'She’s got a very good chance' - can Queens Gamble continue her step towards Cheltenham with Listed success?

Queens Gamble is a clear favourite to land this Listed event on her next step towards the Mares' Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in March but official ratings and Racing Post Ratings paint a different picture to the market expectations.

The Harry Derham-trained five-year-old arrives with a 2-2 record over hurdles and so does Casa No Mento, who is rated 6lb higher by the handicapper. Our Racing Post Ratings team believe there is nothing to split the pair.

Queens Gamble recorded a RPR of 122 when winning on her first start since a summer break at Kempton last month and Derham stressed she was far from fully wound up for her return.

She is a 16-1 chance for the Mares' Novices' Hurdle – a race her trainer feels is "absolutely made for her and the time we need to have her right" – while Casa No Mento is 50-1 with bet365 and has seemingly been a little overlooked in this division.

It has been the manner in which the Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained mare has been winning that has been most impressive. She made all with the minimum of fuss at Market Rasen in September and showed a fine turn of foot to defy a penalty at Hereford most recently, recording a RPR of 122.

Willy Twiston-Davies pinpointed this race as her "big aim" straight after her Hereford success, and while the slight ease in the ground might not enable her to show all of her speed, she does boast soft and heavy-ground form from her bumper days.

Casa No Mento was beaten a neck by the reopposing Larchmont Lass in a Listed bumper at Sandown last season, and the Paul Nicholls-trained mare cannot be dismissed despite needing to take a considerable step forward from her hurdling debut second, but Twiston-Davies fields a nice prospect who can make a race of it with the favourite.
Analysis by Jack Haynes

What they say

Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Casa No Mento
She’s done nothing wrong in her life and she’s been very good in both of her hurdle races this season. She’s a lovely mare and the highest-rated horse in the race, so let’s hope those figures are right!

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Larchmont Lass
She could do with it raining – the wetter the better for her. She ran all right last time and is a capable mare who won a Listed race last season, but I think that suggests she wants either really testing ground or two and a half miles.

Paul Nicholls: runs Larchmont Lass at Taunton on SaturdayCredit: GROSSICK RACING

Jamie Snowden, trainer of Obsessedwithyou
There are only six runners, with one being quite a big outsider, so if she can get some black type by being in the first three that would be great. She’s a decent mare and getting a place in this would serve her well for the future too.

Harry Derham, trainer of Queens Gamble
I think she’s got a very good chance. Our preferred option over Christmas was to go for a mares' race at Newbury, but the ground is looking better for her at Taunton and it’s a nice prize to be aiming at.
Reporting by Peter Scargill

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