State Man a certainty for many - but Nicky Henderson 'quite optimistic' his super-sub can lay down a challenge

State Man, rated 8lb superior to his closest rival over hurdles in Ireland, has the chance to secure his legacy on British soil in the Unibet Champion Hurdle.

The only time State Man has been defeated in the last two years came when he ran into a rampant Constitution Hill in this race 12 months ago, but with the reigning champ sidelined with ill health the stage is set for him to dazzle on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival.

Victory would make it four Grade 1 wins from four runs this season for State Man and take his tally of top-level wins to nine, two more than the absent Constitution Hill.

On official ratings he has 10lb to spare over his closest challenger Irish Point and, while he may not have been at his best behind Constitution Hill last year, this is undoubtedly his race to lose and bookmakers make him a general 1-3 shot to get the job done.

"It looks like it could be a great opportunity for him," said trainer Willie Mullins. "He goes there in good shape, Paul Townend has great confidence in him and he’s one of the shortest-priced horses running all week."

Mullins, with 20 runners on day one of the festival alone, has limited his Champion Hurdle team to just two, with Zarak The Brave joining his illustrious stablemate in the day's marquee race.

Mullins added: "I'm not sure soft ground will suit Zarak The Brave and he’ll have to improve to be involved in the business end, but he has every chance of getting into a place."

Henderson optimistic about Iberico's chance

Nicky Henderson is making the best of a rotten situation as he bids for a record-extending tenth win in the Champion Hurdle.

After stable star Constitution Hill was ruled out last week, Henderson and owner JP McManus moved quickly to supplement Iberico Lord for the race and the Lambourn trainer also runs smart mare Luccia.

Iberico Lord, who had been in the mix for Friday's County Hurdle, steps outside of handicap company for the first time this season having easily landed the Greatwood Hurdle over course and distance in November and running away with the competitive Betfair Hurdle at Newbury last month. Anything better than fifth would return a profit on the £18,000 it cost to supplement.

"Obviously we've supplemented on the back of Constitution Hill's defection but I'm quite optimistic," said Henderson. "State Man started in handicaps and Champion Hurdle horses do come through the ranks like that. He loves soft ground so any rain in the morning would be no issue at all. He's already won two big handicaps this season and is entitled to have a shot at this."

Luccia is the lowest-rated runner in the field but did finish in front of Iberico Lord at Ascot in December and will fulfil owner Paul Sandy's dream of having a runner in the Champion Hurdle.

"Rain worries me a bit for Luccia because that's why we pulled her out of the Betfair Hurdle," said Henderson. "It's Paul's dream to run in the Champion Hurdle and she was always going to run. She's a genuine Grade 2 horse and it would be great if we could get her Grade 1-placed."

Despite spending the last two and a half months vying for favouritism for Thursday's Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle, Irish Point adds some much-needed intrigue into the Champion Hurdle.

Irish Point might not have the CV of State Man, but he is a multiple Grade 1 winner and does have solid top-level form over two miles. He traded at an in-running low of 1-33 on the Betfair exchange when collared late by last year's subsequent Supreme winner Marine Nationale in the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse.

He was an emphatic winner of the Mersey Novices' Hurdle at Aintree’s Grand National meeting and his even-more emphatic success in the 2m7½f Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown suggests he is very much on an upward curve.

We know he's versatile, we know he's very good, but is Irish Point good enough to take down State Man? That is the poser for punters.

Trainer Gordon Elliott, who believes Irish Point can be just as good over a shorter trip as he is over a longer one, said: "State Man is obviously brilliant but I would much rather take him on around Cheltenham than at Leopardstown or Punchestown. Our horse has a big future and if he's on the premises turning for home nothing will be coming home stronger. He seems in great form and everything has gone great since you saw him last over Christmas."

What they say

Lorna Fowler, trainer of Colonel Mustard
I know it will be soft ground but it was proper heavy ground at Wincanton, so I think this will suit him better. I wouldn't run a horse here unless I think he has a chance of getting in the money and the blinkers should make a difference to him as he really enjoys them at home. He ran a brilliant race in the County in 2022 and thrives on the big stage.

Kerry Lee, trainer of Nemean Lion
We're mindful and realistic of the task but he's going there on merit and he's going there to compete. He's versatile with the ground and probably more at home in a smaller-field conditions race where he can show his quality. He's going to need to run significantly above his current mark of 151 to be a factor but there's every possibility that there's more to come. We're there to give it our very best shot.

Hughie Morrison, trainer of Not So Sleepy
Testing ground would give us a chance and hopefully the rain which is forecast to arrive on Tuesday morning materialises. We're living the dream and every horse apart from State Man, in theory, is beatable. We're taking him there fresh, which has always been the plan, and the fact his owners have taken the ups and downs and the bumps and bruises with him has meant they've been justly rewarded.

Cheltenham Tuesday previews:

1.30: Tullyhill 'the finished article' says Willie Mullins as he prepares assault on wide-open Supreme 

2.10: 'We put our heads together and came up with the Arkle' - Gaelic Warrior leads Closutton charge 

2.50: 'He looks well handicapped now' - who are the dangers to Ultima favourite Meetingofthewaters? 

4.10: Will 'banker of the week' Lossiemouth handle the step up in trip and land another festival success? 

4.50: 'I think he'll run well at a price' - analysis and trainer quotes for the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle 

5.30: 'I just thought he was made for this' - National Hunt Chase carries extra significance for Willie Mullins 

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