Should you ignore the Frankie factor? Robbie Wilders on why Jersey favourite Covey is too short in the market

Book Frankie Dettori to ride your horse this week and you can wave goodbye to any early value. Tuesday’s Wolferton Stakes, when Dettori chose to ride Saga over higher-rated John and Thady Gosden-trained stablemate Francesco Clemente, is the prime example of that.

Saga opened up at around 3-1 once final declarations were confirmed and Francesco Clemente was available at double those odds. By the time the race began Saga had drifted to an SP of 9-1 and the implied lesser-fancied Gosden runner came in for support, returning a 7-2 SP.

The layers are similarly wary of a Dettori winner on his final day at Royal Ascot aboard Jersey Stakes favourite Covey, whose early market dominance is way off the mark in such a deep race.

Covey steps out of handicap company after a convincing victory in Haydock’s Silver Bowl off a mark of 90. That is usually an informative race and Covey’s stablemate Mighty Ulysses finished runner-up in it before going close in the St James’s Palace last year. However, the horses in behind have subsequent form figures of 60679 and Covey was only carrying 8st 11lb.

BHA ratings also only have Covey as the tenth best horse in the Jersey. He is crying out to be taken on and there are dangers drawn across the width of the track.

Course form can never be underestimated at Ascot and Holloway Boy (stall 2) deserves an honourable mention. Any horse can be forgiven a poor run in the 2,000 Guineas and this colt’s juvenile form reads well. A return to the scene of his debut Chesham success could spark a resurgence.

On the other wing, high-class filly Olivia Maralda (15) stuck out like a seven-furlong specialist when an easy winner at Epsom last time. Another to throw in is Quar Shamar for the often underestimated Jessica Harrington. This lightly raced son of Shamardal travelled nicely into the Irish 2,000 Guineas in finishing sixth having not experienced the clearest of runs. That form has been boosted this week.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders

Varian fires two in bid to win second Jersey

Roger Varian has hit the board this week with Royal Champion and King Of Steel and runs two here in a bid to yet again deny the powerful yards of Aidan O'Brien and John and Thady Gosden.

The trainer won the race with Molatham in 2020 and is represented by another Shadwell talent this time in the unbeaten Enfjaar, while his other runner, Olivia Maralda, staked her claim for this Group 3 when successful in the Surrey Stakes on Oaks day.

Varian said: "I thought Olivia Maralda's run in the Guineas was very good. She was probably fourth best before just not getting home on the soft ground and she backed it up with an authoritative win at Epsom. It will be a stronger field on Saturday, but seven furlongs on fast ground at a track like Ascot should suit her very well."

Enfjaar comes into this after low-key wins at Newmarket and Chelmsford, but he is held in lofty regard by Varian, who believes the colt possesses the qualities needed to be competitive but may be lacking the requisite experience.

"Enfjaar is a lovely horse," Varian said. "I think the stiff seven will suit him. He has only had two runs so didn't qualify for a Britannia. He's got a good cruising speed and I think he'll hit the line strong, but whether he will be streetwise enough for a test like this at this stage in his career we'll have to see."

Roger Varian: two fancied contendersCredit: Edward Whitaker

What they say

Charlie Appleby, trainer of Mysterious Night
We're very happy with Mysterious Night, who should be suited by the stiff seven furlongs at Ascot. He goes into this in good order, although a 5lb penalty will make life harder.

Aidan O'Brien, trainer of The Antarctic and Age Of Kings
The Antarctic has never tried this far, but we always thought he would stay seven furlongs and he hit the line well at Naas last time. He's in good form. We didn't think Age Of Kings ran too badly in the Guineas given it was his first run back and the calibre of the race. This might be his trip.

Thady Gosden, joint-trainer of Covey
He's progressed well through the year and has improved with every start. He won a competitive handicap at Haydock last time when leading from pillar to post and certainly deserves the step up into Group 3 company.

Jessica Harrington, trainer of Quar Shamar
He ran a really solid race in the Irish 2,000 Guineas despite not getting the clearest of runs. It was a big step up from a maiden into a Classic and he'll be a lot more streetwise here. We'd be hopeful of him going very close.

Eve Johnson Houghton, trainer of Streets Of Gold
He got stuck in the mud at Newbury and then absolutely hated the track at Epsom. I thought Charlie [Bishop] was going to pull him up after a few furlongs he was moving that badly, but once he hit the hill he shook himself off and was catching them hand over fist at the line. I think the track will suit him and he'll run really well. He's in great form.

Eve Johnson Houghton: runs Streets Of Gold in the Jersey StakesCredit: Edward Whitaker

Jack Davison, trainer of Thunderbear
We think he's a seven-furlong horse in the making. He loves to travel and to track horses and we've got the absolute master of riding horses like that on board in Jamie Spencer so it's going to be a lot of fun.

James Ferguson, trainer of Zoology
He’s done nothing wrong and beat the favourite Covey at Southwell in April. He finished a very creditable fourth in the Greenham on unsuitable ground and I expect him to massively outrun his odds.
Reporting by Maddy Playle

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