Stick with Mullins and Skelton to solve puzzle in typically difficult handicap

McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) | 2m1f | 5yo+ | ITV/RTV

This might be one of the most competitive handicap hurdles of the week, but in the last ten years it has not been that difficult to solve. Seven of the last ten winners have been trained by either Willie Mullins or Dan Skelton and nobody else has had a look in over the last six years.

Mullins has the better record of the pair in terms of winners (four) in that period, but a closer look at the figures shows that Skelton has a remarkably better strike-rate than his Irish counterpart.

Skelton’s three winners have come from just nine runners (33 per cent) in the last ten years at prices of 33-1, 12-1 and 8-1, and a £1 bet on all of those representatives yielded a £47 profit.

If you expand the data set to include all of Skelton’s runners in Grade 3 handicap hurdles over 2m1f or shorter since the start of 2013 the figures still stand up, with seven winners from 52 runners. That is a 13 per cent strike-rate and a £1 bet on each yielded a profit of £45.

Skelton won the Imperial Cup at Sandown on Saturday with Langer Dan and he would have been 5lb well-in had he run in this race. However, he has been rerouted to the Martin Pipe in a bid for the bonus and that might be an indication that Skelton feels he has a stronger challenger in the shape of Third Time Lucki, who is a novice making his handicap debut.

Skelton has an impressive strike-rate of 15 per cent with handicap debutants since he started training.

Mullins’ record might not match that of Skelton’s but his figures are still strong. His four winners in the last ten seasons came from 31 runners and, while that is only a 13 per cent strike-rate, backing all of them blind would have yielded a profit of £33.50 to £1 level stakes.

His winners have returned prices of 10-1, 25-1, 20-1 and 11-2 and two of the four would have been considered market first strings. Ruby Walsh and Barry Geraghty rode the pair, but Paul Townend was on the other two and he appears to have chosen long-time favourite Ganapathi.

He is another novice handicap debutant, but Mullins’ record with such runners is only moderate. Since 2011, he is just seven per cent with such types in British handicap hurdles.

Mullins also runs four others, Buildmeupbuttercup, Ciel De Neige, Getaway Gorgeous and Captain Kangaroo, and it is interesting he applies cheekpieces for Ciel De Neige. The Irish maestro is 3-9 with runners wearing that headgear for the first time since the start of 2020.

With 26 runners going to post jockeyship could play a big part in the outcome and in the last ten years Bridget Andrews is the only rider to have won it with a claim. That sole winner came from 54 runners ridden by jockeys with an allowance (two per cent; -£20 to £1 stakes).

Ruby Walsh, AP McCoy, Bryan Cooper, Daryl Jacob, Paul Townend (twice), Harry Skelton (twice) and Barry Geraghty are the other nine winning riders in the last ten years, so experience in the plate is clearly an advantage. It may pay to stick with the professionals.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

Goshen team seek compensation with Fifty Ball

A little bit of luck for Fifty Ball in the County Hurdle would mean a lot for Steven Packham as its been in short supply for the owner over the last couple of seasons.

That has certainly been the case with his star performer Goshen, whose errant run in the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday came 12 months after defeat was snatched from the jaws of victory following a mistake at the last in the Triumph Hurdle.

Two days on from Goshen’s waywardness – Packham is still unsure as to why he hung away his chance – although he pointed towards the horse’s unusual behaviour before the race as a possible indicator that something had upset him.

“It was just too much of a bad thing to say he cannot go left-handed, there must’ve been something else wrong and I’m sure they’ll find that out,” he said.

“Gary and Jamie said to me independently they felt he wasn’t himself. He’s normally such a placid horse but he wouldn’t go into the paddock and wasn’t too keen going down the chute, so whether he didn’t like Cheltenham I don’t know. I hope that’s not the case as it’s the place we all want to be.”

Packham and the Moores bid to end the week in a better way than it started with Fifty Ball, who was second in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury last time, and the owner is optimistic about his chances.

He added: “We hope he’ll improve from Newbury as he had a bit of an infection on his neck before that race and had to have a little bit of a quieter week just before it took place. He’s got to have a good chance in this if he does improve like we think we will.”

What they say

Denise Foster, trainer of Petit Mouchoir, Eclair De Beaufeu & Saint D’Oroux
Petit Mouchoir's last few runs would suggest this was the right race for him to go for rather than the Champion Hurdle. He's run well in competitive handicaps with big weights in the past. Eclair De Beaufeu ran well in this race a couple of years ago. His form has been in and out, but he's shown enough to say he can be a force in a good handicap like this. Saint D'Oroux arrived here on the back of a very good run at Leopardstown. He won't be too far away.

Ben Pauling, trainer of Global Citizen
He's been a bit of a tricky horse to train this season. He's not quite been on song. After he flopped in the Desert Orchid we found a few niggles that hopefully we've sorted out. He was very good over hurdles and on that form he's well handicapped. He seems exceptionally well at home and we're happier with him than we've been in a long time. He has an exciting chance and the ground should be in his favour.

Liz Doyle, trainer of Cayd Boy
He has plenty of weight. They put him up three pounds for coming over here. I’m looking forward to running him on nice ground. He’s a speed horse and this will be the first time he’s had nice ground.

Alan King, trainer of Edwardstone
I was delighted with his run in the Betfair Hurdle, I'm sure he'll come on again for that fine effort in a big field of handicappers and I'm certain he's in very good form. However, my gut feeling is he's probably not handicapped to win a race like this.

Joseph O’Brien, trainer of Darasso
Any rain that falls would be a help to him and we're looking for a good run. He's dropping in class.

Willie Mullins, trainer of Buildmeupbuttercup, Ciel De Neige, Ganapathi, Getaway Gorgeous & Captain Kangaroo
Ganapathi comes here with probably a nice mark but lacking a little in experience. But from this rating he could improve with a trouble-free run and has the ability to go very close in this. Buildmeupbuttercup has run very well here in the past and was fourth in this last year. I think drying ground will benefit her hugely and she’s one for each-way punters. Ciel De Neige will benefit from the cheekpieces being fitted and is a horse that promises to have a big day and maybe the headgear will help him achieve that goal. He comes here fit and well and with a bit of luck has every chance. If you go back to the Betfair Hurdle run this time last year that shows you the level of ability he has. Captain Kangaroo gets in here with a nice light weight. He might not have the profile of some of these but he has plenty of experience and is at the right end of the weights so who knows what can happen in this very open race. Getaway Gorgeous has lots of experience over hurdles but always seems to find trouble in her races. However, the ground has come her way and one day she’s going to get a clear run through and will strike. The drying conditions are hugely beneficial for her.

Henry de Bromhead, trainer of Champagne Gold
He's in good form. He's travelled over well and I'm happy with him. He just lacks a bit of experience for a big handicap like this but his last run was good.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Third Time Lucki
He was fourth in the Champion Bumper last year when Appreciate It was just in front of him and we know festival form counts for a lot. He’s in good form and we picked this race for him as we think it’ll suit and the drying ground should too. I think the New course will be better than the Old course but it’s a hyper-competitive race.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Mengli Khan
It’s a very hot race but he’s a seriously talented horse, there’s no doubt about that. What I would say is he probably knows more about racing than the rest of us put together so it’s just a matter of which side of bed he gets out of.

Martin Brassil, trainer of You Raise Me Up
The ground should be perfect and this has been the long-term plan. I would have preferred if he got in off his Irish mark but there’s nothing we can do about that. He should run well.

Gavin Cromwell, trainer of Wolf Prince
We are happy with him at home. He’s probably not very well handicapped and he may have preferred a bit more juice in the ground. His work has been good and we’re hopeful.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Thyme White
The drying ground is the most important thing for him. He ran okay last time and probably needed it a fraction after being off all winter. Good ground would suit him nicely.

Neil Mulholland, trainer of Milkwood
The combination of the softer ground and having to come from a long way back might not have helped him last time at Newbury. He might have used his run getting into the race, but that was my fault and we might do things differently this time. You take that run out and he’d be much shorter for this. The drier the ground the better for him.

Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Gowel Road
He's doing very well and we're pleased with him. He's been very good in his last two starts and I think he's been fairly treated. I think he's got a good chance.

John McConnell, trainer of Anna Bunina
She prefers to go left-handed and the drying ground will be a big help to her. I think she will run better than her odds suggest.

Peter Fahey, trainer of Belfast Banter
The ground drying out will be a huge help and a fast run race is what he wants. He’s a strong travelling horse and hopefully he can come home strong as well. If he was to finish in the money it would be great.
Reporting by Peter Scargill

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4.50 Cheltenham: will switch of festival plan pay off for JP McManus and 'Ballymore horse'?