Smart chasers and Flat performers clash in fascinating handicap hurdle

1.55 Musselburgh
Betway Hogmaneigh Handicap Hurdle | 1m7½f | 4yo+ | ITV/RTV

This is a fascinating race because it features several hurdlers who have yet to show their best form in this discipline, but who have shown plenty of talent on either the Flat or over fences.

If this were a Flat race, Blakeney Point (94) would be most favoured by these weights, but if it were a chase Voix Du Reve (rated 155 over fences) might be the one. So how do we measure their respective ability over hurdles?

It is a bit easier with Voix Du Reve than for the others. He is rated a 10lb worse hurdler than chaser based on 19 previous runs and that is enough to convince me he is up against it.

It is a bone of contention as to how much you should add to a horse's Flat rating to get an idea of what they might be capable of achieving over hurdles. It seems to vary between 30lb-50lb.

I work on an estimate of 35lb and if that is anywhere near accurate, Blakeney Point could be capable of reaching a mark of 129 (rated 125).

Miranda has already proven herself far better over hurdles than she is on the Flat, where she wasn't bad either (rated 91). She is rated 52lb higher over hurdles, having won four of her seven starts at the discipline since joining Paul Nicholls, but she needs to improve again.

Her latest victory at Ludlow was good enough for a Racing Post Rating of 144 and that suggests she might not have loads in hand of her official mark, which is just 1lb lower at 143.

However, Nicholls rarely leaves Musselburgh without success. He has 16 winners from 35 runners (46 per cent) at the track in the last five seasons for a £1 level-stake profit of £16.28.

Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

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What they say

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Miranda
She ran well at Musselburgh on her sole previous visit. She's up in the weights, but I think she's got a nice chance.

Iain Jardine, trainer of Voix Du Reve
We experimented with a spin on the Flat last time, and I was quite pleased with the way he ran. He has lots of weight, but if you go back a few years he was better than these. If we can squeeze a bit more out of him he'll be competitive.

Voix Du Reve: the ex-Willie Mullins-trained star, pictured here on his way to victory in the Ryanair Gold Cup at Fairyhouse, is now trained by Iain Jardine in the Scottish BordersCredit: Patrick McCann

Nicky Richards, trainer of Caius Marcius
He surprised us a bit at Doncaster as we didn't think he'd like the soft ground. He seems in grand order and, while he ideally might want a bit further round Musselburgh, it will be the first time in ages he's carried just 11st 4lb. He'll be competitive.

Michael Scudamore, trainer of Rosie And Millie
She has run two good races in two very competitive handicaps lately. On paper this is a race which should suit, and she goes there with every chance.

Donald McCain, trainer of Blakeney Point
He was impressive at Bangor. Things haven't quite worked out for him since, but it was a step back in the right direction last time and I'm happy to take a punt at a nice handicap like this.

Tim Vaughan, trainer of Manucci
He's a big, progressive horse with some nice form. He's been training well, and I'm keen to try him in a nice race.

Reporting by Richard Birch

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