Lonsdale Cup: who is the biggest threat to Trueshan with Stradivarius out?

Friday: 2.25 York
Weatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup Stakes (Group 2) | 2m½f | 3yo+ | ITV/RTV

With Stradivarius a non-runner, the race appears to revolve around Trueshan.

He is the highest-rated stayer since Yeats on Racing Post Ratings, with his Northumberland Plate victory on the all-weather at Newcastle good enough for a figure of 126. He wasn’t able to replicate that form behind Stradivarius last time, however.

That was in an epic race for the Goodwood Cup in which Kyprios beat Stradivarius by a neck and Trueshan was a further length and a quarter behind. According to RPRs, Trueshan was 8lb below his best that day, so what are the chances he can return to peak form here?

That might depend on how much rain arrives because all of Trueshan’s best turf form has come with cut in the ground and he now looks more dependent on that than ever.

Tashkhan, fifth in the Goodwood Cup, and Quickthorn are two others who have recorded their best efforts with soft in the going description. Quickthorn looked better than ever when landing a Group 2 at Longchamp last time on what was officially described as good to soft – although the ground appeared to be riding much quicker than that on the day – but is still 10lb behind Trueshan.

Maybe the biggest threat to the big two is Coltrane, who was improving rapidly before having his progress halted behind Kyprios, Stradivarius and Trueshan at Goodwood. His fourth in that Group 1 was enough for an RPR of only 113, 2lb below his best. He has to bounce back.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

Weather watch

Stradivarius is out of action and the race isn't a forgone conclusion for Trueshan either, with his trainer Alan King to wait until the first race has been completed before deciding whether to run the two-time Group 1 winner on unfavourable good, good to firm ground.

King had said on Thursday that Trueshan would need substantial overnight rain to arrive to guarantee his run – which did not happen – but on Friday morning and after the withdrawal of Stradivarius, he said: "It's unfortunate they had no rain overnight but we are going to make a decision after the first race today. We'll just see what happens."

What they say

Hughie Morrison, trainer of Quickthorn
We're taking on one of the national heroes of racing and I suspect the conditions will suit the national hero more than us, but we're going there in a positive mindset and we're going there to try to win, not follow round Stradivarius and Trueshan.

Brian Ellison, trainer of Tashkhan
He's in great form and I'm really happy with him. Any rain that comes would be very much appreciated. He looks a million dollars and I think he'll give everybody a race.

Gemma Tutty, trainer of Mostly Cloudy
We were planning this long-term but were hoping that we wouldn't meet Stradivarius and Trueshan. We're not expecting him to beat the superstars but he's absolutely bouncing – I've never seen him like it – and it would be a dream to finish in a place.

Ian Williams, trainer of Reshoun
He's thrown into the deep end and much will depend on what the weather does overnight – the picture of the race will potentially be very different in the morning. At this stage we'd have a very small chance of some place prize-money.
Reporting by Sam Hendry

No significant going change expected

Rain was forecast for York on Thursday night but no significant change is expected in the ground on the third afternoon of the Ebor meeting.

Raceday clerk of the course Anthea Leigh said: "It was spitting at the end of racing and there was a 60 per cent chance of rain on Wednesday evening but a 90 per cent chance of a heavier shower at 9pm this evening.

"We won't be watering on Thursday night and the ground should be similar to Thursday.

"Friday will be dry, bright and sunny before clouding over in the morning and 21C and Saturday will be dry and sunny with a chance of some light showers."

The ground was officially good, good to firm in places on Thursday and among those riding Kieran Shoemark, Andrea Atzeni and Rossa Ryan all called the ground good.

Friday's race previews:

1.50 York: 'He has a better chance than the betting suggests' – Sky Bet Handicap quotes

3.00 York: can Karl Burke land another big race with juvenile 'everybody's talking about'?

3.35 York: 'It would mean the world' – Tate chases 'special' Nunthorpe with Royal Aclaim

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