'On his hurdles form he'd be a strong favourite' - If The Cap Fits excites Fry

1.50 Kempton
Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices' Chase (Grade 1) | 3m | 4yo+ | ITV/ RTV

Balancing hurdles merit with early chasing form is especially difficult over longer trips. This is because you are more likely to find three-milers to whom the old adage involving 'hurdles' and 'bonus' genuinely applies. It is already crystal clear that Shan Blue matches the description.

A useful hurdler who nonetheless found Graded novices a bit too hot, Shan Blue could hardly have been more impressive in winning both starts over fences so far. Both were Class 4s at Wetherby but the second victory, at the Charlie Hall meeting, is underpinned to the point that his Grade 1 credentials are hard to doubt.

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That race was not strongly run. Shan Blue finished at 110 per cent of his overall race speed, and in doing so he put 16 lengths and more into three useful rivals. That much proves his speed, but he could not have been so impressive without a breathtaking display of jumping.

The fences were less attacked than dismissed as he gave 13lb and a sound beating to Snow Leopardess. She won a handicap on the Betfair Chase card off 126 next time and is among the favourites for the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby, 15 minutes after the Kauto Star.

The pair immediately behind Shan Blue in the early betting rely at least partly on hurdles form. If The Cap Fits won the Liverpool Hurdle in 2019, but has come late to fences and his defeat of Fiddlerontheroof on his chasing debut is probably not as impressive as it might have seemed at the time.

The Big Breakaway is an imposing sort who was expected to make Shan Blue-like strides on his smart hurdles form after switching to fences. He has looked proficient, but slow.

There have been better signs about Enrilo. He was just caught by The Mighty Don on his chasing debut and won comfortably at Exeter last time, impressing with his jumping as any aspiring top novice must over that course's soft fences. While he is not as likely a winner of this race as Shan Blue, a 12lb difference on BHA ratings is an aberration. Racing Post Ratings have it as 7lb, which seems more accurate.

Plenty of these novices have shown a tendency to press on. Among them is Golan Fortune, who was given an aggressive ride at Ludlow last time and responded well to it, his jumping improving as the race wore on. There is every reason to think he will be as good over fences as hurdles on that basis and, while it does not exactly make him a likely player, nor would it be a major shock if this likeable type is still there turning in.
Keith Melrose, betting editor

Tizzard eyeing fourth Kauto with Breakaway

The sky-high regard in which The Big Breakaway is held will be thoroughly put to the test in this red-hot Grade 1, which Colin Tizzard is looking to win for a fourth time.

The five-year-old put in a chasing debut at Cheltenham which left connections describing him as so special he made them tingle, but last time he did not fire at all, suffering a shock defeat at Exeter. Now in top form at home, connections expect a much better showing.

The Big Breakaway: impressed on chasing debut at CheltenhamCredit: Edward Whitaker

This race gave Tizzard a Grade 1 breakthrough in 2007, and the team hope The Big Breakaway will become yet another star three-mile chaser for the stable.

Joe Tizzard, assistant trainer to his father Colin, said: "It's a proper Grade 1 and we're really excited about running him.

"Last time we dropped back in trip and it backfired on us, but he didn't lose a lot in defeat. A strongly run race and three miles around Kempton will suit him."

What they say

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Enrilo
I've always liked him and I've purposely kept him fresh for this race after his two runs, where he finished second and then won. I rate him a lot so hopefully he'll run really well. It's a good race but he's right in the mix.

Phil Middleton, trainer of Golan Fortune
I don't think he's a forlorn hope. The ratings suggest he hasn't got much chance but he's come out of his last run brilliantly and he'll like the ground. I'm quite excited about the race.

Harry Fry, trainer of If The Cap Fits
We've deliberately kept him off since the beginning of November with this target in mind. The experience of jumping at Sandown will stand him in good stead and we've put the cheekpieces back on. On his hurdles form he'd be a strong favourite, so we're looking forward to taking our chance.

Philip Hobbs, trainer of Kalooki
It's a very competitive race but we think three miles will probably suit him better than the trips we've tried him over so far. We're hoping he has a decent chance.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Shan Blue
He was very impressive stepping up to three miles at Wetherby last time and we've always had this race in mind for him. We've been very happy with him at home of late and there will be no excuses.

Read our Boxing Day previews . . .

Members' Club: regal King George has what it takes to unite racing fans of every stripe

3.00 Kempton: key pointers and quotes for the King George VI Chase

Members' Club: high-class novices set to illuminate Boxing Day cards

Members' Club: reasons to believe Cyrname can reverse Clan form – expert King George analysis

2.25 Kempton: 'It will take something remarkable for Epatante to get beat in Christmas Hurdle'

Members' Club: 'It's an open race but Cyrname is in top form' – Harry Cobden joins the Saturday Jury

2.05 Wetherby: A weak Rowland Meyrick? Don't believe it, there is plenty to learn

1.05 Leopardstown: Is Zanahiyr another star? Gordon Elliott set to unleash Triumph favourite

2.15 Leopardstown: Stars on show as Darver faces Felix in cracking Racing Post Novice Chase

2.35 Limerick: No Leopardstown for Townend as he eyes Grade 1 with Asterion Forlonge

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