 Cheltenham: 'You'd have to be delighted with everything he's done' - top trainers on a star-studded Stayers' Hurdle   

4.10 Cheltenham: 'His lack of experience is a worry' - can Emmet Mullins and JP McManus hotpot justify favouritism?   

4.50 Cheltenham: 'We've taken the easier option' - can the classy Luccia maintain her unbeaten record?   

5.30 Cheltenham: 'I've had this race in mind for a while' - key quotes and analysis for the Kim Muir   

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