Superstar mare Lossiemouth long odds-on for a fourth Grade 1 before possible tilt at 2025 Champion Hurdle
The best jumps mare in training looks set for a lap of honour as Lossiemouth is no bigger than 2-7 to bring the curtain down on a flawless campaign.
There is, of course, a lingering feeling of what might have been had she run in the Champion Hurdle after she proved herself to be head and shoulders above her own sex in the Mares' Hurdle at Cheltenham.
She needed only to be nursed home by Paul Townend that day and was handed a Racing Post Rating of 156 for the emphatic victory. Add the 7lb mares' allowance she would have received in the Champion Hurdle to that and you get a figure of 163. State Man ran to an RPR of 160. It makes you wonder.
Connections seem to think 2025 is the right time for her to take in the Champion Hurdle, so for now she remains against her own sex and it is hard to envisage anything other than a straightforward success.
She has already beaten this entire field at Cheltenham – Telmesomethinggiril was second, Hispanic Moon third, Gala Marceau sixth and Ashroe Diamond was pulled up. Trying to make a case for any of those to reverse that form is an arduous task.
The end-of-season fear was brushed aside last year too. Lossiemouth had won the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham and arrived here to win the Grade 1 juvenile hurdle less than six weeks later. She has had even more time to recover from her festival exertions this year.
The most competitive race looks for second and perhaps stablemate Ashroe Diamond might be the one to follow Lossiemouth home.
She was a big drifter ahead of the Mares' Hurdle at Cheltenham. Having been 9-2 a few days before the race, she drifted out to 15-2 (and much bigger on the exchanges) and ran with the choke out for much of the race. She pulled her way to the front and then looked as though she didn't want to be there.
Expect Patrick Mullins to be more patient this time and a repeat of her Grade 2 success at Doncaster in January would give her a fighting chance of sealing the runner-up spot.
Telmesomethinggirl, the 2021 winner of the mares' novice hurdle at Cheltenham, bounced back to form to take second behind Lossiemouth at this year's festival and she has an identical rating to Ashroe Diamond of 144.
Gala Marceau hasn't progressed from four to five and has it all to do, while Hispanic Moon is improving but needs to take another leap forward to get closest to Lossiemouth.
Marie's Rock was the last mare to do the Cheltenham-Punchestown double in 2022, while Benie Des Dieux (2018) and Apple's Jade (2017) have also accomplished the feat in the last decade.
'With average luck, she should win'
We have been reminded this week that there is no certainty in this game, especially at this end-of-season carnival, as Galopin Des Champs and Gaelic Warrior have both been beaten at skimpy odds.
Defeat for Lossiemouth would arguably be the biggest surprise of all, though, and Paul Townend feels she is a cut above her rivals.
Townend said: "Lossiemouth was obviously so impressive at Cheltenham where she beat Telmesomthinggirl. We have seen Galopin Des Champs and Gaelic Warrior beaten this week, so nothing is a sure thing, but she looks the best of these."
Writing in his Ladbrokes blog, he added: "On ratings and what she has done on the track, she is well ahead of everything else. Her form is super, so I am really looking forward to riding her. With average luck, she should win."
What they say
Patrick Mullins, rider of Ashroe Diamond
I'm really looking forward to getting back on Ashroe Diamond. She was obviously well below par at Cheltenham, where possibly the change in tactics backfired. But she seems to be in great form at home and I think we can give Lossiemouth a scare this time.
Rachael Blackmore, rider of Telmesomethinggirl
It’s going to be a tough task to turn things around with Lossiemouth, but we’ll give it a try. Telmesomethinggirl is in great form coming into this and hopefully she’ll run another solid race.
Danny Mullins, rider of Gala Marceau
She had a great comeback at Doncaster but has obviously disappointed since. She looks to be in great nick at home and she's working really well, so hopefully she can bring her homework to the track this time.
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