Chacun Pour Soi looks the wrong favourite with Min likely to prove tough to beat

1.25 Leopardstown
Ladbrokes Dublin Chase (Grade 1) | 2m1f | 5yo+ | RTE2/RTV

When I first looked at this event I thought there was only one place to start and that's with the best horse in the race and probable market leader Min. I was therefore surprised when I opened the markets and he was behind Chacun Pour Soi.

Min recorded a Racing Post Rating of 180 at Aintree last April and the now-absent A Plus Tard (170) was still 10lb below that figure when inflicting defeat on Chacun Pour Soi (167) over course and distance last month. Min's figure was achieved over 2m4f and his best form has come at that distance, but he has won this race for two years running and recorded RPRs of 175 and 172 in the process. Chacun Pour Soi needs to improve even to match those ratings.

The big question in this race is whether they can do that as Chacun Pour Soi is certainly open to the kind of improvement needed to jump ahead of Min.

Paul Townend has chosen Chacun Pour Soi ahead of Min and that suggests the stable jockey thinks his mount can take the step up. Chacun Pour Soi is the unexposed runner in the field on just his fourth start in Ireland and several from the Willie Mullins camp appeared to be needing the outing over Christmas, so he should come on for that first run since April.

It's not just a two-horse race because Cilaos Emery is another who boasts a progressive profile. The Grade 1-winning novice hurdler was given an RPR of 166 for slamming Ballyoisin by seven lengths in the Hilly Way at Cork before Christmas and this is only his fourth chase.

In summary, it's possible to make a strong argument that Min should be favourite and with that in mind he has to be the bet at the morning prices. He might be vulnerable to an improver, though, and there are no shortage of those in a fascinating line up for a top-quality Grade 1.

Paul Townend: Champion Chase prospect Chacun Pour Soi needs to bring A-game

Paul Townend did not face an easy task when choosing to ride Chacun Pour Soi over Min, chasing his third win in this race, and Cilaos Emery, who has hardly put a foot wrong this season.

However, the champion rider is keeping the faith with Chacun Pour Soi, who was narrowly beaten beaten by A Plus Tard on his seasonal return over the course and distance over the Christmas period.

"I suppose he will have to come on from his run at Christmas time," Townend said in his weekly blog for Ladbrokes. "I felt he just got tired that day and ran very well for a long time. He did a lot right and there are positives to take from it."

Chacun Pour Soi, widely regarded as one of the most exciting horses in the two-mile chase sphere after producing a scintillating performance in being Defi Du Seuil at Punchestown last spring, hasn't achieved as much as stablemates Cilaos Emery and Min have this season.

However, Townend is hoping the Willie Mullins-trained chaser can overcome the ring rustiness he showed at Christmas and confirm himself Clossutton's leading Champion Chase contender with victory.

He added: "He gained a lot of experience [at Christmas], although it won't be an easy task with Cilaos Emery stepping up to the mark this year and Min being a two-time winner of the race – he is probably going to have to bring his A-game. I won't give up on him yet, though, and I hope he can confirm his form from last year."

What the stats say

This race replaced the old Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown and has essentially only been in existence for two seasons, with Min winning back-to-back editions.

Willie Mullins and Henry de Bromhead, who dominate proceedings in this race, had a good record in the Tied Cottage. Mullins won the race four times, with horses like Douvan and Golden Silver, while De Bromhead landed two runnings on the trot in 2012 and 2013 with Sizing Europe.

What they say

Henry de Bromhead, trainer of Ordinary World and Ornua
Ordinary World has been great for us over the years, ran a cracker at Christmas and hopefully he can run well again. Ornua has been a little bit disappointing but hopefully he'll encounter some better ground and will be able to put his best foot forward again.

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