Smart View: who are the top-rated runners in the Betfred Derby according to our revolutionary racecard?

Racing Post Smart View continues to provide new and experienced punters alike with the insights they need to make fast, intuitive, yet informed decisions. The Smart View card is now available for all British and Irish races through the Racing Post app and will give you as in-depth a steer on Saturday's races at Hexham as they will on the Derby.

If you are coming into the Derby as a high-days-and-holidays fan, you may want to start with the Smart View card. More advanced users have tended to use the intuitive display to quickly check their preconceptions. We all have our preferences when it comes to races like the Derby. Having the cool head of Smart View's algorithm can make sure we do not fall into some of our usual traps.

Whether you want to fixate on an individual attribute you prize, or just want to note the overall scores which are a weighted average of the six attribute scores out of 100, Smart View can be your friend in finding the Derby winner. Here are some examples of how the system's 100 per cent computer-generated scores are reached.

• Download a PDF of the full Smart View racecard for the Derby
• 4.30 Epsom, Saturday: Betfred Derby full racecard and betting

The Smart View top-rated runners in the Betfred Derby

1 City Of Troy
2 Los Angeles
3 Ancient Wisdom

For the most part, the Derby should not get any special treatment from punters. Smart View's calculation reacts to the special characteristics of a race, but does so at the margins. As a result, City Of Troy's overwhelming form edge on his rivals means he is the Smart View selection. As well as his ability score, he tops the scale on trainer and jockey, while he scores around the field average on the other three attributes. Los Angeles is helped into second by his potential and his stamina-laden pedigree, while Ancient Wisdom filling third place is a reminder he has not done much wrong despite being a beaten favourite in the Dante.

Key Smart View scores to note

Los Angeles
Distance score: 100

As in most years, the vast majority of Derby runners are trying the 1m4f trip for the first time. Punters have to gather the clues to separate the likely stayers from the short-runners. The Smart View engine uses pedigrees and each horse's in-running comments to calculate their likelihood of staying. It has determined the strapping Los Angeles to be the most likely to thrive at the trip. 

He is by Camelot, whose progeny tend to stay well, and both of his full brothers ran their best race at this distance. Combined with him 'staying on' to win at Leopardstown last time, his stamina credentials are excellent and he is one colt who is likely to hit the line hard in the Derby.

Euphoric
Course score: 67

Unlike a human, who may find making a guess on incomplete information to be too tempting, the Smart View engine expresses uncertainty without embarrassment when it comes to the course scores at Epsom. This is a unique track, and few of these horses have faced anything like it. It is no coincidence Bellum Justum, who won a trial here in April, gets 100 with the rest mainly clustered around the 70 mark.

Euphoric is pulled out as a good example of how the system makes marginal calls. His form is all at flat or otherwise galloping tracks: Navan, Cork and Leopardstown. These are a world away from sharp, undulating Epsom and so the system expresses an extra degree of doubt when it comes to his suitability to the course.

City Of Troy
Ability score: 100

Normally when I write the Derby analysis, I stress we often get too far into the minutiae of the race and that the best horse often wins, as long as they stay. I didn't say that this year, mainly because I don't fancy City Of Troy. That is a human bias. The Smart View engine is much more impassive, and it reminds punters that last year's champion juvenile remains the one to catch on form, to say the least.

City Of Troy is 9lb clear on weight-adjusted Racing Post Ratings, which are the main component of the ability score. There are other considerations, too, which is why Los Angeles comes out second on ability even though Ancient Wisdom and Ambiente Friendly have higher RPRs than he does.

Ambiente Friendly
Trainer score: 92

Ambiente Friendly is popular on the Racing Post tipping desk. Since he won his trial at Lingfield, we have been asking: how much shorter would he be if he were trained by Aidan O'Brien or Sir Michael Stoute?

Smart View answers this question more directly. What is the difference between an O'Brien or a Stoute and Ambiente Friendly's trainer James Fanshawe? Smart View considers career records, course strike-rates, even records in this specific race type. It comes up with a logical conclusion: all else being equal, the very best trainers have only a slight edge over good ones. No one should be put off Ambiente Friendly because of the person who will saddle him.

Read these next:

2024 Betfred Derby at Epsom: the runners, the odds, the verdict 

2024 Betfred Derby tips and predictions: why this horse can win at Epsom 

Who will win the 2024 Betfred Derby at Epsom based on previous trends? 

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